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Palencia vs Valencia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 25 Nov 2023
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 77-101
20-25 27-31 17-26 13-19
Position#18
Record1-9
FormWLLLL
Points / game73.6
Allowed / game82.0
vs
Position#4
Record7-3
FormWLLLL
Points / game78.8
Allowed / game76.8
SpainACBRound 11· Pabellon Municipal de Deportes
Domestic2023-24
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Palencia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valencia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PalenciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPalencia
Date
Competition
Obradoiro CAB
#15
L
64-84
64
84
-20
50avg 63
A23/09
ACB
Barcelona
#3
L
83-84 OT
83
84
-1
no box
H29/09
ACB
MoraBanc Andorra
#11
L
74-87
74
87
-13
62avg 63
A01/10
ACB
Joventut Badalona
#10
L
69-75
69
75
-6
55avg 63
H07/10
ACB
Manresa
#9
L
91-92
91
92
-1
86avg 63
A15/10
ACB
Breogan
#16
W
74-59
74
59
+15
80avg 63
H21/10
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
L
68-91
68
91
-23
46avg 63
A29/10
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
L
76-80
76
80
-4
65avg 63
H04/11
ACB
Murcia
#6
L
66-76
66
76
-10
58avg 63
H11/11
ACB
Tenerife
#5
L
71-92
71
92
-21
66avg 63
A18/11
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-28
11-19
18-27
15-10
18-19
7-15
23-16
24-22
21-20
19-23
23-21
11-23
17-14
12-21
19-25
21-15
22-16
27-34
22-20
20-22
12-17
24-8
24-20
14-14
11-30
14-22
18-15
25-24
23-23
17-15
21-24
15-18
20-21
18-19
18-19
10-17
16-30
19-19
18-19
18-24
155.6Avg total
73.6Scored
82.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)73.682.0155.6-8.410%
Season at home (5)73.674.8148.4-1.220%
Season away (5)73.689.2162.8-15.60%
Last 10 (10)73.682.0155.6-8.410%
Last 5 (5)71.079.6150.6-8.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)73.983.1157.0-9.212%
vs Similar (5)78.884.8163.6-6.020%
vs Weaker (17)83.671.5155.1+12.182%
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValenciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormValencia
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas
#13
W
87-72
87
72
+15
82avg 73
A27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#3
W
71-68
71
68
+3
58avg 73
H29/10
ACB
Alba Berlin
#18
W
79-71
79
71
+8
71avg 73
H02/11
Euroleague
Joventut Badalona
#10
L
76-80
76
80
-4
67avg 73
A05/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#12
L
52-83
52
83
-31
44avg 73
A09/11
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#12
W
76-69
76
69
+7
69avg 73
H12/11
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
L
73-76
73
76
-3
63avg 73
H14/11
Euroleague
Barcelona
#5
L
70-74
70
74
-4
55avg 73
A17/11
Euroleague
Baskonia
#8
L
74-83
74
83
-9
67avg 73
A19/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#2
L
73-90
73
90
-17
71avg 73
A23/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-12
32-18
20-23
15-19
18-19
27-14
13-16
13-19
15-14
26-25
15-15
23-17
15-21
25-15
15-24
21-20
12-23
19-21
8-20
13-19
22-23
15-20
25-15
14-11
26-24
23-19
13-20
11-13
16-25
17-12
19-17
18-20
19-15
18-21
20-26
17-21
18-27
17-22
18-23
20-18
149.7Avg total
73.1Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)78.876.8155.6+2.070%
Season at home (5)80.276.8157.0+3.480%
Season away (5)77.476.8154.2+0.660%
Last 10 (10)73.176.6149.7-3.540%
Last 5 (5)73.278.4151.6-5.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)72.677.1149.7-4.540%
vs Similar (11)79.680.4160.0-0.755%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)80.476.7157.1+3.867%
This opponent (Palencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -3.8-3.8Q1: -2.2-2.2Q2Q2: -2.7-2.7Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -3.3-3.3Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: -1.2-1.2
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -3.8-3.8Q1: -2.2-2.2Q2Q2: -2.7-2.7Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -3.3-3.3Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: -1.2-1.2
PalenciaValencia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PalenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Obradoiro CAB
#15
L
31-47
31
47
-16
A23/09
ACB
Barcelona
#3
L
25-34
25
34
-9
H29/09
ACB
MoraBanc Andorra
#11
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A01/10
ACB
Joventut Badalona
#10
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H07/10
ACB
Manresa
#9
L
49-50
49
50
-1
A15/10
ACB
Breogan
#16
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H21/10
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
L
25-52
25
52
-27
A29/10
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H04/11
ACB
Murcia
#6
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H11/11
ACB
Tenerife
#5
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A18/11
ACB
76.1Avg total
34.8Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.837.676.4+1.353%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.334.274.5+6.171%-
Last 30 away (13)36.941.978.8-5.031%-
Last 10 (10)34.841.376.1-6.520%-
Last 5 (5)34.840.875.6-6.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)34.942.577.4-7.612%-
vs Similar (5)37.639.877.4-2.260%-
vs Weaker (17)41.134.675.6+6.571%-
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas
