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Palencia vs Bilbao Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 30 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 78-72
24-12 18-19 13-21 23-20
Position#18
Record1-14
FormLLLLL
Points / game75.5
Allowed / game87.5
Palencia 🏆
Spain
vs
Bilbao
Spain
Position#13
Record6-9
FormWLWLW
Points / game77.8
Allowed / game80.8
SpainACBRound 16· Pabellon Municipal de Deportes
Domestic2023-24
Meetings · Palencia v Bilbao
30 Dec 2023
PAL78
BIL72
19 May 2019
PAL61
BIL57
17 May 2019
PAL81
BIL87
07 Dec 2018
PAL78
BIL71
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Palencia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Bilbao winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PalenciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPalencia
Date
Competition
Breogan
#16
W
74-59
74
59
+15
80avg 65
H21/10
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
L
68-91
68
91
-23
46avg 65
A29/10
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
L
76-80
76
80
-4
65avg 65
H04/11
ACB
Murcia
#6
L
66-76
66
76
-10
58avg 65
H11/11
ACB
Tenerife
#5
L
71-92
71
92
-21
66avg 65
A18/11
ACB
Valencia
#4
L
77-101
77
101
-24
67avg 65
H25/11
ACB
Gran Canaria
#7
L
73-100
73
100
-27
63avg 65
A03/12
ACB
Granada
#17
L
85-109
85
109
-24
76avg 65
A09/12
ACB
Baskonia
#8
L
82-94
82
94
-12
71avg 65
A12/12
ACB
Basket Zaragoza
#12
L
80-88
80
88
-8
67avg 65
H17/12
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-17
24-8
24-20
14-14
11-30
14-22
18-15
25-24
23-23
17-15
21-24
15-18
20-21
18-19
18-19
10-17
16-30
19-19
18-19
18-24
20-25
27-31
17-26
13-19
13-22
23-24
19-32
18-22
20-26
17-29
27-35
21-19
20-14
23-23
25-25
14-32
18-20
22-26
21-20
19-22
164.2Avg total
75.2Scored
89.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)75.587.5163.0-11.97%
Season at home (7)75.080.4155.4-5.414%
Season away (8)76.093.6169.6-17.60%
Last 10 (10)75.289.0164.2-13.810%
Last 5 (5)79.498.4177.8-19.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)75.287.3162.6-12.18%
vs Similar (5)78.087.2165.2-9.220%
vs Weaker (13)84.870.9155.7+13.885%
This opponent (Bilbao) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BilbaoSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBilbao
Date
Competition
CSU Sibiu
#51
W
73-68
73
68
+5
67avg 68
A15/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Joventut Badalona
#10
L
78-81
78
81
-3
76avg 68
A19/11
ACB
Caledonia Gladiators
#26
W
78-59
78
59
+19
74avg 68
A22/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Unicaja
#2
L
43-67
43
67
-24
29avg 68
H25/11
ACB
Valencia
#4
W
85-79
85
79
+6
83avg 68
A03/12
ACB
Gottingen
#8
W
75-73
75
73
+2
68avg 68
H06/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Breogan
#16
L
68-76
68
76
-8
60avg 68
H09/12
ACB
FC Porto
#12
W
75-72
75
72
+3
72avg 68
A12/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Gran Canaria
#7
L
75-83
75
83
-8
64avg 68
A16/12
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
W
80-74
80
74
+6
73avg 68
H22/12
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-18
24-21
23-19
12-10
19-19
22-19
19-15
18-28
16-8
18-18
20-18
24-15
13-19
13-27
11-5
6-16
19-17
24-22
17-20
25-20
20-19
24-26
16-10
15-18
22-13
12-18
19-18
15-27
17-23
16-20
27-12
15-17
25-19
18-23
23-17
9-24
22-17
12-23
24-16
22-18
146.2Avg total
73.0Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)77.880.8158.6-3.040%
Season at home (8)79.279.0158.2+0.250%
Season away (7)76.182.9159.0-6.729%
Last 10 (10)73.073.2146.2-0.260%
Last 5 (5)74.675.6150.2-1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)74.483.9158.3-9.422%
vs Similar (15)78.178.9156.9-0.853%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)82.765.7148.3+17.0100%
This opponent (Palencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -5.5-5.5Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: -3.4-3.4Q3Q3: -2.7-2.7Q3: +4.9+4.9Q4Q4: -4.4-4.4Q4: -3.2-3.2
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -5.5-5.5Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: -3.4-3.4Q3Q3: -2.7-2.7Q3: +4.9+4.9Q4Q4: -4.4-4.4Q4: -3.2-3.2
PalenciaBilbao
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PalenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Breogan
#16
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H21/10
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
L
25-52
25
52
-27
A29/10
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H04/11
ACB
Murcia
#6
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H11/11
ACB
Tenerife
#5
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A18/11
ACB
Valencia
#4
L
47-56
47
56
-9
H25/11
ACB
Gran Canaria
#7
L
36-46
36
46
-10
A03/12
ACB
Granada
#17
L
37-55
37
55
-18
A09/12
ACB
Baskonia
#8
W
43-37
43
37
+6
A12/12
ACB
Basket Zaragoza
#12
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H17/12
ACB
82.1Avg total
37.7Scored
44.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.739.578.2-0.747%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.635.676.2+5.165%-
Last 30 away (13)36.244.580.8-8.323%-
Last 10 (10)37.744.482.1-6.730%-
Last 5 (5)40.648.088.6-7.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)37.143.880.8-6.717%-
vs Similar (5)36.443.079.4-6.640%-
vs Weaker (13)41.234.275.3+7.077%-
