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Vasco vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 08 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 20:10
Final 88-78
23-15 18-16 31-17 16-30
Position#7
Record14-12
FormLLLWW
Points / game76.6
Allowed / game76.0
Vasco 🏆
Brazil
vs
Position#13
Record11-15
FormLLLWL
Points / game76.3
Allowed / game78.7
BrazilNBB· Sao Januario Gymnasium
Other2024-25
Meetings · Vasco v Sao Paulo
08 Mar 2025
VASC88
SAO 78
30 Mar 2024
VASC70
SAO 80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vasco winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VascoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVasco
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
L
69-75
69
75
-6
55avg 70
H29/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
79-99
79
99
-20
72avg 70
A09/01
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
70-87
70
87
-17
64avg 70
A11/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
76-74
76
74
+2
82avg 70
H14/01
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
75-74
75
74
+1
68avg 70
H18/01
NBB
Flamengo
#1
L
73-92
73
92
-19
63avg 70
A26/01
Super 8
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
82-88
82
88
-6
76avg 70
A04/02
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
71-84
71
84
-13
65avg 70
A06/02
NBB
Pato
#14
W
98-86
98
86
+12
104avg 70
H14/02
NBB
Mogi
#16
W
104-82
104
82
+22
114avg 70
H28/02
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-20
10-18
15-15
25-22
21-22
18-29
20-27
20-21
15-27
24-25
19-17
12-18
24-21
16-18
20-23
16-12
21-18
18-14
17-23
19-19
24-29
17-14
20-20
12-29
18-26
16-11
27-24
21-27
26-23
10-13
20-26
15-22
18-19
29-24
29-21
22-22
20-20
27-25
24-21
33-16
163.8Avg total
79.7Scored
84.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)76.676.0152.6+0.754%
Season at home (14)78.175.3153.4+2.857%
Season away (12)74.976.8151.7-1.850%
Last 10 (10)79.784.1163.8-4.440%
Last 5 (5)85.686.4172.0-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)66.770.3137.0-3.733%
vs Similar ◀ (19)77.777.7155.5+0.053%
vs Weaker (7)77.473.9151.3+3.657%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Paulistano
#12
L
76-80
76
80
-4
77avg 73
A28/12
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
73-75
73
75
-2
70avg 73
A11/01
NBB
Mogi
#16
L
69-80
69
80
-11
66avg 73
H17/01
NBB
Franca
#2
L
65-75
65
75
-10
56avg 73
A21/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
80-89
80
89
-9
75avg 73
H23/01
NBB
Minas
#2
L
66-82
66
82
-16
60avg 73
A25/01
Super 8
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
66-90
66
90
-24
50avg 73
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
71-80
71
80
-9
71avg 73
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
68-66
68
66
+2
63avg 73
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
75-79
75
79
-4
75avg 73
H04/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-24
29-19
18-21
14-16
21-18
12-23
20-18
20-16
14-26
20-19
15-24
20-11
13-16
15-20
20-19
17-20
23-22
18-20
19-28
20-19
24-16
14-20
18-25
10-21
18-22
14-31
18-18
16-19
15-16
15-24
26-27
15-13
9-9
28-18
20-17
11-22
20-18
18-15
23-32
14-14
150.5Avg total
70.9Scored
79.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)76.378.7155.0-2.342%
Season at home (14)76.877.9154.6-1.150%
Season away (12)75.879.6155.3-3.833%
Last 10 (10)70.979.6150.5-8.710%
Last 5 (5)69.279.4148.6-10.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)73.780.6154.3-6.938%
vs Similar ◀ (12)78.781.2159.9-2.642%
vs Weaker (4)78.577.0155.5+1.550%
This opponent (Vasco) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -2.6-2.6Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: -1.4-1.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -2.6-2.6Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: -1.4-1.4
VascoSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VascoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
L
29-38
29
38
-9
H29/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
39-51
39
51
-12
A09/01
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
39-52
39
52
-13
A11/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H14/01
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H18/01
NBB
Flamengo
#1
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A26/01
Super 8
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A04/02
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
D
36-36
36
36
+0
A06/02
NBB
Pato
#14
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H14/02
NBB
Mogi
#16
W
47-45
47
45
+2
H28/02
NBB
80.7Avg total
39.1Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.136.271.3-1.140%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.036.272.2-0.250%-
Last 30 away (14)34.136.170.2-2.129%-
Last 10 (10)39.141.680.7-2.540%-
