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Valencia vs Zalgiris Kaunas Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 04 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 19:30
Scheduled
Position#3
Record8-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game96.4
Allowed / game88.9
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
5.0/10
Around normal
Position#8
Record7-4
FormWWWWW
Points / game85.6
Allowed / game82.4
EuropeEuroleagueRound 29· Roig Arena
European cup2026
Meetings · Valencia v Zalgiris Kaunas
04 Mar 2027
VAL v ZAL
upcoming
05 Mar 2026
VAL91
ZAL87
09 Jan 2024
VAL79
ZAL84
25 Nov 2022
VAL76
ZAL80
27 Jan 2021
VAL78
ZAL79
21 Dec 2017
VAL63
ZAL71
19 Jan 2011
VAL73
ZAL59
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valencia win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Zalgiris Kaunas win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValenciaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormValencia
Date
Competition
Murcia
#11
W
116-93
116
93
+23
113avg 96
H18/10
ACB
Paris
#14
W
104-93
104
93
+11
98avg 96
A23/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#4
W
84-75
84
75
+9
69avg 96
H25/10
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
W
86-78
86
78
+8
73avg 96
H27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#4
L
94-98
94
98
-4
86avg 96
A30/10
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#17
W
111-79
111
79
+32
107avg 96
A01/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
84-73
84
73
+11
no box
A05/11
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
100-93
100
93
+7
no box
A08/11
ACB
Bayern
#18
W
102-87
102
87
+15
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Leyma Coruna
#14
W
111-97
111
97
+14
no box
H15/11
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-14
33-22
28-24
30-33
32-26
25-28
26-16
21-23
27-19
14-16
18-18
25-22
19-9
17-16
24-21
26-32
25-30
17-14
26-25
26-29
20-21
26-18
31-29
34-11
24-15
16-22
11-22
33-14
22-27
19-25
30-20
29-21
29-19
23-22
21-24
29-22
27-24
36-24
27-24
21-25
185.8Avg total
99.2Scored
86.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)96.488.9185.3+7.573%
Season at home (6)96.288.0184.2+8.267%
Season away (5)96.690.0186.6+6.680%
Last 10 (10)99.286.6185.8+12.690%
Last 5 (5)101.685.8187.4+15.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)89.085.0174.0+4.067%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)99.387.6186.9+11.781%
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Zalgiris KaunasLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKaunas
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
70-85
70
85
-15
63avg 88
H16/10
Euroleague
Taurage
#9
W
96-76
96
76
+20
95avg 88
H18/10
LKL
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
105-85
105
85
+20
106avg 88
H23/10
Euroleague
Jonava
#7
W
86-63
86
63
+23
93avg 88
H25/10
LKL
Virtus Bologna
#16
W
91-74
91
74
+17
89avg 88
A28/10
Euroleague
Partizan
#11
W
87-80
87
80
+7
84avg 88
H30/10
Euroleague
Rytas
#2
W
94-89
94
89
+5
no box
A02/11
LKL
Besiktas
#13
W
83-67
83
67
+16
no box
A06/11
Euroleague
Juventus
#8
W
94-85
94
85
+9
no box
A08/11
LKL
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
86-83
86
83
+3
no box
A12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-21
24-21
20-25
14-18
25-23
18-19
30-14
23-20
29-20
21-14
31-25
24-26
24-15
17-11
24-14
21-23
14-22
23-13
28-18
26-21
27-21
17-19
25-17
18-23
25-21
17-28
28-20
24-20
20-17
25-14
17-13
21-23
21-17
27-25
12-20
34-23
18-25
27-16
18-11
23-31
167.9Avg total
89.2Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)85.682.4168.0+3.364%
Season at home (4)88.285.8174.0+2.550%
Season away (7)84.180.4164.6+3.771%
Last 10 (10)89.278.7167.9+10.590%
Last 5 (5)88.880.8169.6+8.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)91.093.0184.0-2.00%
vs Similar (4)84.584.2168.8+0.275%
vs Weaker (25)93.478.2171.6+15.292%
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +4.6+4.6Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +5.6+5.6Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: +0.0+0.0
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +4.6+4.6Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +5.6+5.6Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: +0.0+0.0
ValenciaZalgiris Kaunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murcia
#11
W
58-36
58
36
+22
H18/10
ACB
Paris
#14
W
57-54
57
54
+3
A23/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#4
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H25/10
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#4
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A30/10
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#17
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A01/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A05/11
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A08/11
ACB
Bayern
#18
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H12/11
Euroleague
Leyma Coruna
#14
W
63-48
63
48
+15
H15/11
ACB
88.7Avg total
47.6Scored
41.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.641.188.6+6.577%-
