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Aguada vs Welcome Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 04 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 23:15
Final 101-72
25-21 34-19 28-17 14-15
Position#2
Record17-4
FormWWWWW
Points / game89.1
Allowed / game80.2
Aguada 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Welcome
Uruguay
Position#12
Record5-16
FormLWLLW
Points / game77.4
Allowed / game93.8
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Aguada
Other2024-25
Meetings · Aguada v Welcome
10 Nov 2025
AGUA112
WELC82
04 Mar 2025
AGUA101
WELC72
28 Jan 2019
AGUA81
WELC67
16 Jan 2018
AGUA80
WELC77
15 Feb 2016
AGUA68
WELC72
12 Feb 2016
AGUA57
WELC77
14 Nov 2015
AGUA63
WELC71
18 Sep 2012
AGUA67
WELC76
12 Oct 2011
AGUA68
WELC64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Welcome winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Defensor
#5
W
89-85
89
85
+4
87avg 86
A11/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
W
77-69
77
69
+8
72avg 86
H15/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
91-78
91
78
+13
94avg 86
H17/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
L
88-96
88
96
-8
72avg 86
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
95-81
95
81
+14
102avg 86
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
98-86
98
86
+12
98avg 86
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
95-86
95
86
+9
98avg 86
H04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
71-70
71
70
+1
59avg 86
H07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
94-91
94
91
+3
90avg 86
A13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
77-75
77
75
+2
69avg 86
A27/02
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-20
28-14
25-23
21-28
19-10
16-22
21-23
21-14
30-20
19-22
17-20
25-16
23-21
19-15
20-31
26-29
26-22
25-23
20-17
24-19
27-20
31-28
13-15
27-23
34-26
16-24
24-20
21-16
27-20
13-16
17-14
14-20
22-19
36-20
15-26
21-26
22-15
19-12
13-17
23-31
169.2Avg total
87.5Scored
81.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)89.180.2169.3+9.081%
Season at home (10)89.879.2169.0+10.690%
Season away (11)88.581.1169.6+7.573%
Last 10 (10)87.581.7169.2+5.890%
Last 5 (5)87.081.6168.6+5.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)91.090.5181.5+0.550%
vs Similar (11)87.683.5171.1+4.273%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)90.479.3169.6+11.188%
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WelcomeUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWelcome
Date
Competition
Cordon
#9
W
84-81
84
81
+3
74avg 66
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
97-86 OT
97
86
+11
86avg 66
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
82-87
82
87
-5
75avg 66
H21/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
88-83
88
83
+5
74avg 66
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
70-97
70
97
-27
60avg 66
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
69-117
69
117
-48
53avg 66
H30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
71-66
71
66
+5
63avg 66
H04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
77-112
77
112
-35
70avg 66
A08/02
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
L
59-88
59
88
-29
49avg 66
A12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
99-88
99
88
+11
94avg 66
H27/02
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-23
20-12
21-21
24-25
8-26
23-23
26-19
24-13
17-22
26-26
19-19
20-20
16-25
19-26
28-17
25-15
13-31
22-23
22-24
13-19
21-28
23-29
13-30
12-30
19-15
20-19
11-15
21-17
17-29
23-23
22-30
15-30
9-22
13-23
13-21
24-22
21-21
20-32
26-18
32-17
170.1Avg total
79.6Scored
90.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)77.493.8171.2-16.324%
Season at home (11)78.592.6171.2-14.127%
Season away (10)76.295.0171.2-18.820%
Last 10 (10)79.690.5170.1-10.950%
Last 5 (5)75.094.2169.2-19.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)78.193.4171.6-15.319%
vs Similar (2)74.074.5148.5-0.550%
vs Weaker (1)100.091.0191.0+9.0100%
This opponent (Aguada) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +5.2+5.2Q1: -8.2-8.2Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +0.2+0.2
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +5.2+5.2Q1: -8.2-8.2Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +0.2+0.2
AguadaWelcome
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Defensor
#5
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A11/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H15/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H17/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
51-45
51
45
+6
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
58-48
58
48
+10
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
D
50-50
50
50
+0
H04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
58-39
58
39
+19
A13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
41-27
41
27
+14
A27/02
Liga Uruguaya
85.6Avg total
46.7Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.340.887.1+5.580%-
Last 30 at home (14)48.642.190.7+6.693%-
