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Sao Paulo vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 17 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 23:40
Final 84-89 (OT)
8-17 23-26 24-21 21-12 8-13
Position#6
Record0-1
FormWWLLL
Points / game65.0
Allowed / game112.0
vs
Position#7
Record-
FormWWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
EuropeChampions League Americas· Ginasio do Morumbi
Other2023-24
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Nacional
11 Feb 2024
SAO 93
NACI76
17 Dec 2023
SAO 84
NACI89
13 Mar 2022
SAO 101
NACI81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
78-81
78
81
-3
70avg 68
A14/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
81-75
81
75
+6
77avg 68
A17/11
NBB
Pato
#12
W
89-67
89
67
+22
85avg 68
H20/11
NBB
Minas
#3
L
75-83
75
83
-8
65avg 68
H23/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
84-79
84
79
+5
83avg 68
A28/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
81-74
81
74
+7
79avg 68
A30/11
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
78-77
78
77
+1
74avg 68
H04/12
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
70-83
70
83
-13
60avg 68
H07/12
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
70-75
70
75
-5
57avg 68
H09/12
NBB
Quimsa
#3
L
65-112
65
112
-47
46avg 68
A16/12
Champions League Americas
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-19
18-20
19-18
25-24
19-20
18-21
22-16
22-18
20-25
20-19
22-10
27-13
24-30
16-21
14-15
21-17
15-19
20-20
19-18
30-22
17-16
19-15
22-24
23-19
13-22
31-22
17-14
17-19
10-22
22-15
24-18
14-28
20-24
9-22
21-15
20-14
12-24
24-24
10-39
19-25
157.7Avg total
77.1Scored
80.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)65.0112.0177.0-47.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)65.0112.0177.0-47.00%
Last 10 (10)77.180.6157.7-3.550%
Last 5 (5)72.884.2157.0-11.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)79.385.1164.5-5.840%
vs Similar ◀ (11)79.381.4160.6-2.145%
vs Weaker (4)84.573.5158.0+11.0100%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Cordon
#10
W
98-65
98
65
+33
94avg 85
A31/10
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
95-67
95
67
+28
92avg 85
H03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
84-79
84
79
+5
71avg 85
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
98-92
98
92
+6
104avg 85
A13/11
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
77-68
77
68
+9
71avg 85
H18/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
107-99
107
99
+8
100avg 85
A21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
91-78
91
78
+13
87avg 85
H24/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
L
94-101
94
101
-7
86avg 85
A27/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
99-91
99
91
+8
82avg 85
A09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
77-97
77
97
-20
70avg 85
H13/12
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-16
18-15
31-19
28-15
26-10
23-23
24-14
22-20
32-23
14-24
17-21
21-11
21-19
21-28
29-15
27-30
29-25
13-19
18-14
17-10
34-35
24-18
24-22
25-24
24-21
26-19
22-18
19-20
27-23
22-22
27-32
18-24
29-33
23-28
18-13
29-17
30-20
17-26
18-22
12-29
175.7Avg total
92.0Scored
83.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)92.083.7175.7+8.380%
Last 5 (5)93.693.2186.8+0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)77.880.9158.7-3.145%
vs Similar ◀ (12)79.381.8161.1-2.450%
vs Weaker (7)95.183.3178.4+11.986%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -5.5-5.5Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +1.8+1.8
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -5.5-5.5Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +1.8+1.8
Sao PauloNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A14/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A17/11
NBB
Pato
#12
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H20/11
NBB
Minas
#3
L
40-51
40
51
-11
H23/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A28/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A30/11
NBB
Botafogo
#15
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H04/12
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H07/12
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
29-46
29
46
-17
H09/12
NBB
Quimsa
#3
L
36-48
36
48
-12
A16/12
Champions League Americas
78.3Avg total
36.3Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.240.980.1-1.640%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.840.482.1+1.450%-
Last 30 away (16)37.041.378.3-4.331%-
Last 10 (10)36.342.078.3-5.710%-
Last 5 (5)35.441.276.6-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)38.841.580.3-2.740%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)38.642.681.3-4.036%-
vs Weaker (4)42.533.876.2+8.850%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cordon
#10
W
39-31
39
31
+8
A31/10
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
49-33
49
33
+16
H03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
L
46-47
46
47
-1
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
L
42-47
42
47
-5
A13/11
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H18/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
58-53
58
53
+5
A21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H24/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
49-45
49
45
+4
A27/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
L
52-61
52
61
-9
A09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H13/12
Liga Uruguaya
92.1Avg total
47.4Scored
44.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.741.684.3+1.153%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.140.684.7+3.560%-
Last 30 away (15)41.342.683.9-1.347%-
Last 10 (10)47.444.792.1+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)51.249.0100.2+2.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)39.441.781.1-2.436%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)42.741.584.2+1.250%-
vs Weaker (7)48.141.689.7+6.686%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 76.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.818.1
55.2%
52.9%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.98.5
31.6%
33.2%25.5
🏀 Free throws17.914.4
80.4%
73.9%14.4
They take 59.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 91.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.123.1
53.6%
52.9%46.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.210.6
37.6%
33.2%31.8
🏀 Free throws19.513.6
69.7%
73.9%13.6
They take 71.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
LLLWWWLWWL
Nacional
LWLWWWWWWW
#6
League position
#7
-5.0
Net rating
+10.7
109.3
Offensive rating
114.1
114.3
Defensive rating
103.4
51.7%
Effective FG%
54.7%
53.4%
Opp. effective FG%
50.9%
15.1%
Turnover %
15.5%
26.2%
Off. rebound %
30.8%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.27
31.6%
3-point %
37.6%
55.3%
Assist %
63.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence109.3 · 114.1Defence114.3 · 103.4Shooting51.7% · 54.7%3-point %31.6% · 37.6%Ball care15.1% · 15.5%Off. rebounds26.2% · 30.8%Free throws0.30 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Sao Paulo wins
0
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
13/03/22Sao Paulo v Nacional101-81
01/02/22Nacional v Sao Paulo73-89
12/12/21Nacional v Sao Paulo73-98
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/12/23AQuimsa65-112
09/12/23HVasco70-75
07/12/23HFlamengo70-83
04/12/23HBotafogo78-77
30/11/23AUniao Corinthians81-74
28/11/23ACaxias do Sul84-79
23/11/23HMinas75-83
20/11/23HPato89-67
17/11/23APinheiros81-75
14/11/23ACorinthians Paulista78-81
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/12/23HPenarol77-97
09/12/23ADefensor99-91
27/11/23ABigua94-101
24/11/23HUrupan91-78
21/11/23AHebraica y Macabi107-99
18/11/23HAguada77-68
13/11/23AGoes98-92
10/11/23HMalvin84-79
03/11/23HLarre Borges95-67
31/10/23ACordon98-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
Champions League Americas 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
Home--
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %0%-0%
Points / game65.0-65.0
Allowed / game112.0-112.0
Point differential-47.0--47.0
Avg total177.0-177.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
Nacional
Champions League Americas 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Quimsa110100%112.065.0+47.0
2 Franca220100%86.073.0+13.0
3 Real Esteli110100%80.070.0+10.0
4 Boca Juniors21150%71.065.5+5.5
5 Obras Sanitarias21150%90.084.5+5.5
6 Hebraica y Macabi21150%78.077.0+1.0
7 Flamengo21150%77.083.5-6.5
8 Halcones de Xalapa1010%70.080.0-10.0
9 U. De Concepcion2020%67.085.5-18.5
10 Sao Paulo1010%65.0112.0-47.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Sao Paulo8232421884
Nacional172621121389
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