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Adelaide Lightning W vs Sydney W Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 13 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 08:00
Final 76-65
23-23 23-13 12-13 18-16
Position#7
Record4-13
FormLLLLL
Points / game75.0
Allowed / game84.5
Adelaide Lightning W 🏆
Australia
vs
Sydney W
Australia
Position#8
Record6-12
FormLWLWW
Points / game76.9
Allowed / game84.6
AustraliaNBL WRound 13· Adelaide Arena
Women2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W
13 Jan 2026
ADEL76
SYDN65
09 Nov 2025
ADEL88
SYDN71
20 Nov 2024
ADEL78
SYDN54
05 Jan 2024
ADEL74
SYDN67
06 Dec 2023
ADEL64
SYDN66
12 Jan 2023
ADEL77
SYDN81
19 Nov 2022
ADEL87
SYDN67
05 Mar 2022
ADEL v SYDN
upcoming
28 Nov 2020
ADEL75
SYDN53
11 Oct 2019
ADEL89
SYDN79
04 Jan 2019
ADEL110
SYDN61
21 Dec 2018
ADEL95
SYDN52
06 Oct 2017
ADEL91
SYDN80
12 Jan 2017
ADEL74
SYDN77
29 Dec 2016
ADEL72
SYDN89
17 Oct 2015
ADEL71
SYDN88
06 Feb 2015
ADEL72
SYDN60
15 Nov 2014
ADEL59
SYDN78
26 Jan 2014
ADEL68
SYDN71
08 Feb 2013
ADEL98
SYDN73
13 Oct 2012
ADEL86
SYDN60
14 Oct 2011
ADEL65
SYDN70
29 Jan 2011
ADEL55
SYDN80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sydney W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
L
64-90
64
90
-26
45avg 62
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
65-71
65
71
-6
55avg 62
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
71-76
71
76
-5
58avg 62
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
94-75
94
75
+19
92avg 62
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
67-75
67
75
-8
59avg 62
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
82-109
82
109
-27
64avg 62
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
72-85
72
85
-13
59avg 62
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
75-93
75
93
-18
67avg 62
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-83
69
83
-14
68avg 62
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
65-80
65
80
-15
53avg 62
A10/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-26
17-21
9-22
19-21
19-19
27-24
11-19
8-9
18-20
25-24
17-16
11-16
13-20
30-16
27-17
24-22
16-31
18-12
13-15
20-17
29-31
17-30
20-25
16-23
15-18
23-23
15-17
19-27
19-27
21-24
12-22
23-20
17-24
10-20
15-23
27-16
12-20
18-18
15-21
20-21
156.1Avg total
72.4Scored
83.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)75.084.5159.5-9.524%
Season at home (8)77.683.5161.1-5.938%
Season away (9)72.785.3158.0-12.711%
Last 10 (10)72.483.7156.1-11.310%
Last 5 (5)72.690.0162.6-17.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)70.484.9155.3-14.66%
vs Similar ◀ (13)79.180.7159.8-1.654%
vs Weaker (1)87.070.0157.0+17.0100%
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sydney WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
97-94 OT
97
94
+3
94avg 67
H26/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
64-80
64
80
-16
58avg 67
H28/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
60-93
60
93
-33
49avg 67
A06/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
75-94
75
94
-19
65avg 67
H14/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
77-99
77
99
-22
58avg 67
H20/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
74-79
74
79
-5
63avg 67
A23/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
91-61
91
61
+30
96avg 67
A27/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
94-113
94
113
-19
80avg 67
H30/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
89-78
89
78
+11
86avg 67
H05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
84-72
84
72
+12
75avg 67
H10/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-19
24-24
22-19
20-19
13-26
19-16
24-13
8-25
15-31
13-26
17-23
15-13
20-13
16-30
17-27
22-24
25-24
22-31
13-24
17-20
21-10
16-24
17-22
20-23
26-9
24-16
17-21
24-15
19-26
24-34
25-26
26-27
25-20
28-19
18-26
18-13
22-14
31-20
16-21
15-17
166.8Avg total
80.5Scored
86.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)76.984.6161.5-7.733%
Season at home (9)81.086.1167.1-5.144%
Season away (9)72.883.1155.9-10.322%
Last 10 (10)80.586.3166.8-5.840%
Last 5 (5)86.480.6167.0+5.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)74.587.6162.1-13.116%
vs Similar ◀ (10)77.977.7155.6+0.260%
vs Weaker (1)70.090.0160.0-20.00%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -5.9-5.9Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -2.3-2.3Q3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -1.1-1.1
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -5.9-5.9Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -2.3-2.3Q3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -1.1-1.1
Adelaide Lightning WSydney W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A14/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A19/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
46-61
46
61
-15
H21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A28/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A02/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
27-44
27
44
-17
H04/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A10/01
NBL W
83.1Avg total
38.3Scored
44.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.643.682.1-5.027%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.944.083.9-4.140%-
Last 30 away (15)37.343.180.4-5.913%-
Last 10 (10)38.344.883.1-6.520%-
