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Texas State vs Ball State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 68-60
37-31 31-29
Position#214
Record10-14
FormLLWWW
Points / game68.3
Allowed / game70.1
vs
Position#226
Record12-11
FormWWLWL
Points / game75.4
Allowed / game71.0
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ball State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#289
L
75-79
75
79
-4
H06/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#186
L
82-85
82
85
-3
A12/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#302
W
67-54
67
54
+13
A13/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#147
L
68-86
68
86
-18
H18/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#186
L
72-79
72
79
-7
H20/01
NCAA
Troy
#98
L
65-78
65
78
-13
A25/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#147
L
46-66
46
66
-20
A28/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#212
W
74-66
74
66
+8
H02/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#211
W
60-55
60
55
+5
H03/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#14
W
63-56
63
56
+7
H08/02
NCAA
1H
2H
40-37
35-42
39-38
43-47
33-29
34-25
29-44
39-42
36-43
36-36
34-39
31-39
24-30
22-36
28-24
46-42
31-24
29-31
29-26
34-30
137.6Avg total
67.2Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)68.370.1138.4-1.842%
Season at home (12)73.267.8141.0+5.550%
Season away (12)63.472.4135.8-9.033%
Last 10 (10)67.270.4137.6-3.240%
Last 5 (5)61.664.2125.8-2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)59.673.4133.0-13.714%
vs Similar ◀ (12)72.466.9139.3+5.567%
vs Weaker (4)86.862.8149.5+24.075%
This opponent (Ball State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ball StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Michigan
#168
L
65-71
65
71
-6
H06/01
NCAA
Akron
#59
L
76-80
76
80
-4
H10/01
NCAA
Toledo
#107
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A14/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#278
W
76-62
76
62
+14
A17/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#228
L
80-87 OT
80
87
-7
H20/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#362
W
87-59
87
59
+28
A24/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#307
W
81-71
81
71
+10
H27/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#127
L
72-81
72
81
-9
H31/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#300
W
77-67
77
67
+10
A03/02
NCAA
Ohio
#120
L
79-84 OT
79
84
-5
H07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
29-31
36-40
35-33
41-47
33-40
39-37
32-29
44-33
35-37
37-35
45-31
42-28
39-26
42-45
31-33
41-48
39-22
38-45
27-36
45-36
150.4Avg total
76.5Scored
73.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)75.471.0146.4+4.452%
Season at home (13)79.768.8148.5+10.962%
Season away (10)69.873.9143.7-4.140%
Last 10 (10)76.573.9150.4+2.640%
Last 5 (5)79.272.4151.6+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)78.881.8160.7-3.017%
vs Similar ◀ (8)71.682.2153.9-10.612%
vs Weaker (16)76.765.5142.2+11.275%
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -1.1-1.11st half: +2.7+2.72nd half2nd half: -2.1-2.12nd half: +1.1+1.1
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -1.1-1.11st half: +2.7+2.72nd half2nd half: -2.1-2.12nd half: +1.1+1.1
Texas StateBall State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#289
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H06/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#186
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A12/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#302
W
33-29
33
29
+4
A13/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#147
L
29-44
29
44
-15
H18/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#186
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H20/01
NCAA
Troy
#98
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A25/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#147
L
24-30
24
30
-6
A28/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#212
W
28-24
28
24
+4
H02/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#211
W
31-24
31
24
+7
H03/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#14
W
29-26
29
26
+3
H08/02
NCAA
65.7Avg total
32.3Scored
33.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.232.463.5-1.243%-
Last 30 at home (15)32.531.664.1+0.953%-
Last 30 away (15)29.833.162.9-3.333%-
Last 10 (10)32.333.465.7-1.160%-
Last 5 (5)29.228.657.8+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)27.735.763.4-8.07%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)32.829.662.4+3.375%-
vs Weaker (4)38.229.067.2+9.275%-
This opponent (Ball State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ball StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Michigan
#168
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H06/01
NCAA
Akron
#59
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H10/01
NCAA
Toledo
#107
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A14/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#278
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A17/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#228
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H20/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#362
W
45-31
45
31
+14
A24/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#307
W
39-26
39
26
+13
H27/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#127
L
31-33
31
33
-2
H31/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#300
W
39-22
39
22
+17
A03/02
NCAA
Ohio
#120
L
27-36
27
36
-9
H07/02
NCAA
66.3Avg total
34.5Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.934.068.9+0.947%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.433.169.5+3.353%-
Last 30 away (13)32.935.268.2-2.338%-
Last 10 (10)34.531.866.3+2.750%-
Last 5 (5)36.229.665.8+6.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)33.236.369.5-3.233%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)32.841.874.5-9.012%-
vs Weaker (16)36.629.365.9+7.369%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Texas State wins
0
Ball State wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/02/24HAppalachian State63-56
03/02/24HSouthern Miss60-55
02/02/24HSouth Alabama74-66
28/01/24ALouisiana Lafayette46-66
25/01/24ATroy65-78
20/01/24HArkansas State72-79
18/01/24HLouisiana Lafayette68-86
13/01/24ALouisiana Monroe67-54
12/01/24AArkansas State82-85
06/01/24HMarshall75-79
Ball Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/24HOhio79-84 OT
03/02/24AWestern Michigan77-67
31/01/24HBowling Green72-81
27/01/24HNorthern Illinois81-71
24/01/24ABuffalo87-59
20/01/24HMiami (Ohio)80-87 OT
17/01/24AEastern Michigan76-62
14/01/24AToledo72-77
10/01/24HAkron76-80
06/01/24HCentral Michigan65-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW42%
HomeLLWWW50%
AwayLLWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %42%50%33%
Points / game68.373.263.4
Allowed / game70.167.872.4
Point differential-1.8+5.5-9.0
Avg total138.4141.0135.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%25%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)50% (2)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ball State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL52%
HomeLLWLL62%
AwayLLWWW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231310
Win %52%62%40%
Points / game75.479.769.8
Allowed / game71.068.873.9
Point differential+4.4+10.9-4.1
Avg total146.4148.5143.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%46%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %9%15%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 James Madison2421388%85.269.2+16.0
2 Appalachian State2520580%78.666.9+11.7
3 Troy2517868%80.069.4+10.6
4 Louisiana Lafayette2415962%77.371.2+6.1
5 Southern Miss25141156%70.570.1+0.4
6 Marshall25121348%75.776.4-0.8
7 South Alabama25121348%73.576.6-3.2
8 Georgia State24111346%78.174.3+3.8
9 Arkansas State25111444%79.678.9+0.7
10 Texas State24101442%68.370.1-1.8
11 Louisiana Monroe2391439%71.074.7-3.7
12 Coastal Carolina2361726%74.779.9-5.2
13 Old Dominion2561924%71.276.6-5.4
14 Georgia Southern2552020%70.979.4-8.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron2318578%75.964.3+11.6
2 Bowling Green2316770%77.272.0+5.2
3 UMass2214864%80.372.0+8.2
4 Toledo2415962%80.777.4+3.2
5 Central Michigan24141058%66.871.0-4.2
6 Ohio24131154%78.872.4+6.4
7 Ball State23121152%75.471.0+4.4
8 Kent State24121250%76.573.0+3.5
9 Miami (Ohio)23111248%72.471.0+1.4
10 Eastern Michigan2491538%67.575.6-8.0
11 Northern Illinois2381535%75.678.6-3.0
12 Western Michigan2481633%71.575.5-4.0
13 Buffalo2332013%67.480.4-13.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Texas State373168
Ball State312960
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