Last 5 (5)41.040.881.8+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)29.033.362.3-4.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)35.937.173.0-1.242%-
vs Weaker (7)34.733.968.6+0.943%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paulistano
#12
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A28/12
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A11/01
NBB
Mogi
#16
L
34-45
34
45
-11
H17/01
NBB
Franca
#2
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A21/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H23/01
NBB
Minas
#2
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A25/01
Super 8
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
32-53
32
53
-21
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H04/03
NBB
75.1Avg total
35.5Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.839.676.4-2.840%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.739.175.9-2.440%-
Last 30 away (15)36.840.176.9-3.340%-
Last 10 (10)35.539.675.1-4.140%-
Last 5 (5)35.037.872.8-2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)33.840.574.4-6.723%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)39.739.879.4-0.150%-
vs Weaker (4)37.237.074.2+0.250%-
This opponent (Vasco) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Vascotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vasco: 78.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.318.4
58.8%
50.9%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.17.8
29.9%
33.0%23.4
🏀 Free throws25.318.7
73.9%
72.7%18.7
They take 57.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 69.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.016.9
51.2%
50.9%33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.76.9
30.4%
33.0%20.7
🏀 Free throws22.315.4
69.1%
72.7%15.4
They take 55.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Vasco
WWLLLWWLLL
Sao Paulo
LWLLLLLLLL
#7
League position
#13
-6.2
Net rating
-12.2
106.2
Offensive rating
95.8
112.4
Defensive rating
108.0
52.4%
Effective FG%
48.9%
51.1%
Opp. effective FG%
52.0%
19.0%
Turnover %
22.5%
25.5%
Off. rebound %
25.4%
0.44
Free-throw rate
0.40
29.9%
3-point %
30.4%
74.4%
Assist %
71.8%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence106.2 · 95.8Defence112.4 · 108.0Shooting52.4% · 48.9%3-point %29.9% · 30.4%Ball care19.0% · 22.5%Off. rebounds25.5% · 25.4%Free throws0.44 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)40% · 10%
■ Vasco   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Vasco wins
1
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
06/12/24Sao Paulo v Vasco84-87
30/03/24Vasco v Sao Paulo70-80
09/12/23Sao Paulo v Vasco70-75
Vascolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/25HMogi104-82
14/02/25HPato98-86
06/02/25AUniao Corinthians71-84
04/02/25ACaxias do Sul82-88
26/01/25AFlamengo73-92
18/01/25HCearense75-74
14/01/25HUnifacisa76-74
11/01/25APinheiros70-87
09/01/25ACorinthians Paulista79-99
29/12/24HSao Jose69-75
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/25HCearense75-79
13/02/25HUnifacisa68-66
08/02/25APinheiros71-80
04/02/25HCorinthians Paulista66-90
25/01/25AMinas66-82
23/01/25HSao Jose80-89
21/01/25AFranca65-75
17/01/25HMogi69-80
11/01/25ABauru73-75
28/12/24APaulistano76-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vasco
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW54%
HomeLWWWW57%
AwayWLLLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %54%57%50%
Points / game76.678.174.9
Allowed / game76.075.376.8
Point differential+0.7+2.8-1.8
Avg total152.6153.4151.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%29%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)50% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %4%0%8%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL42%
HomeLLLWL50%
AwayLLLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %42%50%33%
Points / game76.376.875.8
Allowed / game78.777.979.6
Point differential-2.3-1.1-3.8
Avg total155.0154.6155.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%29%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (12)60% (5)43% (7)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas2521484%82.271.6+10.6
2 Flamengo2620677%84.373.9+10.4
3 Brasilia2718967%82.179.6+2.5
4 Franca2516964%83.478.3+5.0
5 Bauru26151158%78.679.0-0.5
6 Uniao Corinthians25141156%78.579.0-0.6
7 Vasco26141254%76.676.0+0.7
8 Paulistano26131350%78.275.3+2.9
9 Sao Jose28141450%78.178.2-0.2
10 Pinheiros27131448%75.375.3+0.1
11 Unifacisa27131448%75.475.3+0.1
12 Corinthians Paulista28131546%80.179.3+0.8
13 Sao Paulo26111542%76.378.7-2.3
14 Pato2791833%81.785.0-3.3
15 Mogi2791833%74.080.6-6.7
16 Caxias do Sul2581732%73.678.9-5.3
17 Botafogo2681831%73.480.5-7.1
18 Cearense2781930%72.078.3-6.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Vasco2318311688
Sao Paulo1516173078
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