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Aguada vs Welcome Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 10 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 23:15
Final 112-82
39-17 27-26 22-25 24-14
Position#3
Record4-3
FormLWLWL
Points / game95.6
Allowed / game93.1
Aguada 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#12
Record0-7
FormLLLLL
Points / game82.0
Allowed / game100.7
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Aguada
Other2025-26
Meetings · Aguada v Welcome
10 Nov 2025
AGUA112
WELC82
04 Mar 2025
AGUA101
WELC72
28 Jan 2019
AGUA81
WELC67
16 Jan 2018
AGUA80
WELC77
15 Feb 2016
AGUA68
WELC72
12 Feb 2016
AGUA57
WELC77
14 Nov 2015
AGUA63
WELC71
18 Sep 2012
AGUA67
WELC76
12 Oct 2011
AGUA68
WELC64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Welcome winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Nacional
#1
L
98-103
98
103
-5
90avg 87
A28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
96-97
96
97
-1
92avg 87
H31/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
77-79
77
79
-2
60avg 87
A02/06
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
90-87
90
87
+3
80avg 87
A10/10
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
118-105
118
105
+13
122avg 87
H13/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
79-82
79
82
-3
73avg 87
A21/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
94-82
94
82
+12
92avg 87
H25/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
92-107
92
107
-15
84avg 87
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
107-86
107
86
+21
105avg 87
H04/11
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
89-103
89
103
-14
82avg 87
A08/11
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-33
26-21
20-24
31-25
36-35
24-18
27-18
9-26
17-18
16-22
20-15
24-24
17-23
29-18
22-25
22-21
24-22
35-22
27-27
32-34
26-28
28-22
11-20
14-12
25-22
29-23
21-21
19-16
18-20
19-26
30-30
25-31
22-27
29-20
33-20
23-19
21-20
24-29
26-25
18-29
187.1Avg total
94.0Scored
93.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)95.693.1188.7+2.457%
Season at home (3)106.391.0197.3+15.3100%
Season away (4)87.594.8182.2-7.225%
Last 10 (10)94.093.1187.1+0.940%
Last 5 (5)92.292.0184.2+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)86.887.1173.9-0.345%
vs Similar (4)96.294.2190.5+2.075%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)93.784.3177.9+9.480%
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WelcomeUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWelcome
Date
Competition
Trouville
#13
W
106-81
106
81
+25
107avg 71
A18/03
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
90-124
90
124
-34
78avg 71
A23/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
88-87
88
87
+1
84avg 71
A06/04
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
73-113
73
113
-40
60avg 71
A09/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
106-117
106
117
-11
92avg 71
H16/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
94-95
94
95
-1
92avg 71
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
68-84
68
84
-16
60avg 71
H23/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
L
81-98
81
98
-17
78avg 71
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
80-102
80
102
-22
68avg 71
H03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
72-96
72
96
-24
58avg 71
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-15
32-19
23-28
21-19
17-34
25-35
27-23
21-32
20-24
23-17
22-24
23-22
22-27
27-29
13-31
11-26
23-32
24-23
27-34
32-28
23-28
34-26
16-21
21-20
24-29
17-12
17-27
10-16
17-22
19-31
20-20
25-25
23-37
18-19
15-28
24-18
22-23
15-24
16-25
19-24
185.5Avg total
85.8Scored
99.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)82.0100.7182.7-18.70%
Season at home (3)84.7101.0185.7-16.30%
Season away (4)80.0100.5180.5-20.50%
Last 10 (10)85.899.7185.5-13.920%
Last 5 (5)79.095.0174.0-16.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)82.195.9178.0-13.827%
vs Similar (4)83.882.0165.8+1.850%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Aguada) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: -5.0-5.0Q2Q2: +3.8+3.8Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: -6.5-6.5Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -2.3-2.3
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: -5.0-5.0Q2Q2: +3.8+3.8Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: -6.5-6.5Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -2.3-2.3
AguadaWelcome
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nacional
#1
L
47-54
47
54
-7
A28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
60-53
60
53
+7
H31/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A02/06
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
46-41
46
41
+5
A10/10
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
59-44
59
44
+15
H13/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
54-50
54
50
+4
A21/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
54-45
54
45
+9
H25/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H04/11
