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Valencia vs Palencia Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 03 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 111-93
25-25 28-31 27-20 31-17
Position#4
Record13-9
FormLLWLL
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game79.4
vs
Position#18
Record4-18
FormWLLLW
Points / game77.7
Allowed / game86.3
SpainACBRound 23· Font de Sant Lluis
Domestic2023-24
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valencia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Palencia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValenciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormValencia
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#9
W
77-62
77
62
+15
71avg 71
A26/01
Euroleague
Unicaja
#2
L
63-83
63
83
-20
50avg 71
H28/01
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#16
L
64-82
64
82
-18
52avg 71
A30/01
Euroleague
Alba Berlin
#18
W
81-66
81
66
+15
80avg 71
A01/02
Euroleague
Barcelona
#3
W
79-76
79
76
+3
68avg 71
A04/02
ACB
Olympiacos
#4
L
65-78
65
78
-13
62avg 71
H08/02
Euroleague
Bilbao
#13
L
78-93
78
93
-15
75avg 71
A11/02
ACB
Gran Canaria
#6
W
89-81 OT
89
81
+8
no box
A15/02
Spanish Cup
Real Madrid
#1
L
76-95
76
95
-19
63avg 71
A17/02
Spanish Cup
Virtus Bologna
#8
L
74-87
74
87
-13
69avg 71
A29/02
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-13
29-16
13-19
19-14
7-19
18-22
17-16
21-26
12-11
18-28
19-22
15-21
20-15
22-15
23-15
16-21
19-19
19-21
22-18
19-18
19-21
20-19
9-20
17-18
18-28
15-14
25-28
20-23
17-18
15-17
16-19
29-23
17-23
22-25
16-32
21-15
20-18
12-26
25-21
17-22
154.9Avg total
74.6Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)80.079.4159.4+0.659%
Season at home (11)79.280.1159.3-0.955%
Season away (11)80.878.6159.5+2.264%
Last 10 (10)74.680.3154.9-5.740%
Last 5 (5)76.486.8163.2-10.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)72.681.9154.4-9.314%
vs Similar (16)79.878.6158.4+1.256%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)81.080.0161.0+1.050%
This opponent (Palencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PalenciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPalencia
Date
Competition
Granada
#17
L
85-109
85
109
-24
76avg 71
A09/12
ACB
Baskonia
#8
L
82-94
82
94
-12
71avg 71
A12/12
ACB
Basket Zaragoza
#12
L
80-88
80
88
-8
67avg 71
H17/12
ACB
Bilbao
#13
W
78-72
78
72
+6
129avg 71
H30/12
ACB
Unicaja
#2
L
72-86
72
86
-14
66avg 71
H06/01
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
W
86-84
86
84
+2
83avg 71
A13/01
ACB
Manresa
#9
L
88-95
88
95
-7
83avg 71
H20/01
ACB
Barcelona
#3
L
94-102
94
102
-8
89avg 71
A28/01
ACB
Joventut Badalona
#10
L
77-89
77
89
-12
50avg 71
A03/02
ACB
Gran Canaria
#7
W
82-58
82
58
+24
83avg 71
H10/02
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-26
17-29
27-35
21-19
20-14
23-23
25-25
14-32
18-20
22-26
21-20
19-22
24-12
18-19
13-21
23-20
21-21
10-20
18-30
23-15
17-21
17-23
24-19
28-21
17-17
24-22
25-22
22-34
16-29
27-23
25-18
26-32
24-19
16-19
17-25
20-26
20-20
25-12
21-11
16-15
170.1Avg total
82.4Scored
87.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)77.786.3164.0-8.518%
Season at home (11)76.879.5156.3-2.627%
Season away (11)78.693.1171.7-14.59%
Last 10 (10)82.487.7170.1-5.330%
Last 5 (5)85.485.6171.0-0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)77.585.9163.4-8.518%
vs Similar (6)81.386.7168.0-5.333%
vs Weaker (7)82.068.3150.3+13.786%
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -2.5-2.5Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: -2.4-2.4
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -2.5-2.5Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: -2.4-2.4
ValenciaPalencia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#9
W
45-29
45
29
+16
A26/01
Euroleague
Unicaja
#2
L
25-41
25
41
-16
H28/01
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#16
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A30/01
Euroleague
Alba Berlin
#18
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A01/02
Euroleague
Barcelona
#3
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A04/02
ACB
Olympiacos
#4
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H08/02
Euroleague
Bilbao
#13
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A11/02
ACB
Gran Canaria
#6
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A15/02
Spanish Cup
Real Madrid
#1
L
39-48
39
48
-9
A17/02
Spanish Cup
Virtus Bologna
#8
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A29/02
Euroleague
74.3Avg total
35.5Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.239.177.3-0.937%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.741.881.5-2.127%-
Last 30 away (15)36.736.373.1+0.447%-
Last 10 (10)35.538.874.3-3.320%-
Last 5 (5)35.041.876.8-6.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)37.039.776.7-2.729%-
vs Similar (16)39.238.878.1+0.450%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)37.839.777.5-1.817%-
