PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Welcome vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 16 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 106-117
23-32 24-23 27-34 32-28
Position#12
Record0-1
FormWWLWL
Points / game73.0
Allowed / game113.0
Welcome
Uruguay
vs
Nacional 🏆
Uruguay
Position#2
Record0-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game62.0
Allowed / game87.0
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Gimnasio Óscar Magurno
Other2025-26
Meetings · Welcome v Nacional
16 Oct 2025
WELC106
NACI117
30 Jan 2025
WELC69
NACI117
16 Oct 2018
WELC73
NACI75
16 Apr 2018
WELC68
NACI70
09 Apr 2018
WELC79
NACI85
02 Apr 2018
WELC85
NACI67
05 Oct 2017
WELC81
NACI74
26 Nov 2012
WELC81
NACI71
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Welcome winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

WelcomeUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWelcome
Date
Competition
Penarol
#3
L
59-88
59
88
-29
49avg 69
A12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
99-88
99
88
+11
94avg 69
H27/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
72-101
72
101
-29
58avg 69
A04/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
L
81-87
81
87
-6
66avg 69
A09/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
97-90
97
90
+7
89avg 69
H12/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
85-77
85
77
+8
70avg 69
H15/03
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
106-81
106
81
+25
107avg 69
A18/03
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
90-124
90
124
-34
78avg 69
A23/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
88-87
88
87
+1
84avg 69
A06/04
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
73-113
73
113
-40
60avg 69
A09/10
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-22
13-23
13-21
24-22
21-21
20-32
26-18
32-17
21-25
19-34
17-28
15-14
18-25
26-20
20-21
17-21
23-24
27-20
19-20
28-26
27-21
14-22
20-19
24-15
30-15
32-19
23-28
21-19
17-34
25-35
27-23
21-32
20-24
23-17
22-24
23-22
22-27
27-29
13-31
11-26
178.6Avg total
85.0Scored
93.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)73.0113.0186.0-40.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)73.0113.0186.0-40.00%
Last 10 (10)85.093.6178.6-8.650%
Last 5 (5)88.496.4184.8-8.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)79.395.8175.1-16.526%
vs Similar (3)84.776.7161.3+8.067%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Defensor
#5
W
90-82
90
82
+8
72avg 83
H06/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
85-80
85
80
+5
71avg 83
A09/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
102-77
102
77
+25
88avg 83
H17/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
75-84
75
84
-9
58avg 83
A20/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
73-82
73
82
-9
65avg 83
H23/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
72-80
72
80
-8
60avg 83
A26/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
103-98
103
98
+5
96avg 83
H28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
97-96
97
96
+1
86avg 83
A31/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
79-77
79
77
+2
72avg 83
H02/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
62-87
62
87
-25
43avg 83
H14/10
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-20
26-15
23-22
20-25
15-23
27-16
16-25
27-16
23-25
26-13
23-23
30-16
22-23
12-21
15-16
26-24
14-20
25-25
18-17
16-20
22-13
22-22
18-21
10-24
33-21
21-26
24-20
25-31
35-36
18-24
18-27
26-9
18-17
22-16
15-20
24-24
13-17
17-26
15-20
17-24
168.1Avg total
83.8Scored
84.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)62.087.0149.0-25.00%
Season at home (1)62.087.0149.0-25.00%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)83.884.3168.1-0.560%
Last 5 (5)82.687.6170.2-5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)62.087.0149.0-25.00%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (29)91.079.1170.1+12.072%
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +0.8+0.8
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +0.8+0.8
WelcomeNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
WelcomeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Penarol
#3
L
22-45
22
45
-23
A12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
L
41-53
41
53
-12
H27/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
40-59
40
59
-19
A04/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A09/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
50-44
50
44
+6
H12/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
L
41-43
41
43
-2
H15/03
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
62-34
62
34
+28
A18/03
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
42-69
42
69
-27
A23/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A06/04
