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Samobor vs Kastela Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 16 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 95-83
25-14 35-25 16-23 19-21
Position#1
Record17-3
FormWLWWL
Points / game88.4
Allowed / game80.5
Samobor 🏆
Croatia
vs
Kastela
Croatia
Position#3
Record14-6
FormLLWWW
Points / game86.2
Allowed / game72.5
CroatiaPrva LigaRound 21· Sportska dvorana Samobor
Other2024-25
Meetings · Samobor v Kastela
16 Mar 2025
SAMO95
KAST83
11 Nov 2023
SAMO52
KAST89
19 Nov 2022
SAMO66
KAST86
05 Feb 2022
SAMO65
KAST81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Samobor winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Kastela winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SamoborCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSamobor
Date
Competition
Jazine
#5
W
100-94
100
94
+6
102avg 81
A11/01
Prva Liga
Skrljevo
#4
W
96-88
96
88
+8
94avg 81
H15/01
Prva Liga
Marsonia
#6
W
100-80
100
80
+20
102avg 81
H19/01
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#12
W
84-79
84
79
+5
75avg 81
H25/01
Prva Liga
Hermes
#14
W
100-94
100
94
+6
98avg 81
A01/02
Prva Liga
KK Zagreb
#8
W
95-64
95
64
+31
89avg 81
H08/02
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
L
88-94
88
94
-6
84avg 81
A16/02
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#11
W
68-66
68
66
+2
61avg 81
H23/02
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#9
W
82-70
82
70
+12
81avg 81
A01/03
Prva Liga
Omis
#10
L
90-95
90
95
-5
80avg 81
H08/03
Prva Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-27
28-17
23-18
27-32
23-19
35-17
22-30
16-22
22-24
25-24
28-7
25-25
29-16
22-21
14-15
19-27
23-24
26-17
23-23
28-30
23-20
22-13
32-17
18-14
22-22
31-31
19-21
16-20
18-18
15-18
19-12
16-18
25-19
18-19
18-9
21-23
22-30
19-21
22-18
27-26
172.7Avg total
90.3Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)88.480.5168.9+8.085%
Season at home (11)87.076.0163.0+11.091%
Season away (9)90.185.9176.0+4.278%
Last 10 (10)90.382.4172.7+7.980%
Last 5 (5)84.677.8162.4+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)73.280.2153.5-7.025%
vs Similar ◀ (5)92.092.2184.2-0.280%
vs Weaker (20)89.079.0168.0+9.990%
This opponent (Kastela) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KastelaCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKastela
Date
Competition
KK Zagreb
#8
L
69-71
69
71
-2
64avg 83
A15/01
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
L
93-94
93
94
-1
92avg 83
A19/01
Prva Liga
Skrljevo
#4
W
82-69
82
69
+13
85avg 83
H25/01
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#11
W
64-52
64
52
+12
59avg 83
A01/02
Prva Liga
Jazine
#5
W
100-92
100
92
+8
102avg 83
H08/02
Prva Liga
Alkar
#2
L
49-77
49
77
-28
36avg 83
H12/02
Croatian Cup
Sonik Puntamika
#9
L
64-74
64
74
-10
53avg 83
A16/02
Prva Liga
Marsonia
#6
W
86-70
86
70
+16
94avg 83
H23/02
Prva Liga
Omis
#10
W
93-79
93
79
+14
98avg 83
A01/03
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#12
W
108-74
108
74
+34
112avg 83
H08/03
Prva Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-27
22-13
16-16
14-15
29-24
28-21
18-20
18-29
17-22
21-18
14-22
30-7
12-9
19-20
12-12
21-11
24-24
24-31
27-21
25-16
9-22
11-17
20-20
9-18
15-17
12-20
19-16
18-21
21-12
18-12
24-22
23-24
25-20
31-17
19-26
18-16
28-21
28-20
26-12
26-21
156.0Avg total
80.8Scored
75.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)86.272.5158.8+13.870%
Season at home (11)92.271.1163.3+21.191%
Season away (9)79.074.2153.2+4.844%
Last 10 (10)80.875.2156.0+5.660%
Last 5 (5)80.074.8154.8+5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)59.580.5140.0-21.00%
vs Similar ◀ (6)74.372.2146.5+2.233%
vs Weaker (21)86.173.7159.8+12.576%
This opponent (Samobor) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: +4.3+4.3Q2: +2.5+2.5Q3Q3: +5.0+5.0Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -2.4-2.4Q4: +2.4+2.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: +4.3+4.3Q2: +2.5+2.5Q3Q3: +5.0+5.0Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -2.4-2.4Q4: +2.4+2.4
SamoborKastela
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SamoborLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jazine
#5
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A11/01
Prva Liga
Skrljevo
#4
W
58-36
58
36
+22
H15/01
Prva Liga
Marsonia
#6
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H19/01
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#12
W
51-37
51
37
+14
H25/01
Prva Liga
Hermes
#14
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A01/02
Prva Liga
KK Zagreb
#8
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H08/02
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A16/02
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#11
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H23/02
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#9
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A01/03
Prva Liga
Omis
#10
L
41-51
41
51
-10
H08/03
Prva Liga
88.7Avg total
47.0Scored
41.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.441.587.0+3.957%-
Last 30 at home (17)45.139.184.2+6.165%-
Last 30 away (13)45.844.890.6+1.146%-
Last 10 (10)47.041.788.7+5.360%-
Last 5 (5)43.042.285.2+0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)41.238.880.0+2.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)45.842.888.6+3.060%-