This opponent (Bilbao) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BilbaoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CSU Sibiu
#51
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A15/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Joventut Badalona
#10
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A19/11
ACB
Caledonia Gladiators
#26
W
34-26
34
26
+8
A22/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Unicaja
#2
L
26-46
26
46
-20
H25/11
ACB
Valencia
#4
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A03/12
ACB
Gottingen
#8
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H06/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Breogan
#16
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H09/12
ACB
FC Porto
#12
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A12/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Gran Canaria
#7
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A16/12
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H22/12
ACB
75.9Avg total
37.0Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.138.676.7-0.550%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.737.876.5+0.956%-
Last 30 away (14)37.439.576.9-2.143%-
Last 10 (10)37.038.975.9-1.950%-
Last 5 (5)37.640.277.8-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)36.640.477.0-3.933%-
vs Similar (15)38.538.476.9+0.160%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)39.536.375.8+3.250%-
This opponent (Palencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Palenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Palencia: 74.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.6 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.116.3
50.8%
53.0%32.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.89.1
34.0%
34.9%27.3
🏀 Free throws19.514.5
74.4%
75.6%14.5
They take 58.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bilbaotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bilbao: 71.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.818.5
47.7%
53.0%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.97.4
32.3%
34.9%22.2
🏀 Free throws17.812.6
70.8%
75.6%12.6
They take 61.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Palencia
LLLLLLLLLW
Bilbao
WLWLWWLWLW
#18
League position
#13
-18.9
Net rating
-1.1
101.8
Offensive rating
97.6
120.7
Defensive rating
98.7
50.8%
Effective FG%
48.0%
56.9%
Opp. effective FG%
49.3%
21.2%
Turnover %
19.3%
28.9%
Off. rebound %
27.1%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.29
34.0%
3-point %
32.3%
56.3%
Assist %
66.4%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence101.8 · 97.6Defence120.7 · 98.7Shooting50.8% · 48.0%3-point %34.0% · 32.3%Ball care21.2% · 19.3%Off. rebounds28.9% · 27.1%Free throws0.33 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)10% · 60%
■ Palencia   ■ Bilbao
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Palencia wins
3
Bilbao wins
DateGameScore
19/05/19Palencia v Bilbao61-57
17/05/19Palencia v Bilbao81-87
12/05/19Bilbao v Palencia77-86
10/05/19Bilbao v Palencia93-73
31/03/19Bilbao v Palencia88-59
07/12/18Palencia v Bilbao78-71
Palencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/23HBasket Zaragoza80-88
12/12/23ABaskonia82-94
09/12/23AGranada85-109
03/12/23AGran Canaria73-100
25/11/23HValencia77-101
18/11/23ATenerife71-92
11/11/23HMurcia66-76
04/11/23HBasquet Girona76-80
29/10/23AReal Madrid68-91
21/10/23HBreogan74-59
Bilbaolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/12/23HBasquet Girona80-74
16/12/23AGran Canaria75-83
12/12/23AFC Porto75-72
09/12/23HBreogan68-76
06/12/23HGottingen75-73
03/12/23AValencia85-79
25/11/23HUnicaja43-67
22/11/23ACaledonia Gladiators78-59
19/11/23AJoventut Badalona78-81
15/11/23ACSU Sibiu73-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Palencia
ACB 2023-24
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL7%
HomeWLLLL14%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1578
Win %7%14%0%
Points / game75.575.076.0
Allowed / game87.580.493.6
Point differential-11.9-5.4-17.6
Avg total163.0155.4169.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%14%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %7%14%0%
Bilbao
ACB 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW40%
HomeLLLLW50%
AwayLLLWL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1587
Win %40%50%29%
Points / game77.879.276.1
Allowed / game80.879.082.9
Point differential-3.0+0.2-6.7
Avg total158.6158.2159.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%12%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %7%12%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid1514193%91.777.2+14.5
2 Unicaja1613381%88.276.9+11.4
3 Valencia1510567%80.978.0+2.9
4 Barcelona1610662%85.479.6+5.8
5 Murcia1610662%83.879.6+4.2
6 Gran Canaria159660%83.583.8-0.3
7 Manresa169756%85.884.9+0.9
8 Baskonia158753%84.285.0-0.8
9 Tenerife168850%82.181.3+0.8
10 Joventut Badalona168850%81.187.1-6.1
11 Basquet Girona157847%82.586.4-3.9
12 Basket Zaragoza167944%81.982.3-0.4
13 Bilbao156940%77.880.8-3.0
14 Obradoiro CAB1661038%80.883.4-2.6
15 Granada1651131%83.886.6-2.8
16 MoraBanc Andorra1651131%81.584.8-3.3
17 Breogan1541127%74.180.1-6.1
18 Palencia151147%75.587.5-11.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Palencia2418132378
Bilbao1219212072
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