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Real Madrid vs Valencia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 95-76
23-17 25-22 32-16 15-21
Position#1
Record1-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game84.0
Allowed / game79.0
vs
Position#3
Record1-0
FormWWLLW
Points / game89.0
Allowed / game81.0
SpainSpanish CupSpanish Cup - Semi-finals· Palacio de Deportes José María Martín Carpena
Other2024
Meetings · Real Madrid v Valencia
14 Mar 2027
MAD v VAL
upcoming
17 Dec 2026
MAD v VAL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MAD96
VAL79
18 Jan 2026
MAD94
VAL79
28 Sep 2025
MAD94
VAL98
22 Jun 2025
MAD102
VAL96
20 Jun 2025
MAD89
VAL75
04 May 2025
MAD96
VAL89
17 Feb 2024
MAD95
VAL76
11 Jan 2024
MAD96
VAL86
31 Dec 2023
MAD83
VAL74
09 Mar 2023
MAD95
VAL91
16 Feb 2023
MAD86
VAL85
04 Dec 2022
MAD79
VAL62
06 Feb 2022
MAD93
VAL94
10 Jun 2021
MAD80
VAL77
06 Jun 2021
MAD81
VAL70
09 May 2021
MAD69
VAL79
11 Feb 2021
MAD85
VAL74
08 Oct 2020
MAD77
VAL93
15 Feb 2020
MAD91
VAL68
21 May 2019
MAD v VAL
upcoming
25 Mar 2018
MAD83
VAL71
19 Dec 2017
MAD91
VAL72
11 Jun 2017
MAD79
VAL86
09 Jun 2017
MAD87
VAL81
19 Feb 2017
MAD97
VAL95
22 Jan 2017
MAD85
VAL71
04 Jun 2016
MAD97
VAL88
02 Jun 2016
MAD82
VAL57
11 Oct 2015
MAD82
VAL88
07 Jun 2015
MAD89
VAL93
04 Jun 2015
MAD81
VAL71
02 Nov 2014
MAD90
VAL71
26 Sep 2014
MAD89
VAL76
27 Apr 2014
MAD105
VAL110
20 Dec 2012
MAD87
VAL84
04 Dec 2011
MAD81
VAL64
07 Apr 2011
MAD66
VAL58
24 Mar 2011
MAD75
VAL81
22 Mar 2011
MAD71
VAL65
12 Feb 2011
MAD69
VAL59
23 Oct 2010
MAD75
VAL63
05 Dec 2009
MAD77
VAL66
22 Mar 2009
MAD80
VAL76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Real Madrid winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valencia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Real MadridSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Monaco
#3
L
74-98
74
98
-24
61avg 76
A19/01
Euroleague
Bilbao
#13
W
95-80
95
80
+15
99avg 76
H21/01
ACB
Olympiacos
#4
W
90-85
90
85
+5
92avg 76
H25/01
Euroleague
Gran Canaria
#7
L
77-100
77
100
-23
60avg 76
A28/01
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#6
W
106-101
106
101
+5
110avg 76
H30/01
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#17
W
86-79
86
79
+7
81avg 76
H01/02
Euroleague
Basquet Girona
#14
W
92-79
92
79
+13
93avg 76
H04/02
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#12
L
76-81
76
81
-5
76avg 76
A08/02
Euroleague
Breogan
#16
W
80-73
80
73
+7
72avg 76
A11/02
ACB
Murcia
#5
W
84-79
84
79
+5
79avg 76
H15/02
Spanish Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-33
20-23
14-24
20-18
30-22
18-16
28-14
19-28
30-13
22-17
16-25
22-30
9-25
27-32
24-21
17-22
29-18
23-27
28-28
26-28
24-18
21-17
17-15
24-29
28-18
20-26
20-14
24-21
19-23
10-25
25-18
22-15
15-24
24-18
15-15
26-16
25-17
19-17
19-22
21-23
171.5Avg total
86.0Scored
85.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)84.079.0163.0+5.0100%
Season at home (1)84.079.0163.0+5.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)86.085.5171.5+0.570%
Last 5 (5)83.678.2161.8+5.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)85.778.0163.7+7.7100%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)88.880.5169.3+8.377%
This opponent (Valencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValenciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormValencia
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#12
W
84-72
84
72
+12
79avg 71
H19/01
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#12
W
85-75
85
75
+10
70avg 71
A21/01
ACB
Baskonia
#9
W
77-62
77
62
+15
71avg 71
A26/01
Euroleague
Unicaja
#2
L
63-83
63
83
-20
50avg 71
H28/01
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#16
L
64-82
64
82
-18
52avg 71
A30/01
Euroleague
Alba Berlin
#18
W
81-66
81
66
+15
80avg 71
A01/02
Euroleague
Barcelona
#3
W
79-76
79
76
+3
68avg 71
A04/02
ACB
Olympiacos
#4
L
65-78
65
78
-13
62avg 71
H08/02
Euroleague
Bilbao
#13
L
78-93
78
93
-15
75avg 71
A11/02
ACB
Gran Canaria
#6
W
89-81 OT
89
81
+8
no box
A15/02
Spanish Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-19
11-21
29-19
23-13
13-20
23-19
22-20
27-16
16-13
29-16
13-19
19-14
7-19
18-22
17-16
21-26
12-11
18-28
19-22
15-21
20-15
22-15
23-15
16-21
19-19
19-21
22-18
19-18
19-21
20-19
9-20
17-18
18-28
15-14
25-28
20-23
17-18
15-17
16-19
29-23
153.3Avg total
76.5Scored
76.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)89.081.0170.0+8.0100%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)89.081.0170.0+8.0100%
Last 10 (10)76.576.8153.3-0.360%
Last 5 (5)78.478.8157.2-0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)72.181.1153.3-9.014%
vs Similar (15)80.278.1158.3+2.160%
vs Weaker (7)83.979.6163.4+4.357%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: -2.1-2.1Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +1.3+1.3
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: -2.1-2.1Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +1.3+1.3
Real MadridValencia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Monaco
#3
L
40-56
40
56
-16
A19/01
Euroleague
Bilbao
#13
W
48-38
48
38
+10
H21/01
ACB
Olympiacos
#4
W
52-30
52
30
+22
H25/01
Euroleague
Gran Canaria
#7
L
36-57
36
57
-21
A28/01
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#6
W
52-45
52
45
+7
H30/01
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#17
