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Aguada vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 19 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 105-111 (OT)
26-18 30-25 21-36 21-19 7-13
Position#1
Record12-4
FormWWWWL
Points / game86.6
Allowed / game79.2
vs
Position#3
Record13-2
FormLWWWW
Points / game92.7
Allowed / game81.5
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Aguada
Other2023-24
Meetings · Aguada v Nacional
28 May 2026
AGUA92
NACI91
21 May 2026
AGUA89
NACI109
25 Apr 2026
AGUA94
NACI98
20 Dec 2025
AGUA98
NACI94
30 May 2025
AGUA96
NACI97
25 May 2025
AGUA80
NACI72
19 May 2025
AGUA84
NACI75
13 Mar 2025
AGUA99
NACI81
13 Dec 2024
AGUA88
NACI90
21 May 2024
AGUA92
NACI87
14 May 2024
AGUA115
NACI101
23 Mar 2024
AGUA103
NACI89
18 Jan 2024
AGUA105
NACI111
12 Dec 2022
AGUA91
NACI71
19 Apr 2022
AGUA80
NACI65
06 Apr 2022
AGUA93
NACI72
17 Nov 2021
AGUA78
NACI58
10 Apr 2021
AGUA84
NACI80
12 Feb 2021
AGUA72
NACI85
01 Dec 2020
AGUA20
NACI0
24 Jan 2020
AGUA87
NACI67
03 May 2019
AGUA78
NACI86
25 Apr 2019
AGUA69
NACI75
11 Mar 2019
AGUA123
NACI117
18 Jan 2019
AGUA96
NACI90
04 May 2018
AGUA84
NACI77
26 Apr 2018
AGUA81
NACI91
19 Apr 2018
AGUA76
NACI81
26 Mar 2018
AGUA70
NACI68
10 Nov 2017
AGUA86
NACI78
16 Oct 2013
AGUA81
NACI61
28 Sep 2012
AGUA94
NACI86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Goes
#12
W
105-91
105
91
+14
103avg 82
H21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
87-85
87
85
+2
82avg 82
H24/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
79-84
79
84
-5
62avg 82
A28/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
91-58
91
58
+33
97avg 82
H01/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
94-81
94
81
+13
88avg 82
A05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
92-77
92
77
+15
90avg 82
H15/12
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
90-82
90
82
+8
88avg 82
A19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
78-75
78
75
+3
74avg 82
H05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
104-83
104
83
+21
105avg 82
A13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
87-88
87
88
-1
82avg 82
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-19
29-25
23-26
25-21
26-27
19-20
22-21
20-17
17-26
16-23
24-15
22-20
23-10
23-23
20-17
25-8
32-22
19-22
22-19
21-18
28-20
25-20
21-20
18-17
26-22
22-16
21-14
21-30
20-19
28-16
15-23
15-17
29-14
25-27
22-18
28-24
20-31
22-23
25-19
20-15
171.1Avg total
90.7Scored
80.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)86.679.2165.8+7.475%
Season at home (8)88.177.1165.2+11.0100%
Season away (8)85.181.2166.4+3.950%
Last 10 (10)90.780.4171.1+10.380%
Last 5 (5)90.281.0171.2+9.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (14)76.478.9155.2-2.543%
vs Weaker (16)88.479.2167.7+9.281%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Urupan
#9
W
91-78
91
78
+13
87avg 87
H24/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
L
94-101
94
101
-7
86avg 87
A27/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
99-91
99
91
+8
82avg 87
A09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
77-97
77
97
-20
70avg 87
H13/12
Liga Uruguaya
Sao Paulo
#6
W
89-84 OT
89
84
+5
89avg 87
A17/12
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#3
L
78-86
78
86
-8
72avg 87
A18/12
Champions League Americas
Malvin
#5
W
84-83
84
83
+1
79avg 87
A05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
94-82
94
82
+12
95avg 87
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
111-61
111
61
+50
111avg 87
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
99-79
99
79
+20
96avg 87
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-21
26-19
22-18
19-20
27-23
22-22
27-32
18-24
29-33
23-28
18-13
29-17
30-20
17-26
18-22
12-29
17-8
26-23
21-24
12-21
18-18
24-13
13-28
23-27
29-14
15-24
18-25
22-20
24-17
34-12
14-26
22-27
32-13
31-25
25-14
23-9
16-24
30-13
32-21
21-21
175.8Avg total
91.6Scored
84.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)92.781.5174.3+11.287%
Season at home (7)88.375.9164.1+12.486%
Season away (8)96.686.5183.1+10.188%
Last 10 (10)91.684.2175.8+7.470%
Last 5 (5)93.278.2171.4+15.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)77.881.3159.2-3.542%
vs Similar ◀ (8)83.083.1166.1-0.175%
vs Weaker (10)97.080.5177.5+16.590%
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +5.5+5.5Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +4.3+4.3Q3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +2.8+2.8Q4: -1.4-1.4
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +5.5+5.5Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +4.3+4.3Q3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +2.8+2.8Q4: -1.4-1.4
AguadaNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Goes
#12
W
57-44
57
44
+13
H21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
L
45-47
45
47
-2
H24/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A28/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H01/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