#13
W
52-30
52
30
+22
A27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#3
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H29/10
ACB
Alba Berlin
#18
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H02/11
Euroleague
Joventut Badalona
#10
W
40-36
40
36
+4
A05/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#12
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A09/11
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#12
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H12/11
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
W
49-43
49
43
+6
H14/11
Euroleague
Barcelona
#5
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A17/11
Euroleague
Baskonia
#8
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A19/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#2
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A23/11
Euroleague
79.0Avg total
40.0Scored
39.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.238.577.7+0.753%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.539.078.5+0.556%-
Last 30 away (14)38.837.976.7+0.950%-
Last 10 (10)40.039.079.0+1.060%-
Last 5 (5)38.241.679.8-3.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)36.338.975.2-2.640%-
vs Similar (11)42.939.382.2+3.673%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)37.837.174.9+0.744%-
This opponent (Palencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Palenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Palencia: 71.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.417.0
52.4%
53.0%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.08.2
31.6%
34.9%24.7
🏀 Free throws19.213.0
67.6%
75.6%13.0
They take 58.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Valenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valencia: 71.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.9 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.0 points a game
48%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.019.5
47.6%
53.0%39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.66.3
32.1%
34.9%18.9
🏀 Free throws18.214.0
76.9%
75.6%14.0
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 19.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/10 games with a box score before 25 Nov 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Palencia
LLLLWLLLLL
Valencia
LLLLWLLWWW
#18
League position
#4
-13.3
Net rating
-5.8
100.8
Offensive rating
101.8
114.0
Defensive rating
107.6
50.2%
Effective FG%
47.8%
53.2%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
20.3%
Turnover %
19.1%
29.3%
Off. rebound %
32.4%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.30
31.6%
3-point %
32.1%
52.4%
Assist %
54.7%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence100.8 · 101.8Defence114.0 · 107.6Shooting50.2% · 47.8%3-point %31.6% · 32.1%Ball care20.3% · 19.1%Off. rebounds29.3% · 32.4%Free throws0.33 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)10% · 40%
■ Palencia   ■ Valencia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Palencia wins
0
Valencia wins
No previous meetings.
Palencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/11/23ATenerife71-92
11/11/23HMurcia66-76
04/11/23HBasquet Girona76-80
29/10/23AReal Madrid68-91
21/10/23HBreogan74-59
15/10/23AManresa91-92
07/10/23HJoventut Badalona69-75
01/10/23AMoraBanc Andorra74-87
29/09/23HBarcelona83-84 OT
23/09/23AObradoiro CAB64-84
Valencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/11/23APanathinaikos73-90
19/11/23ABaskonia74-83
17/11/23ABarcelona70-74
14/11/23HReal Madrid73-76
12/11/23HBasket Zaragoza76-69
09/11/23AOlimpia Milano52-83
05/11/23AJoventut Badalona76-80
02/11/23HAlba Berlin79-71
29/10/23HBarcelona71-68
27/10/23AZalgiris Kaunas87-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Palencia
ACB 2023-24
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL10%
HomeLLWLL20%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %10%20%0%
Points / game73.673.673.6
Allowed / game82.074.889.2
Point differential-8.4-1.2-15.6
Avg total155.6148.4162.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %10%20%0%
Valencia
ACB 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL70%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayWWWLL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %70%80%60%
Points / game78.880.277.4
Allowed / game76.876.876.8
Point differential+2.0+3.4+0.6
Avg total155.6157.0154.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)67% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid109190%91.680.6+11.0
2 Unicaja107370%89.682.3+7.3
3 Murcia107370%84.879.2+5.6
4 Barcelona107370%83.778.9+4.8
5 Valencia107370%78.876.8+2.0
6 Manresa106460%85.183.9+1.2
7 Basquet Girona106460%82.581.4+1.1
8 Gran Canaria106460%81.984.1-2.2
9 Tenerife105550%81.281.2+0.0
10 Baskonia105550%83.784.8-1.1
11 Joventut Badalona105550%82.587.8-5.3
12 Obradoiro CAB104640%81.281.5-0.3
13 MoraBanc Andorra104640%80.882.2-1.4
14 Bilbao104640%81.683.3-1.7
15 Basket Zaragoza103730%82.084.0-2.0
16 Granada102820%85.089.6-4.6
17 Breogan102820%73.379.3-6.0
18 Palencia101910%73.682.0-8.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Palencia2027171377
Valencia25312619101
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