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H01/02
Euroleague
Basquet Girona
#14
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H04/02
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#12
L
29-48
29
48
-19
A08/02
Euroleague
Breogan
#16
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A11/02
ACB
Murcia
#5
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H15/02
Spanish Cup
86.2Avg total
43.3Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.139.082.1+4.177%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.136.281.3+8.993%-
Last 30 away (16)41.441.582.9-0.162%-
Last 10 (10)43.342.986.2+0.460%-
Last 5 (5)41.040.681.6+0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)45.037.082.0+8.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)42.839.582.3+3.473%-
This opponent (Valencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#12
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H19/01
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#12
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A21/01
ACB
Baskonia
#9
W
45-29
45
29
+16
A26/01
Euroleague
Unicaja
#2
L
25-41
25
41
-16
H28/01
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#16
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A30/01
Euroleague
Alba Berlin
#18
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A01/02
Euroleague
Barcelona
#3
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A04/02
ACB
Olympiacos
#4
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H08/02
Euroleague
Bilbao
#13
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A11/02
ACB
Gran Canaria
#6
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A15/02
Spanish Cup
72.7Avg total
35.2Scored
37.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.939.278.1-0.340%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.741.881.5-2.127%-
Last 30 away (15)38.136.674.7+1.553%-
Last 10 (10)35.237.572.7-2.320%-
Last 5 (5)36.837.474.2-0.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)36.439.976.3-3.429%-
vs Similar (15)39.738.578.2+1.353%-
vs Weaker (7)40.440.781.1-0.329%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 85.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.3 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 87.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.318.9
55.1%
54.1%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.19.7
37.2%
35.9%29.1
🏀 Free throws21.618.3
84.7%
79.8%18.3
They take 60.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Valenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valencia: 75.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 87.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.517.4
49.0%
54.1%34.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.08.0
32.0%
35.9%24.0
🏀 Free throws21.616.8
77.8%
79.8%16.8
They take 60.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Feb 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Real Madrid
WWLWWWLWWL
Valencia
WLLWWLLWWW
#1
League position
#3
+1.0
Net rating
-0.4
115.7
Offensive rating
104.9
114.7
Defensive rating
105.3
55.4%
Effective FG%
48.6%
54.3%
Opp. effective FG%
51.3%
16.8%
Turnover %
16.9%
27.7%
Off. rebound %
28.8%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.36
37.2%
3-point %
32.0%
67.8%
Assist %
62.2%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence115.7 · 104.9Defence114.7 · 105.3Shooting55.4% · 48.6%3-point %37.2% · 32.0%Ball care16.8% · 16.9%Off. rebounds27.7% · 28.8%Free throws0.36 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Real Madrid   ■ Valencia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Real Madrid wins
1
Valencia wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/24HMurcia84-79
11/02/24ABreogan80-73
08/02/24AOlimpia Milano76-81
04/02/24HBasquet Girona92-79
01/02/24HLyon-Villeurbanne86-79
30/01/24HMaccabi Tel Aviv106-101
28/01/24AGran Canaria77-100
25/01/24HOlympiacos90-85
21/01/24HBilbao95-80
19/01/24AMonaco74-98
Valencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/24AGran Canaria89-81 OT
11/02/24ABilbao78-93
08/02/24HOlympiacos65-78
04/02/24ABarcelona79-76
01/02/24AAlba Berlin81-66
30/01/24ACrvena zvezda64-82
28/01/24HUnicaja63-83
26/01/24ABaskonia77-62
21/01/24ABasket Zaragoza85-75
19/01/24HOlimpia Milano84-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Real Madrid
Spanish Cup 2024
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game84.084.0-
Allowed / game79.079.0-
Point differential+5.0+5.0-
Avg total163.0163.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Valencia
Spanish Cup 2024
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
Home--
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %100%-100%
Points / game89.0-89.0
Allowed / game81.0-81.0
Point differential+8.0-+8.0
Avg total170.0-170.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %100%-100%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Barcelona110100%102.091.0+11.0
2 Tenerife110100%91.083.0+8.0
3 Valencia110100%89.081.0+8.0
4 Real Madrid110100%84.079.0+5.0
5 Murcia1010%79.084.0-5.0
6 Gran Canaria1010%81.089.0-8.0
7 Unicaja1010%83.091.0-8.0
8 Manresa1010%91.0102.0-11.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Real Madrid2325321595
Valencia1722162176
← all games of the day
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