vs Weaker (20)46.441.587.9+4.960%-
This opponent (Kastela) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KastelaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
KK Zagreb
#8
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A15/01
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A19/01
Prva Liga
Skrljevo
#4
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H25/01
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#11
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A01/02
Prva Liga
Jazine
#5
L
48-55
48
55
-7
H08/02
Prva Liga
Alkar
#2
L
20-39
20
39
-19
H12/02
Croatian Cup
Sonik Puntamika
#9
L
27-37
27
37
-10
A16/02
Prva Liga
Marsonia
#6
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H23/02
Prva Liga
Omis
#10
W
56-37
56
37
+19
A01/03
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#12
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H08/03
Prva Liga
79.8Avg total
41.1Scored
38.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.936.476.3+3.553%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.936.576.5+3.447%-
Last 30 away (13)39.836.276.1+3.662%-
Last 10 (10)41.138.779.8+2.450%-
Last 5 (5)39.635.675.2+4.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)26.042.068.0-16.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)34.737.572.2-2.833%-
vs Weaker (21)42.435.577.9+7.062%-
This opponent (Samobor) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Samobortheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Samobor: 89.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.2 points a game
50%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.823.8
59.8%
52.0%47.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.610.1
34.1%
33.7%30.3
🏀 Free throws15.911.8
74.2%
70.4%11.8
They take 69.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Kastelatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Kastela: 79.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws7.8 pts a game · 10% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.2 points a game
50%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.020.7
57.5%
52.0%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.810.2
35.4%
33.7%30.6
🏀 Free throws10.97.8
71.6%
70.4%7.8
They take 64.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Samobor
LWWLWWWWWW
Kastela
WWWLLWWWLL
#1
League position
#3
+10.8
Net rating
+7.5
114.3
Offensive rating
106.5
103.5
Defensive rating
99.0
56.1%
Effective FG%
55.6%
50.3%
Opp. effective FG%
48.6%
15.9%
Turnover %
19.1%
28.7%
Off. rebound %
26.4%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.17
34.1%
3-point %
35.4%
64.3%
Assist %
72.5%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence114.3 · 106.5Defence103.5 · 99.0Shooting56.1% · 55.6%3-point %34.1% · 35.4%Ball care15.9% · 19.1%Off. rebounds28.7% · 26.4%Free throws0.23 · 0.17Form (last 10/10)80% · 60%
■ Samobor   ■ Kastela
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Samobor wins
6
Kastela wins
DateGameScore
01/12/24Kastela v Samobor102-72
17/02/24Kastela v Samobor71-72
11/11/23Samobor v Kastela52-89
19/02/23Kastela v Samobor103-65
19/11/22Samobor v Kastela66-86
05/02/22Samobor v Kastela65-81
07/11/21Kastela v Samobor71-66
Samoborlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/25HOmis90-95
01/03/25ASonik Puntamika82-70
23/02/25HCrikvenica68-66
16/02/25AMladost88-94
08/02/25HKK Zagreb95-64
01/02/25AHermes100-94
25/01/25HDakovo84-79
19/01/25HMarsonia100-80
15/01/25HSkrljevo96-88
11/01/25AJazine100-94
Kastelalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/25HDakovo108-74
01/03/25AOmis93-79
23/02/25HMarsonia86-70
16/02/25ASonik Puntamika64-74
12/02/25HAlkar49-77
08/02/25HJazine100-92
01/02/25ACrikvenica64-52
25/01/25HSkrljevo82-69
19/01/25AMladost93-94
15/01/25AKK Zagreb69-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Samobor
Prva Liga 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL85%
HomeWWWWL91%
AwayLWWLW78%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20119
Win %85%91%78%
Points / game88.487.090.1
Allowed / game80.576.085.9
Point differential+8.0+11.0+4.2
Avg total168.8163.0176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%45%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)75% (4)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Kastela
Prva Liga 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW70%
HomeLWWWW91%
AwayLLWLW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20119
Win %70%91%44%
Points / game86.292.279.0
Allowed / game72.571.174.2
Point differential+13.8+21.1+4.8
Avg total158.8163.3153.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%73%44%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)50% (2)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Samobor2017385%88.480.5+8.0
2 Jazine2115671%91.981.9+10.0
3 Skrljevo2115671%90.881.0+9.9
4 Mladost2115671%82.777.0+5.7
5 Kastela2014670%86.272.5+13.8
6 Marsonia2112957%85.184.0+1.0
7 KK Zagreb21101148%78.077.4+0.6
8 Gorica21101148%79.882.3-2.5
9 Sonik Puntamika2191243%73.174.0-0.8
10 Omis2181338%76.478.9-2.4
11 Bosco2161529%73.783.6-9.9
12 Crikvenica2161529%66.977.5-10.6
13 Dakovo2151624%76.687.0-10.4
14 Hermes2141719%77.388.5-11.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Samobor2535161995
Kastela1425232183
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