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San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 15 Oct 2016
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 100-108
24-30 24-25 20-33 32-20
Position#2
Record3-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game92.2
Allowed / game88.0
vs
Position#13
Record2-1
FormLLWLW
Points / game109.0
Allowed / game101.3
USANBA· AT&T Center
NBA2016-17
Meetings · San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat
20 Jan 2027
SAS v MIA
upcoming
30 Oct 2025
SAS107
MIA101
01 Feb 2025
SAS103
MIA105
12 Nov 2023
SAS113
MIA118
13 Oct 2023
SAS120
MIA104
17 Dec 2022
SAS101
MIA111
03 Feb 2022
SAS95
MIA112
08 Oct 2021
SAS105
MIA109
21 Apr 2021
SAS87
MIA107
19 Jan 2020
SAS107
MIA102
20 Mar 2019
SAS105
MIA110
30 Sep 2018
SAS104
MIA100
06 Dec 2017
SAS117
MIA105
14 Nov 2016
SAS94
MIA90
14 Oct 2016
SAS100
MIA108
23 Mar 2016
SAS112
MIA88
06 Feb 2015
SAS98
MIA85
18 Oct 2014
SAS108
MIA111
15 Jun 2014
SAS104
MIA87
08 Jun 2014
SAS96
MIA98
05 Jun 2014
SAS110
MIA95
06 Mar 2014
SAS111
MIA87
16 Jun 2013
SAS114
MIA104
13 Jun 2013
SAS93
MIA109
11 Jun 2013
SAS113
MIA77
31 Mar 2013
SAS86
MIA88
04 Mar 2011
SAS125
MIA95
09 Oct 2010
SAS90
MIA73
31 Dec 2009
SAS108
MIA78
07 Nov 2008
SAS83
MIA99
24 Oct 2008
SAS93
MIA96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

San Antonio Spurs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

San Antonio SpursUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#1
L
86-87
86
87
-1
H07/07
NBA - Utah Summer League
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
63-61
63
61
+2
A10/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
85-69
85
69
+16
A11/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Chicago Bulls
#1
L
76-79
76
79
-3
A13/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Minnesota Timberwolves
#14
L
71-80
71
80
-9
H13/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Sacramento Kings
#24
W
90-86 OT
90
86
+4
H15/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Phoenix Suns
#28
L
86-91
86
91
-5
A04/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#11
W
102-91
102
91
+11
H09/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
86-81
86
81
+5
A10/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
95-89
95
89
+6
A12/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-27
26-18
21-23
21-19
14-18
13-15
25-19
11-9
18-9
30-24
13-17
24-19
20-14
21-25
18-21
17-19
19-28
17-19
21-24
14-9
15-19
20-23
21-24
28-18
30-20
21-20
18-33
17-18
26-21
26-24
26-23
24-23
24-24
25-14
14-19
23-24
21-15
18-27
29-25
27-22
165.4Avg total
84.0Scored
81.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)92.288.0180.2+4.275%
Season at home (1)102.091.0193.0+11.0100%
Season away (3)89.087.0176.0+2.067%
Last 10 (10)84.081.4165.4+2.660%
Last 5 (5)91.887.6179.4+4.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)76.079.0155.0-3.00%
vs Similar (11)95.897.6193.5-1.827%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)93.884.3178.1+9.489%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#3
L
72-86
72
86
-14
A08/07
NBA Orlando Summer League
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
64-83
64
83
-19
H10/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Denver Nuggets
#5
W
92-81
92
81
+11
A12/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Phoenix Suns
#4
W
80-71
80
71
+9
A12/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
81-77
81
77
+4
H13/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Phoenix Suns
#4
L
74-77
74
77
-3
A14/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Philadelphia 76ers
#19
L
66-74
66
74
-8
H16/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Washington Wizards
#8
W
106-95
106
95
+11
A04/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
100-109
100
109
-9
H09/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#30
W
121-100
121
100
+21
H11/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-15
19-23
18-27
17-21
15-19
18-17
18-21
13-26
19-19
20-25
27-21
26-16
15-16
23-17
24-13
18-25
20-19
23-17
14-25
24-16
23-23
14-23
16-14
21-17
20-21
17-22
16-20
13-11
35-22
26-22
25-26
20-25
23-23
39-24
23-41
15-21
27-26
28-33
38-17
28-24
170.9Avg total
85.6Scored
85.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)109.0101.3210.3+7.767%
Season at home (2)110.5104.5215.0+6.050%
Season away (1)106.095.0201.0+11.0100%
Last 10 (10)85.685.3170.9+0.350%
Last 5 (5)93.491.0184.4+2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)79.077.5156.5+1.550%
vs Similar (23)91.291.1182.3+0.143%
vs Weaker (5)90.272.8163.0+17.4100%
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: -0.6-0.6Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: -0.7-0.7
San Antonio SpursMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
San Antonio SpursLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#1
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H07/07
NBA - Utah Summer League
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
27-33
27
33
-6
A10/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
48-33
48
33
+15
A11/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Chicago Bulls
#1
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A13/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Minnesota Timberwolves
#14
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H13/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Sacramento Kings
#24
L
35-42
35
42
-7
H15/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
51-40
51
40
+11
A04/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#11
W
52-45
52
45
+7
H09/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
49-38
49
38
+11
A10/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A12/10
NBA
82.6Avg total
42.2Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.343.188.4+2.263%-
Last 30 at home (14)47.443.490.8+4.157%-
Last 30 away (16)43.442.986.4+0.569%-
Last 10 (10)42.240.482.6+1.850%-
Last 5 (5)45.241.486.6+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)41.039.080.0+2.0100%-
vs Similar (11)45.746.692.4-0.936%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)45.341.286.5+4.178%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#3
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A08/07
NBA Orlando Summer League
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H10/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Denver Nuggets
#5
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A12/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Phoenix Suns
#4
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A12/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H13/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Phoenix Suns
#4
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A14/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Philadelphia 76ers
#19
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H16/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Washington Wizards
#8
W
61-44
61
44
+17
A04/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
62-47
62
47
+15
H09/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#30
L
55-59
55
59
-4
H11/10
NBA
86.8Avg total
44.2Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.744.190.8+2.647%-
Last 30 at home (14)48.244.993.1+3.357%-
Last 30 away (16)45.443.488.8+1.938%-
Last 10 (10)44.242.686.8+1.640%-
Last 5 (5)50.447.898.2+2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)38.043.581.5-5.50%-
vs Similar (23)47.545.492.9+2.143%-
vs Weaker (5)46.438.685.0+7.880%-
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
San Antonio Spurstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