Last 30 away (16)44.339.784.0+4.669%-
Last 10 (10)46.738.985.6+7.890%-
Last 5 (5)49.440.089.4+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)54.038.592.5+15.5100%-
vs Similar (11)45.242.888.0+2.473%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)46.239.885.9+6.482%-
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WelcomeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cordon
#9
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
L
31-49
31
49
-18
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H21/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
L
35-51
35
51
-16
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
35-54
35
54
-19
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
44-57
44
57
-13
H30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
40-52
40
52
-12
A08/02
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
L
22-45
22
45
-23
A12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
L
41-53
41
53
-12
H27/02
Liga Uruguaya
84.7Avg total
36.9Scored
47.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.746.983.6-10.120%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.244.682.8-6.431%-
Last 30 away (14)35.149.584.6-14.47%-
Last 10 (10)36.947.884.7-10.920%-
Last 5 (5)37.248.285.4-11.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)36.347.784.0-11.415%-
vs Similar (2)39.034.573.5+4.5100%-
vs Weaker (1)44.049.093.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 86.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.322.3
56.7%
51.5%44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.99.1
31.5%
33.0%27.3
🏀 Free throws19.714.8
75.1%
71.7%14.8
They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Welcometheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Welcome: 78.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.019.1
49.0%
51.5%38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.98.9
33.1%
33.0%26.7
🏀 Free throws20.013.9
69.5%
71.7%13.9
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
WWWWWWLWWW
Welcome
WLLWLLWLWW
#2
League position
#12
+7.6
Net rating
-13.4
110.4
Offensive rating
98.7
102.7
Defensive rating
112.1
52.7%
Effective FG%
49.2%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
55.3%
16.1%
Turnover %
18.9%
29.8%
Off. rebound %
24.8%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.30
31.5%
3-point %
33.1%
65.6%
Assist %
60.4%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence110.4 · 98.7Defence102.7 · 112.1Shooting52.7% · 49.2%3-point %31.5% · 33.1%Ball care16.1% · 18.9%Off. rebounds29.8% · 24.8%Free throws0.29 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)90% · 50%
■ Aguada   ■ Welcome
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Aguada wins
3
Welcome wins
DateGameScore
06/01/25Welcome v Aguada74-104
28/01/19Aguada v Welcome81-67
16/11/18Welcome v Aguada90-97
12/03/18Welcome v Aguada83-85
17/01/18Aguada v Welcome80-77
28/10/17Welcome v Aguada96-80
05/12/16Welcome v Aguada0-20
16/02/16Aguada v Welcome68-72
13/02/16Aguada v Welcome57-77
11/02/16Welcome v Aguada86-89
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/25ATrouville77-75
13/02/25ANacional94-91
07/02/25HMalvin71-70
04/02/25HHebraica y Macabi95-86
31/01/25HUrunday98-86
28/01/25ABigua95-81
24/01/25ACordon88-96
17/01/25HUrupan91-78
15/01/25HPenarol77-69
11/01/25ADefensor89-85
Welcomelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/25HUrupan99-88
12/02/25APenarol59-88
08/02/25ADefensor77-112
04/02/25HTrouville71-66
30/01/25HNacional69-117
27/01/25AMalvin70-97
24/01/25AHebraica y Macabi88-83
21/01/25HBigua82-87
16/01/25AUrunday97-86 OT
10/01/25HCordon84-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW81%
HomeWWWWW90%
AwayWLWWW73%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211011
Win %81%90%73%
Points / game89.189.888.5
Allowed / game80.279.281.1
Point differential+9.0+10.6+7.5
Avg total169.3169.0169.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+52%60%45%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)50% (2)100% (3)
Overtime %5%0%9%
Welcome
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW24%
HomeWLLWW27%
AwayWWLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211110
Win %24%27%20%
Points / game77.478.576.2
Allowed / game93.892.695.0
Point differential-16.3-14.1-18.8
Avg total171.2171.2171.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%9%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)67% (3)100% (1)
Overtime %10%9%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional2119290%94.077.5+16.5
2 Aguada2117481%89.180.2+9.0
3 Penarol2116576%84.874.0+10.7
4 Malvin2114767%80.475.8+4.6
5 Defensor21111052%87.482.2+5.2
6 Bigua2191243%84.385.6-1.3
7 Hebraica y Macabi2191243%85.888.2-2.5
8 Cordon2191243%83.686.4-2.8
9 Urunday2171433%79.385.8-6.4
10 Urupan2161529%80.587.6-7.1
11 Welcome2151624%77.493.8-16.3
12 Trouville2141719%74.183.6-9.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aguada25342814101
Welcome2119171572
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