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
49-56
49
56
-7
A09/10
Liga Uruguaya
92.3Avg total
43.4Scored
48.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.948.287.1-9.327%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.345.584.8-6.236%-
Last 30 away (16)38.650.689.2-12.119%-
Last 10 (10)43.448.992.3-5.530%-
Last 5 (5)47.448.696.0-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)38.049.887.8-11.719%-
vs Similar (3)46.734.381.0+12.3100%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Defensor
#5
W
47-35
47
35
+12
H06/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A09/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H17/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A20/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
39-45
39
45
-6
H23/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
44-35
44
35
+9
A26/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
53-60
53
60
-7
A31/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H02/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H14/10
Liga Uruguaya
85.1Avg total
43.2Scored
41.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.440.686.0+4.963%-
Last 30 at home (18)44.539.483.9+5.167%-
Last 30 away (12)46.842.289.1+4.658%-
Last 10 (10)43.241.985.1+1.360%-
Last 5 (5)44.243.687.8+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)30.043.073.0-13.00%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (29)46.040.586.4+5.566%-
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Welcometheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Welcome: 82.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.921.3
52.1%
53.3%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.58.0
32.7%
33.3%24.0
🏀 Free throws20.816.2
77.9%
70.9%16.2
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 83.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.621.4
49.1%
53.3%42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.18.7
29.9%
33.3%26.1
🏀 Free throws19.714.1
71.6%
70.9%14.1
They take 72.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Welcome
LWLWWWLLWL
Nacional
LWWWLLLWWW
#12
League position
#2
-12.8
Net rating
-0.5
106.0
Offensive rating
108.8
118.7
Defensive rating
109.3
50.9%
Effective FG%
47.4%
56.1%
Opp. effective FG%
50.7%
15.3%
Turnover %
14.5%
22.4%
Off. rebound %
37.0%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.27
32.7%
3-point %
29.9%
52.6%
Assist %
49.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence106.0 · 108.8Defence118.7 · 109.3Shooting50.9% · 47.4%3-point %32.7% · 29.9%Ball care15.3% · 14.5%Off. rebounds22.4% · 37.0%Free throws0.32 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Welcome   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Welcome wins
7
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
30/01/25Welcome v Nacional69-117
01/11/24Nacional v Welcome115-64
04/01/19Nacional v Welcome104-85
16/10/18Welcome v Nacional73-75
17/04/18Welcome v Nacional68-70
12/04/18Nacional v Welcome75-89
09/04/18Welcome v Nacional79-85
05/04/18Nacional v Welcome80-77
02/04/18Welcome v Nacional85-67
06/03/18Nacional v Welcome88-96 OT
Welcomelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/10/25AUrunday73-113
06/04/25AUrupan88-87
23/03/25ABigua90-124
18/03/25ATrouville106-81
15/03/25HUrupan85-77
12/03/25HUrunday97-90
09/03/25AHebraica y Macabi81-87
04/03/25AAguada72-101
27/02/25HUrupan99-88
12/02/25APenarol59-88
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/10/25HPenarol62-87
02/06/25HAguada79-77
31/05/25AAguada97-96
28/05/25HAguada103-98
26/05/25AAguada72-80
23/05/25HAguada73-82
20/05/25AAguada75-84
17/05/25HAguada102-77
09/05/25ADefensor85-80
06/05/25HDefensor90-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Welcome
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
Home--
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %0%-0%
Points / game73.0-73.0
Allowed / game113.0-113.0
Point differential-40.0--40.0
Avg total186.0-186.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
HomeL0%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %0%0%-
Points / game62.062.0-
Allowed / game87.087.0-
Point differential-25.0-25.0-
Avg total149.0149.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol110100%87.062.0+25.0
2 Defensor220100%100.087.5+12.5
3 Aguada220100%104.096.0+8.0
4 Malvin110100%85.078.0+7.0
5 Urunday21150%109.095.5+13.5
6 Union Atletica21150%92.584.0+8.5
7 Bigua21150%88.086.0+2.0
8 Hebraica y Macabi21150%84.089.5-5.5
9 Goes2020%86.595.5-9.0
10 Cordon2020%81.094.5-13.5
11 Nacional1010%62.087.0-25.0
12 Welcome1010%73.0113.0-40.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Welcome23242732106
Nacional32233428117
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.