Last 5 (5)36.247.083.2-10.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)36.645.081.6-8.412%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)40.841.682.4-0.846%-
vs Weaker (1)42.046.088.0-4.00%-
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sydney WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H26/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H28/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
28-57
28
57
-29
A06/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H14/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
47-55
47
55
-8
H20/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A23/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
50-25
50
25
+25
A27/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
43-60
43
60
-17
H30/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H05/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H10/01
NBL W
85.0Avg total
41.8Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.443.883.2-4.430%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.244.185.3-2.927%-
Last 30 away (15)37.743.581.2-5.933%-
Last 10 (10)41.843.285.0-1.440%-
Last 5 (5)47.238.485.6+8.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)39.146.986.0-7.821%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)39.437.777.1+1.750%-
vs Weaker (1)46.046.092.0+0.00%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 71.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.217.8
45.4%
47.8%35.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.18.4
32.2%
32.8%25.2
🏀 Free throws13.310.6
79.7%
73.3%10.6
They take 65.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sydney Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney W: 80.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.319.7
46.6%
47.8%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.39.0
35.6%
32.8%27.0
🏀 Free throws19.114.1
73.8%
73.3%14.1
They take 67.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LLLLLLWLLL
Sydney W
WWLWLLLLLW
#7
League position
#8
-14.8
Net rating
-6.3
90.5
Offensive rating
103.8
105.4
Defensive rating
110.1
46.6%
Effective FG%
49.1%
50.7%
Opp. effective FG%
52.3%
19.9%
Turnover %
20.0%
23.4%
Off. rebound %
37.7%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.28
32.2%
3-point %
35.6%
64.5%
Assist %
59.6%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence90.5 · 103.8Defence105.4 · 110.1Shooting46.6% · 49.1%3-point %32.2% · 35.6%Ball care19.9% · 20.0%Off. rebounds23.4% · 37.7%Free throws0.20 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)10% · 40%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Sydney W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Adelaide Lightning W wins
5
Sydney W wins
DateGameScore
14/12/25Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W75-94
09/11/25Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W88-71
19/01/25Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W84-60
22/12/24Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W73-86
20/11/24Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W78-54
17/01/24Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W88-65
05/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W74-67
06/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W64-66
24/02/23Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W101-91
12/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W77-81
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/26APerth Lynx W65-80
04/01/26HTownsville W69-83
02/01/26APerth Lynx W75-93
28/12/25ASouthside W72-85
21/12/25HPerth Lynx W82-109
19/12/25ABendigo W67-75
14/12/25ASydney W94-75
09/12/25ACanberra Capitals W71-76
30/11/25ABendigo W65-71
25/11/25HTownsville W64-90
Sydney Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/26HCanberra Capitals W84-72
05/01/26HBendigo W89-78
30/12/25HSouthside W94-113
27/12/25ACanberra Capitals W91-61
23/12/25ATownsville W74-79
20/12/25HTownsville W77-99
14/12/25HAdelaide Lightning W75-94
06/12/25ATownsville W60-93
28/11/25HBendigo W64-80
26/11/25HGeelong Venom W97-94 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL24%
HomeLWLLL38%
AwayWLLLL11%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %24%38%11%
Points / game75.077.672.7
Allowed / game84.583.585.3
Point differential-9.5-5.9-12.7
Avg total159.5161.1158.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%12%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %6%12%0%
Sydney W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW33%
HomeLLLWW44%
AwayLLLLW22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %33%44%22%
Points / game76.981.072.8
Allowed / game84.686.183.1
Point differential-7.7-5.1-10.3
Avg total161.5167.1155.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%22%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %6%11%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W1613381%75.968.0+7.9
2 Townsville W1814478%86.372.3+13.9
3 Perth Lynx W1713476%82.574.4+8.2
4 Southside W167944%79.278.1+1.1
5 Canberra Capitals W167944%72.478.6-6.1
6 Sydney W1861233%76.984.6-7.7
7 Adelaide Lightning W1741324%75.084.5-9.5
8 Geelong Venom W1841422%74.482.0-7.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W2323121876
Sydney W2313131665
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