San Antonio Spurs: 97.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.2 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers65.329.6
45.3%
50.2%59.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.17.7
40.3%
35.7%23.1
🏀 Free throws19.515.4
79.0%
77.0%15.4
They take 84.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 19.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 23% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 98.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀62%
🏀🏀🏀21%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.6 pts a game · 62% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 21% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.730.8
50.7%
50.2%61.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.16.9
34.3%
35.7%20.7
🏀 Free throws22.416.6
74.1%
77.0%16.6
They take 80.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 25% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Oct 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
San Antonio Spurs
WWWLWLLWWL
Miami Heat
WLWLLWWWLL
#2
League position
#13
+2.1
Net rating
+0.5
100.5
Offensive rating
101.9
98.5
Defensive rating
101.3
48.8%
Effective FG%
50.9%
47.0%
Opp. effective FG%
46.5%
13.2%
Turnover %
14.2%
19.5%
Off. rebound %
20.5%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.28
40.3%
3-point %
34.3%
56.6%
Assist %
44.3%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence100.5 · 101.9Defence98.5 · 101.3Shooting48.8% · 50.9%3-point %40.3% · 34.3%Ball care13.2% · 14.2%Off. rebounds19.5% · 20.5%Free throws0.23 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ San Antonio Spurs   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
San Antonio Spurs wins
3
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/10/16AOrlando Magic95-89
10/10/16ADetroit Pistons86-81
09/10/16HAtlanta Hawks102-91
04/10/16APhoenix Suns86-91
15/07/16HSacramento Kings90-86 OT
13/07/16HMinnesota Timberwolves71-80
13/07/16AChicago Bulls76-79
11/07/16APortland Trail Blazers85-69
10/07/16AGolden State Warriors63-61
07/07/16HBoston Celtics86-87
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/10/16HBrooklyn Nets121-100
09/10/16HMinnesota Timberwolves100-109
04/10/16AWashington Wizards106-95
16/07/16HPhiladelphia 76ers66-74
14/07/16APhoenix Suns74-77
13/07/16HNew Orleans Pelicans81-77
12/07/16APhoenix Suns80-71
12/07/16ADenver Nuggets92-81
10/07/16HDallas Mavericks64-83
08/07/16AOklahoma City Thunder72-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %75%100%67%
Points / game92.2102.089.0
Allowed / game88.091.087.0
Point differential+4.2+11.0+2.0
Avg total180.2193.0176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeLW50%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%50%100%
Points / game109.0110.5106.0
Allowed / game101.3104.595.0
Point differential+7.7+6.0+11.0
Avg total210.3215.0201.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%50%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Houston Rockets330100%123.0108.0+15.0
2 Boston Celtics43175%100.091.8+8.2
3 Memphis Grizzlies43175%104.096.5+7.5
4 San Antonio Spurs43175%92.288.0+4.2
5 Portland Trail Blazers43175%107.5103.5+4.0
6 Golden State Warriors32167%106.089.3+16.7
7 Miami Heat32167%109.0101.3+7.7
8 Minnesota Timberwolves32167%100.095.3+4.7
9 Milwaukee Bucks32167%88.088.7-0.7
10 New York Knicks32167%103.0105.3-2.3
11 Indiana Pacers53260%108.0104.4+3.6
12 Toronto Raptors42250%105.099.8+5.2
13 Chicago Bulls42250%109.5105.2+4.2
14 Washington Wizards42250%102.098.5+3.5
15 Atlanta Hawks42250%97.094.2+2.8
16 Utah Jazz42250%99.8100.5-0.8
17 Phoenix Suns42250%102.8103.8-1.0
18 Dallas Mavericks42250%96.2100.2-4.0
19 Denver Nuggets42250%103.0108.0-5.0
20 Los Angeles Clippers42250%95.5105.5-10.0
21 Los Angeles Lakers52340%106.8105.0+1.8
22 Cleveland Cavaliers52340%104.0108.6-4.6
23 Detroit Pistons31233%91.393.7-2.3
24 Sacramento Kings31233%98.7104.0-5.3
25 Orlando Magic41325%100.5105.0-4.5
26 New Orleans Pelicans41325%108.2113.5-5.2
27 Charlotte Hornets41325%91.098.0-7.0
28 Brooklyn Nets41325%99.0107.8-8.8
29 Philadelphia 76ers51420%97.2108.6-11.4
30 Oklahoma City Thunder2020%101.5112.0-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
San Antonio Spurs24242032100
Miami Heat30253320108
← all games of the day
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