53-40
53
40
+13
H15/12
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
54-41
54
41
+13
A13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
42-54
42
54
-12
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
90.2Avg total
47.7Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.141.284.3+2.067%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.739.784.3+5.080%-
Last 30 away (15)41.642.784.3-1.153%-
Last 10 (10)47.742.590.2+5.270%-
Last 5 (5)49.041.690.6+7.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (14)39.840.580.3-0.764%-
vs Weaker (16)46.141.887.8+4.369%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Urupan
#9
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H24/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
49-45
49
45
+4
A27/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
L
52-61
52
61
-9
A09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H13/12
Liga Uruguaya
Sao Paulo
#6
W
43-31
43
31
+12
A17/12
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#3
W
42-31
42
31
+11
A18/12
Champions League Americas
Malvin
#5
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
58-29
58
29
+29
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
63-38
63
38
+25
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
89.0Avg total
49.4Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.541.185.6+3.460%-
Last 30 at home (13)45.841.687.5+4.262%-
Last 30 away (17)43.440.784.1+2.759%-
Last 10 (10)49.439.689.0+9.890%-
Last 5 (5)50.634.685.2+16.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)39.640.880.4-1.242%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)44.443.587.9+0.950%-
vs Weaker (10)50.439.589.9+10.990%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 87.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.620.2
55.2%
51.0%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.111.1
33.5%
33.3%33.3
🏀 Free throws17.513.6
77.7%
71.7%13.6
They take 69.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 90.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.321.5
53.3%
51.0%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.911.1
41.3%
33.3%33.3
🏀 Free throws20.614.5
70.4%
71.7%14.5
They take 67.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
LWWWWWWLWW
Nacional
WWWWLWLWLW
#1
League position
#3
+9.9
Net rating
+8.5
112.8
Offensive rating
115.5
102.9
Defensive rating
106.9
52.9%
Effective FG%
56.8%
50.6%
Opp. effective FG%
49.9%
13.9%
Turnover %
17.8%
26.7%
Off. rebound %
31.0%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.31
33.5%
3-point %
41.3%
67.7%
Assist %
65.0%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence112.8 · 115.5Defence102.9 · 106.9Shooting52.9% · 56.8%3-point %33.5% · 41.3%Ball care13.9% · 17.8%Off. rebounds26.7% · 31.0%Free throws0.25 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Aguada   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Aguada wins
4
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
18/11/23Nacional v Aguada77-68
31/01/23Nacional v Aguada87-67
12/12/22Aguada v Nacional91-71
20/04/22Aguada v Nacional80-65
15/04/22Nacional v Aguada85-80
10/04/22Nacional v Aguada84-61
07/04/22Aguada v Nacional93-72
12/02/22Nacional v Aguada86-99
18/11/21Aguada v Nacional78-58
11/04/21Aguada v Nacional84-80
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/01/24APenarol87-88
13/01/24ALarre Borges104-83
05/01/24HCordon78-75
19/12/23ATrouville90-82
15/12/23HDefensor92-77
05/12/23ABigua94-81
01/12/23HUrupan91-58
28/11/23AHebraica y Macabi79-84
24/11/23HMalvin87-85
21/11/23HGoes105-91
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/01/24ATrouville99-79
13/01/24HGoes111-61
10/01/24ALarre Borges94-82
05/01/24AMalvin84-83
18/12/23AQuimsa78-86
17/12/23ASao Paulo89-84 OT
13/12/23HPenarol77-97
09/12/23ADefensor99-91
27/11/23ABigua94-101
24/11/23HUrupan91-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL75%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game86.688.185.1
Allowed / game79.277.181.2
Point differential+7.4+11.0+3.9
Avg total165.8165.2166.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%50%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW87%
HomeWWWLW86%
AwayLWWWW88%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1578
Win %87%86%88%
Points / game92.788.396.6
Allowed / game81.575.986.5
Point differential+11.2+12.4+10.1
Avg total174.3164.1183.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%43%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol1513287%85.170.6+14.5
2 Nacional1513287%92.781.5+11.2
3 Aguada1612475%86.679.2+7.4
4 Defensor1610662%81.878.5+3.3
5 Hebraica y Macabi169756%82.179.6+2.5
6 Malvin178947%82.180.4+1.7
7 Bigua167944%84.385.6-1.2
8 Cordon1661038%72.676.1-3.6
9 Trouville1661038%80.686.4-5.8
10 Goes1651131%80.087.0-7.0
11 Urupan1751229%75.882.6-6.8
12 Larre Borges1621412%77.091.4-14.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Aguada263021217105
Nacional1825361913111
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