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Western Michigan vs Toledo Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 79-90
41-50 38-40
Position#325
Record8-15
FormLWLLL
Points / game74.6
Allowed / game79.6
vs
Position#156
Record12-12
FormWWLLL
Points / game80.9
Allowed / game77.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Western Michigan v Toledo
12 Dec 2026
WEST v TOLE
upcoming
11 Feb 2026
WEST79
TOLE90
04 Jan 2025
WEST70
TOLE76
22 Feb 2022
WEST50
TOLE92
02 Jan 2021
WEST59
TOLE70
22 Feb 2020
WEST59
TOLE68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Western Michigan winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toledo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Western MichiganUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toledo
#156
L
79-84
79
84
-5
A30/12
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
76-87
76
87
-11
A07/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
79-62
79
62
+17
H10/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
82-85
82
85
-3
H14/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
89-104
89
104
-15
A17/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
54-72
54
72
-18
H21/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
77-65
77
65
+12
H24/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
L
65-85
65
85
-20
A28/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
71-91
71
91
-20
A04/02
NCAA
Texas State
#125
L
61-77
61
77
-16
A07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
41-32
38-52
35-39
41-48
30-36
49-26
35-36
47-49
51-52
38-52
23-32
31-40
35-31
42-34
30-35
35-50
28-44
43-47
25-36
36-41
154.5Avg total
73.3Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)74.679.6154.2-5.035%
Season at home (11)78.971.8150.7+7.164%
Season away (12)70.786.8157.4-16.18%
Last 10 (10)73.381.2154.5-7.920%
Last 5 (5)65.678.0143.6-12.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)71.582.2153.7-10.621%
vs Similar (8)75.171.2146.4+3.975%
vs Weaker (2)95.560.5156.0+35.0100%
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kent State
#52
L
84-87
84
87
-3
A16/01
NCAA
Valle de Egues
#28
L
81-83
81
83
-2
A17/01
Segunda FEB
UMass
#189
L
82-84
82
84
-2
A20/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
73-72
73
72
+1
H24/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
81-91
81
91
-10
A28/01
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
73-55
73
55
+18
H31/01
NCAA
Leonesa
#19
W
73-54
73
54
+19
H01/02
Segunda FEB
Kent State
#52
L
72-75
72
75
-3
H04/02
NCAA
Ponferrada
#14
L
63-89
63
89
-26
A07/02
Segunda FEB
James Madison
#169
L
71-73
71
73
-2
A07/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
41-35
0-0
43-52
19-23
21-17
24-16
17-27
0-0
34-35
0-0
48-49
0-0
39-38
0-0
34-34
0-0
49-41
0-0
32-50
0-0
39-27
0-0
34-28
25-13
12-12
15-19
21-10
0-0
36-29
0-0
36-46
16-29
11-25
16-13
20-22
0-0
32-32
0-0
39-41
151.6Avg total
75.3Scored
76.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)80.977.5158.4+3.550%
Season at home (12)83.974.8158.7+9.267%
Season away (12)77.980.2158.1-2.233%
Last 10 (10)75.376.3151.6-1.030%
Last 5 (5)70.469.2139.6+1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)73.685.8159.4-12.220%
vs Similar (14)80.781.2161.9-0.536%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)84.270.0154.2+14.290%
This opponent (Western Michigan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -4.0-4.01st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: -3.9-3.92nd half: -2.8-2.8
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -4.0-4.01st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: -3.9-3.92nd half: -2.8-2.8
Western MichiganToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Western MichiganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toledo
#156
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A30/12
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A07/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H10/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H14/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A17/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
23-32
23
32
-9
H21/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H24/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A28/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
28-44
28
44
-16
A04/02
NCAA
Texas State
#125
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A07/02
NCAA
70.6Avg total
33.3Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.937.371.2-3.433%-
Last 30 at home (14)34.936.171.0-1.136%-
Last 30 away (16)33.038.471.4-5.431%-
Last 10 (10)33.337.370.6-4.020%-
Last 5 (5)28.235.663.8-7.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)31.339.470.6-8.116%-
vs Similar (8)35.534.169.6+1.462%-
vs Weaker (2)50.027.577.5+22.5100%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kent State
#52
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A16/01
NCAA
Valle de Egues
#28
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A17/01
Segunda FEB
UMass
#189
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A20/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H24/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A28/01
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
39-27
39
27
+12
H31/01
NCAA
Leonesa
#19
W
37-25
37
25
+12
H01/02
Segunda FEB
Kent State
#52
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H04/02
NCAA
Ponferrada
#14
L
27-54
27
54
-27
A07/02
Segunda FEB
James Madison
#169
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A07/02
NCAA
73.0Avg total
37.4Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.137.176.3+2.060%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.435.476.8+5.979%-
Last 30 away (16)37.238.675.8-1.444%-
Last 10 (10)37.435.673.0+1.860%-
Last 5 (5)34.233.467.6+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)37.045.882.8-8.840%-
vs Similar (14)38.236.774.9+1.557%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)40.534.374.8+6.270%-
This opponent (Western Michigan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Western Michigan wins
10
Toledo wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26ATexas State61-77
04/02/26AOhio71-91
28/01/26ANorthern Illinois65-85
24/01/26HCentral Michigan77-65
21/01/26HBowling Green54-72
17/01/26AAkron89-104
14/01/26HUMass82-85
10/01/26HEastern Michigan79-62
07/01/26AMiami (Ohio)76-87
30/12/25AToledo79-84
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26AJames Madison71-73
07/02/26APonferrada63-89
04/02/26HKent State72-75
01/02/26HLeonesa73-54
31/01/26HBall State73-55
28/01/26AAkron81-91
24/01/26HBowling Green73-72
20/01/26AUMass82-84
17/01/26AValle de Egues81-83
16/01/26AKent State84-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Western Michigan
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL35%
HomeWWLLW64%
AwayLLLLL8%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231112
Win %35%64%8%
Points / game74.678.970.7
Allowed / game79.671.886.8
Point differential-5.0+7.1-16.1
Avg total154.2150.7157.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%55%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)33% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Toledo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL50%
HomeLWWWL67%
AwayWLLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %50%67%33%
Points / game80.983.977.9
Allowed / game77.574.880.2
Point differential+3.5+9.2-2.2
Avg total158.4158.7158.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%42%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won30% (10)50% (4)17% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)24240100%92.774.3+18.4
2 Akron2419579%89.574.2+15.3
3 Kent State2416867%85.880.3+5.4
4 UMass25151060%80.675.8+4.8
5 Bowling Green24141058%83.071.0+12.1
6 Buffalo24141058%79.375.8+3.5
7 Ohio25131252%77.777.3+0.4
8 Toledo24121250%80.977.5+3.5
9 Eastern Michigan2491538%70.772.4-1.7
10 Northern Illinois2281436%73.076.4-3.3
11 Ball State2381535%66.970.1-3.3
12 Western Michigan2381535%74.679.6-5.0
13 Central Michigan2471729%73.478.6-5.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Western Michigan413879
Toledo504090
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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