Zalgiris Kaunas will host Bayern on 17 November 2026 in the EuroLeague, with the model favouring the home side at 70% versus 30% for the visitors. Zalgiris, 6-4 overall, averages 85.6 points and allows 82.3, while Bayern, 3-7 overall, averages 86.8 points and concedes 94.5, placing them 10th and 17th respectively. At home Zalgiris is 2-2, scoring 88.2 and giving up 85.8, and has won all five of its most recent games, including a 94-85 win over Juventus and an 83-67 victory over Besiktas. Bayern has a 3-3 road record, 87.0 points for and 95.0 against, and has won three of its last five outings, highlighted by a 99-95 win over Lyon-Villeurbanne. The teams split their ten prior meetings, with the last encounter ending 78-71 for Zalgiris. Pythia projects a 90-84 score, 173.1 total points, and a 41% chance that Zalgiris will cover the -8.5 line; the over on 168.5 points has a 60% probability, and a 5% chance of overtime. Bayern's recent 108-66 home win over Basketball Braunschweig shows they can still surprise on their home floor.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zalgiris Kaunas win
70.5%fair 1.42
Best odds1.24
Implied77.3%
Edge-6.8pp
Bayern win
29.5%fair 3.39
Best odds4.32
Implied22.7%
Edge+6.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:34 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 173 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 168.5.
Over/Under 163.5
Over 163.5
71.6%
@ 1.46+9.4pp
Under 163.5
28.4%
@ 2.40-9.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.40
Over/Under 168.5 · main line
Over 168.5
60.3%
@ 1.94+10.5pp
Under 168.5
39.7%
@ 1.92-10.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.83
Over/Under 173.5
Over 173.5
48.2%
@ 2.40+10.3pp
Under 173.5
51.8%
@ 1.46-10.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.46
📊 3. Team Totals
Zalgiris Kaunas total 84.5
Over 84.5
69.0%
Under 84.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalgiris Kaunas total 88.5 · main line
Over 88.5
54.1%
@ 1.81+4.1pp
Under 88.5
45.9%
@ 1.81-4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.81
Zalgiris Kaunas total 92.5
Over 92.5
38.6%
Under 92.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bayern total 75.5
Over 75.5
78.5%
Under 75.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bayern total 79.5 · main line
Over 79.5
65.0%
@ 1.75+13.5pp
Under 79.5
35.0%
@ 1.86-13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Under
1xBet
1.86
Bayern total 83.5
Over 83.5
49.4%
Under 83.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Zalgiris Kaunas's side (positive = Zalgiris Kaunas win). Pythia's expected margin is +6.0; Zalgiris Kaunas win by 1+ in 62% of simulations.
Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -11.5
ZAL -11.5
31.1%
@ 2.21-10.0pp
BAY +11.5
68.9%
@ 1.54+10.0pp
Best 5 market prices
ZAL
1xBet
2.21
BAY
1xBet
1.54
Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -8.5 · main line
ZAL -8.5
41.4%
@ 1.93-8.6pp
BAY +8.5
58.6%
@ 1.93+8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ZAL
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.83
Betfair
1.83
BAY
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -5.5
ZAL -5.5
52.7%
@ 1.54-6.2pp
BAY +5.5
47.3%
@ 2.21+6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
ZAL
1xBet
1.54
BAY
1xBet
2.21
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Zalgiris KaunasBayern
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 2nd half markets priced for this game yet.
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Zalgiris Kaunastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Zalgiris Kaunas: 78.7 points a game allowed
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
40.8
21.8
53.4%
55.2%
43.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
22.6
7.7
34.1%
35.7%
23.1
🏀Free throws
16.6
12.0
72.3%
77.1%
12.0
Their opponents take 63.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Bayerntheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Bayern: 86.9 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
35.3
20.3
57.5%
55.2%
40.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
28.9
10.5
36.3%
35.7%
31.5
🏀Free throws
19.3
14.8
76.7%
77.1%
14.8
Their opponents take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Zalgiris Kaunastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Zalgiris Kaunas: 78.0 points a game allowed
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.5 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.8 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
41.9
22.3
53.2%
55.2%
44.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
21.9
7.3
33.2%
35.7%
21.8
🏀Free throws
15.9
11.6
73.0%
77.1%
11.6
Their opponents take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Bayerntheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Bayern: 80.3 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.1 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
35.2
19.1
54.1%
55.2%
38.1
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
29.4
9.8
33.5%
35.7%
29.5
🏀Free throws
17.1
12.7
73.9%
77.1%
12.7
Their opponents take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Zalgiris Kaunas
WWWWWWWWWL
Bayern
LWWWLLLWLL
#8
League position
#18
+11.2
Net rating
+2.0
106.4
Offensive rating
101.7
95.2
Defensive rating
99.7
59.8%
Effective FG%
55.8%
52.6%
Opp. effective FG%
56.2%
16.4%
Turnover %
15.5%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.29
43.4%
3-point %
36.5%
69.0%
Assist %
66.1%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
40%
Profile
■ Zalgiris Kaunas■ Bayern
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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