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
45-49
45
49
-4
A08/11
Liga Uruguaya
95.5Avg total
48.6Scored
46.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.444.091.3+3.467%-
Last 30 at home (16)49.744.594.2+5.281%-
Last 30 away (14)44.743.488.1+1.450%-
Last 10 (10)48.646.995.5+1.760%-
Last 5 (5)48.247.495.6+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)46.744.491.1+2.455%-
vs Similar (4)47.242.589.8+4.875%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)47.944.191.9+3.873%-
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WelcomeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trouville
#13
W
62-34
62
34
+28
A18/03
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
42-69
42
69
-27
A23/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A06/04
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
49-56
49
56
-7
A09/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
47-55
47
55
-8
H16/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
57-54
57
54
+3
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H23/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
L
36-53
36
53
-17
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
41-56
41
56
-15
H03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
37-47
37
47
-10
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
96.1Avg total
45.5Scored
50.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.247.588.6-6.330%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.245.687.8-3.436%-
Last 30 away (16)40.249.189.4-8.925%-
Last 10 (10)45.550.696.1-5.130%-
Last 5 (5)42.450.292.6-7.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)40.748.889.5-8.023%-
vs Similar (4)44.039.083.0+5.075%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Aguada) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 92.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.920.7
51.9%
53.3%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.310.8
36.9%
33.3%32.4
🏀 Free throws24.219.0
78.5%
70.9%19.0
They take 69.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Welcometheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Welcome: 84.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.220.0
53.8%
53.3%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.89.7
34.9%
33.3%29.1
🏀 Free throws20.715.3
73.9%
70.9%15.3
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
LWLWLWWLLL
Welcome
LLLLLLLWLW
#3
League position
#12
+0.6
Net rating
-18.3
116.6
Offensive rating
104.5
115.9
Defensive rating
122.8
53.3%
Effective FG%
53.2%
55.0%
Opp. effective FG%
56.1%
16.3%
Turnover %
16.0%
34.0%
Off. rebound %
18.1%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.32
36.9%
3-point %
34.9%
66.0%
Assist %
66.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence116.6 · 104.5Defence115.9 · 122.8Shooting53.3% · 53.2%3-point %36.9% · 34.9%Ball care16.3% · 16.0%Off. rebounds34.0% · 18.1%Free throws0.35 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)40% · 20%
■ Aguada   ■ Welcome
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Aguada wins
3
Welcome wins
DateGameScore
04/03/25Aguada v Welcome101-72
06/01/25Welcome v Aguada74-104
28/01/19Aguada v Welcome81-67
16/11/18Welcome v Aguada90-97
12/03/18Welcome v Aguada83-85
17/01/18Aguada v Welcome80-77
28/10/17Welcome v Aguada96-80
05/12/16Welcome v Aguada0-20
16/02/16Aguada v Welcome68-72
13/02/16Aguada v Welcome57-77
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/25APenarol89-103
04/11/25HCordon107-86
29/10/25AUnion Atletica92-107
25/10/25HMalvin94-82
21/10/25ANacional79-82
13/10/25HUrunday118-105
10/10/25ABigua90-87
02/06/25ANacional77-79
31/05/25HNacional96-97
28/05/25ANacional98-103
Welcomelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/25AHebraica y Macabi72-96
03/11/25HPenarol80-102
29/10/25ACordon81-98
23/10/25HUnion Atletica68-84
20/10/25AMalvin94-95
16/10/25HNacional106-117
09/10/25AUrunday73-113
06/04/25AUrupan88-87
23/03/25ABigua90-124
18/03/25ATrouville106-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL57%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %57%100%25%
Points / game95.6106.387.5
Allowed / game93.191.094.8
Point differential+2.4+15.3-7.2
Avg total188.7197.3182.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Welcome
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLL0%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game82.084.780.0
Allowed / game100.7101.0100.5
Point differential-18.7-16.3-20.5
Avg total182.7185.7180.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol76186%88.171.4+16.7
2 Nacional76186%93.983.1+10.7
3 Hebraica y Macabi75271%79.775.7+4.0
4 Malvin75271%86.785.7+1.0
5 Aguada74357%95.693.1+2.4
6 Defensor74357%85.686.3-0.7
7 Urunday73443%91.491.0+0.4
8 Union Atletica73443%81.681.6+0.0
9 Bigua73443%87.489.1-1.7
10 Cordon72529%85.692.0-6.4
11 Goes71614%82.390.0-7.7
12 Welcome7070%82.0100.7-18.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aguada39272224112
Welcome1726251482
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