Last 30 at home (16)50.040.190.1+9.981%-
Last 30 away (14)44.842.186.9+2.671%-
Last 10 (10)47.641.188.7+6.580%-
Last 5 (5)48.443.491.8+5.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)45.331.376.7+14.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)47.842.190.0+5.774%-
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Zalgiris KaunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H16/10
Euroleague
Taurage
#9
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H18/10
LKL
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
50-34
50
34
+16
H23/10
Euroleague
Jonava
#7
W
41-26
41
26
+15
H25/10
LKL
Virtus Bologna
#16
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A28/10
Euroleague
Partizan
#11
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H30/10
Euroleague
Rytas
#2
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A02/11
LKL
Besiktas
#13
W
45-31
45
31
+14
A06/11
Euroleague
Juventus
#8
W
48-42
48
42
+6
A08/11
LKL
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A12/11
Euroleague
81.3Avg total
43.1Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.039.284.3+5.870%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.739.586.3+7.280%-
Last 30 away (15)43.338.982.3+4.460%-
Last 10 (10)43.138.281.3+4.980%-
Last 5 (5)44.840.685.4+4.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)44.044.088.0+0.00%-
vs Similar (4)42.244.086.2-1.825%-
vs Weaker (25)45.538.383.8+7.280%-
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Valenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valencia: 95.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.025.0
56.8%
55.2%50.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.210.1
34.6%
35.7%30.3
🏀 Free throws20.715.6
75.4%
77.1%15.6
They take 73.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Zalgiris Kaunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Zalgiris Kaunas: 88.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.319.8
56.1%
55.2%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.910.8
43.4%
35.7%32.4
🏀 Free throws21.416.0
74.8%
77.1%16.0
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Valencia
WWWWWLWWWW
Zalgiris Kaunas
WWWWWWWWWL
#3
League position
#8
+8.9
Net rating
+11.2
108.3
Offensive rating
106.4
99.4
Defensive rating
95.2
54.8%
Effective FG%
59.8%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
52.6%
8.8%
Turnover %
16.4%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.36
34.6%
3-point %
43.4%
51.0%
Assist %
69.0%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence108.3 · 106.4Defence99.4 · 95.2Shooting54.8% · 59.8%3-point %34.6% · 43.4%Ball care8.8% · 16.4%Free throws0.28 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)90% · 90%
■ Valencia   ■ Zalgiris Kaunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Valencia wins
7
Zalgiris Kaunas wins
Valencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HLeyma Coruna111-97
12/11/26HBayern102-87
08/11/26ASan Pablo Burgos100-93
05/11/26AOlimpia Milano84-73
01/11/26AMoraBanc Andorra111-79
30/10/26ABarcelona94-98
27/10/26HFenerbahce86-78
25/10/26HBaskonia84-75
23/10/26AParis104-93
18/10/26HMurcia116-93
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AOlimpia Milano86-83
08/11/26AJuventus94-85
06/11/26ABesiktas83-67
02/11/26ARytas94-89
30/10/26HPartizan87-80
28/10/26AVirtus Bologna91-74
25/10/26HJonava86-63
23/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne105-85
18/10/26HTaurage96-76
16/10/26HAnadolu Efes70-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valencia
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW73%
HomeWLLWW67%
AwayWWWLW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %73%67%80%
Points / game96.496.296.6
Allowed / game88.988.090.0
Point differential+7.5+8.2+6.6
Avg total185.3184.2186.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%50%60%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %9%17%0%
Zalgiris Kaunas
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW64%
HomeLLWW50%
AwayWLWWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %64%50%71%
Points / game85.688.284.1
Allowed / game82.485.880.4
Point differential+3.3+2.5+3.7
Avg total168.0174.0164.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%25%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos118373%86.478.5+7.9
2 Olympiacos118373%88.580.7+7.7
3 Valencia118373%96.488.9+7.5
4 Barcelona118373%89.687.4+2.3
5 Real Madrid117464%98.590.1+8.4
6 Crvena zvezda117464%83.377.7+5.5
7 Fenerbahce117464%82.978.6+4.3
8 Zalgiris Kaunas117464%85.682.4+3.3
9 Dubai117464%86.585.6+0.9
10 Hapoel Tel-Aviv116555%90.487.2+3.2
11 Partizan116555%79.577.7+1.7
12 Anadolu Efes115645%85.987.5-1.5
13 Besiktas115645%88.490.9-2.5
14 Paris115645%91.094.1-3.1
15 Lyon-Villeurbanne114736%88.593.2-4.6
16 Virtus Bologna114736%86.190.7-4.6
17 Maccabi Tel Aviv113827%84.392.1-7.8
18 Bayern113827%86.895.2-8.4
19 Olimpia Milano111109%81.389.3-8.0
20 Baskonia111109%79.991.9-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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