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Perth Lynx W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 08:00
Final 80-65
20-12 18-18 21-15 21-20
Position#2
Record12-4
FormWWWWL
Points / game82.7
Allowed / game74.9
Perth Lynx W 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#7
Record4-12
FormLLLLL
Points / game75.6
Allowed / game84.8
AustraliaNBL WRound 13· Bendat Basketball Centre
Women2025-26
Meetings · Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W
10 Jan 2026
PERT80
ADEL65
02 Jan 2026
PERT93
ADEL75
05 Jan 2025
PERT94
ADEL76
07 Jan 2024
PERT84
ADEL68
11 Nov 2023
PERT92
ADEL85
30 Dec 2022
PERT82
ADEL72
09 Mar 2022
PERT84
ADEL73
07 Mar 2022
PERT104
ADEL79
15 Nov 2020
PERT69
ADEL74
26 Oct 2019
PERT86
ADEL90
19 Jan 2019
PERT81
ADEL82
13 Oct 2018
PERT66
ADEL78
15 Dec 2017
PERT99
ADEL82
18 Dec 2016
PERT102
ADEL52
30 Oct 2016
PERT95
ADEL63
24 Jan 2016
PERT76
ADEL67
20 Nov 2015
PERT93
ADEL85
18 Oct 2014
PERT92
ADEL68
08 Feb 2014
PERT57
ADEL70
22 Dec 2012
PERT64
ADEL77
27 Oct 2012
PERT65
ADEL75
13 Jan 2012
PERT51
ADEL84
17 Dec 2011
PERT57
ADEL78
20 Nov 2010
PERT68
ADEL56
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Perth Lynx W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Perth Lynx WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
W
79-64
79
64
+15
76avg 76
H16/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
58-87
58
87
-29
46avg 76
A23/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
91-67
91
67
+24
83avg 76
A29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
98-81
98
81
+17
93avg 76
H05/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
W
97-81
97
81
+16
97avg 76
A14/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
109-82
109
82
+27
108avg 76
A21/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
75-49
75
49
+26
69avg 76
H23/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
106-78
106
78
+28
108avg 76
H28/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
93-75
93
75
+18
93avg 76
H02/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
74-77
74
77
-3
65avg 76
A04/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-19
17-16
28-15
13-14
20-16
13-21
10-23
15-27
23-17
20-19
27-21
21-10
33-21
30-14
23-25
12-21
25-26
24-23
25-19
23-13
31-29
30-17
25-20
23-16
21-14
13-15
23-12
18-8
27-15
33-23
23-18
23-22
27-19
24-21
22-12
20-23
14-22
24-16
18-22
18-17
162.1Avg total
88.0Scored
74.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)82.774.9157.6+7.875%
Season at home (8)84.171.1155.2+13.088%
Season away (8)81.278.8160.0+2.562%
Last 10 (10)88.074.1162.1+13.980%
Last 5 (5)91.472.2163.6+19.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)78.581.5160.0-3.050%
vs Similar (5)83.488.8172.2-5.440%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)85.175.3160.3+9.883%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
99-93 OT
99
93
+6
33avg 63
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
64-90
64
90
-26
45avg 63
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
65-71
65
71
-6
55avg 63
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
71-76
71
76
-5
58avg 63
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
94-75
94
75
+19
92avg 63
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
67-75
67
75
-8
59avg 63
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
82-109
82
109
-27
64avg 63
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
72-85
72
85
-13
59avg 63
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
75-93
75
93
-18
67avg 63
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-83
69
83
-14
68avg 63
H04/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-24
25-22
13-21
19-17
19-26
17-21
9-22
19-21
19-19
27-24
11-19
8-9
18-20
25-24
17-16
11-16
13-20
30-16
27-17
24-22
16-31
18-12
13-15
20-17
29-31
17-30
20-25
16-23
15-18
23-23
15-17
19-27
19-27
21-24
12-22
23-20
17-24
10-20
15-23
27-16
160.8Avg total
75.8Scored
85.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)75.684.8160.4-9.125%
Season at home (8)77.683.5161.1-5.938%
Season away (8)73.686.0159.6-12.412%
Last 10 (10)75.885.0160.8-9.220%
Last 5 (5)73.089.0162.0-16.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)70.785.3156.0-14.57%
vs Similar (13)79.180.7159.8-1.654%
vs Weaker (2)73.069.5142.5+3.550%
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.4+4.4Q1: -4.8-4.8Q2Q2: +4.3+4.3Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: -4.5-4.5Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -0.2-0.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.4+4.4Q1: -4.8-4.8Q2Q2: +4.3+4.3Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: -4.5-4.5Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -0.2-0.2
Perth Lynx WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Perth Lynx WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H16/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A23/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
63-35
63
35
+28
H05/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
D
49-49
49
49
+0
A14/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
61-46
61
46
+15
A21/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H23/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