This opponent (Palencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PalenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Granada
#17
L
37-55
37
55
-18
A09/12
ACB
Baskonia
#8
W
43-37
43
37
+6
A12/12
ACB
Basket Zaragoza
#12
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H17/12
ACB
Bilbao
#13
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H30/12
ACB
Unicaja
#2
L
31-41
31
41
-10
H06/01
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A13/01
ACB
Manresa
#9
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H20/01
ACB
Barcelona
#3
L
43-52
43
52
-9
A28/01
ACB
Joventut Badalona
#10
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A03/02
ACB
Gran Canaria
#7
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H10/02
ACB
81.1Avg total
39.6Scored
41.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.639.878.4-1.243%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.436.376.6+4.159%-
Last 30 away (13)36.344.580.8-8.223%-
Last 10 (10)39.641.581.1-1.950%-
Last 5 (5)40.641.081.6-0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)38.142.480.4-4.329%-
vs Similar (6)38.342.080.3-3.750%-
vs Weaker (7)40.131.972.0+8.371%-
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Valenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valencia: 73.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.717.0
47.6%
53.0%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.47.7
31.6%
34.9%23.1
🏀 Free throws20.815.9
76.4%
75.6%15.9
They take 60.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Palenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Palencia: 81.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.519.3
51.5%
53.0%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.78.5
33.1%
34.9%25.5
🏀 Free throws22.517.5
77.8%
75.6%17.5
They take 63.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Valencia
LLWLLWWLLW
Palencia
WLLLWLWLLL
#4
League position
#18
-8.6
Net rating
-6.8
100.1
Offensive rating
108.4
108.8
Defensive rating
115.2
47.5%
Effective FG%
50.7%
52.1%
Opp. effective FG%
54.3%
18.5%
Turnover %
17.3%
27.9%
Off. rebound %
31.3%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.36
31.6%
3-point %
33.1%
64.0%
Assist %
62.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence100.1 · 108.4Defence108.8 · 115.2Shooting47.5% · 50.7%3-point %31.6% · 33.1%Ball care18.5% · 17.3%Off. rebounds27.9% · 31.3%Free throws0.35 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)40% · 30%
■ Valencia   ■ Palencia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Valencia wins
0
Palencia wins
DateGameScore
25/11/23Palencia v Valencia77-101
Valencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/02/24AVirtus Bologna74-87
17/02/24AReal Madrid76-95
15/02/24AGran Canaria89-81 OT
11/02/24ABilbao78-93
08/02/24HOlympiacos65-78
04/02/24ABarcelona79-76
01/02/24AAlba Berlin81-66
30/01/24ACrvena zvezda64-82
28/01/24HUnicaja63-83
26/01/24ABaskonia77-62
Palencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/02/24HGran Canaria82-58
03/02/24AJoventut Badalona77-89
28/01/24ABarcelona94-102
20/01/24HManresa88-95
13/01/24ABasquet Girona86-84
06/01/24HUnicaja72-86
30/12/23HBilbao78-72
17/12/23HBasket Zaragoza80-88
12/12/23ABaskonia82-94
09/12/23AGranada85-109

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valencia
ACB 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL59%
HomeWLLWL55%
AwayWLWWL64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %59%55%64%
Points / game80.079.280.8
Allowed / game79.480.178.6
Point differential+0.6-0.9+2.2
Avg total159.4159.3159.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%0%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)75% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %5%0%9%
Palencia
ACB 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW18%
HomeLWLLW27%
AwayLLWLL9%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %18%27%9%
Points / game77.776.878.6
Allowed / game86.379.593.1
Point differential-8.5-2.6-14.5
Avg total164.0156.3171.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%18%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %5%9%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid2320387%89.277.9+11.3
2 Unicaja2319483%88.077.2+10.9
3 Barcelona2215768%86.479.7+6.6
4 Gran Canaria2214864%83.381.2+2.0
5 Murcia2314961%83.379.8+3.5
6 Tenerife2314961%84.681.5+3.1
7 Joventut Badalona2314961%81.884.9-3.1
8 Valencia2213959%80.079.4+0.6
9 Baskonia22121055%85.686.0-0.3
10 Manresa23121152%84.484.6-0.2
11 Basket Zaragoza2291341%81.682.9-1.3
12 Bilbao2391439%78.781.9-3.2
13 Basquet Girona2391439%80.885.7-4.9
14 MoraBanc Andorra2381535%83.184.7-1.6
15 Obradoiro CAB2361726%80.484.3-3.9
16 Granada2361726%81.486.6-5.2
17 Breogan2361726%74.079.7-5.8
18 Palencia2241818%77.786.3-8.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Valencia25282731111
Palencia2531201793
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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