60-38
60
38
+22
H28/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
51-40
51
40
+11
H02/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A04/01
NBL W
85.3Avg total
47.0Scored
38.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.040.184.0+3.957%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.438.183.4+7.364%-
Last 30 away (16)42.841.884.6+0.950%-
Last 10 (10)47.038.385.3+8.770%-
Last 5 (5)48.838.287.0+10.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)43.541.585.0+2.050%-
vs Similar (5)41.046.487.4-5.40%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)44.738.683.2+6.170%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
46-61
46
61
-15
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
27-44
27
44
-17
H04/01
NBL W
86.1Avg total
40.5Scored
45.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.443.481.8-4.927%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.944.083.9-4.140%-
Last 30 away (15)37.042.779.7-5.713%-
Last 10 (10)40.545.686.1-5.130%-
Last 5 (5)37.048.085.0-11.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)37.045.582.5-8.513%-
vs Similar (13)40.841.682.4-0.846%-
vs Weaker (2)34.039.073.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Perth Lynx Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth Lynx W: 87.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.320.4
51.9%
47.8%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.411.1
35.4%
32.8%33.3
🏀 Free throws17.812.9
72.5%
73.3%12.9
They take 70.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 69.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.917.7
46.7%
47.8%35.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.47.7
32.9%
32.8%23.1
🏀 Free throws13.210.5
79.5%
73.3%10.5
They take 61.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Perth Lynx W
LWWWWWWWLW
Adelaide Lightning W
LLLLLWLLLW
#2
League position
#7
+17.8
Net rating
-15.4
113.3
Offensive rating
93.9
95.5
Defensive rating
109.3
52.4%
Effective FG%
47.7%
43.5%
Opp. effective FG%
52.2%
17.0%
Turnover %
19.8%
36.2%
Off. rebound %
23.4%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.22
35.4%
3-point %
32.9%
62.2%
Assist %
64.6%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence113.3 · 93.9Defence95.5 · 109.3Shooting52.4% · 47.7%3-point %35.4% · 32.9%Ball care17.0% · 19.8%Off. rebounds36.2% · 23.4%Free throws0.25 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)80% · 20%
■ Perth Lynx W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Perth Lynx W wins
1
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
02/01/26Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W93-75
21/12/25Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W82-109
19/10/25Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W72-75
01/02/25Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W87-69
05/01/25Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W94-76
09/11/24Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W78-92
07/01/24Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W84-68
10/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W95-98 OT
11/11/23Perth Lynx W v Adelaide Lightning W92-85
02/03/23Adelaide Lightning W v Perth Lynx W93-97
Perth Lynx Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/01/26ACanberra Capitals W74-77
02/01/26HAdelaide Lightning W93-75
28/12/25HGeelong Venom W106-78
23/12/25HCanberra Capitals W75-49
21/12/25AAdelaide Lightning W109-82
14/12/25ATownsville W97-81
05/12/25HSouthside W98-81
29/11/25ACanberra Capitals W91-67
23/11/25ABendigo W58-87
16/11/25HBendigo W79-64
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/01/26HTownsville W69-83
02/01/26APerth Lynx W75-93
28/12/25ASouthside W72-85
21/12/25HPerth Lynx W82-109
19/12/25ABendigo W67-75
14/12/25ASydney W94-75
09/12/25ACanberra Capitals W71-76
30/11/25ABendigo W65-71
25/11/25HTownsville W64-90
21/11/25HGeelong Venom W99-93 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Perth Lynx W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL75%
HomeWWWWW88%
AwayLWWWL62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %75%88%62%
Points / game82.784.181.2
Allowed / game74.971.178.8
Point differential+7.8+13.0+2.5
Avg total157.6155.2160.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%62%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL25%
HomeLWLLL38%
AwayLWLLL12%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %25%38%12%
Points / game75.677.673.6
Allowed / game84.883.586.0
Point differential-9.1-5.9-12.4
Avg total160.4161.1159.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%12%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %6%12%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W1613381%75.968.0+7.9
2 Townsville W1713476%86.171.6+14.4
3 Perth Lynx W1612475%82.774.9+7.8
4 Southside W157847%78.977.3+1.6
5 Canberra Capitals W167944%72.478.6-6.1
6 Sydney W1861233%76.984.6-7.7
7 Adelaide Lightning W1641225%75.684.8-9.1
8 Geelong Venom W1841422%74.482.0-7.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Perth Lynx W2018212180
Adelaide Lightning W1218152065
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