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Welcome vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 03 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 23:15
Final 80-102
23-37 18-19 15-28 24-18
Position#12
Record0-5
FormLLLLL
Points / game84.4
Allowed / game101.4
vs
Penarol 🏆
Uruguay
Position#1
Record4-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game82.4
Allowed / game66.2
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Gimnasio Óscar Magurno
Other2025-26
Meetings · Welcome v Penarol
03 Nov 2025
WELC80
PENA102
11 Dec 2024
WELC66
PENA91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Welcome winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

WelcomeUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWelcome
Date
Competition
Urunday
#8
W
97-90
97
90
+7
89avg 72
H12/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
85-77
85
77
+8
70avg 72
H15/03
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
106-81
106
81
+25
107avg 72
A18/03
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
90-124
90
124
-34
78avg 72
A23/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
88-87
88
87
+1
84avg 72
A06/04
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
73-113
73
113
-40
60avg 72
A09/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
106-117
106
117
-11
92avg 72
H16/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
94-95
94
95
-1
92avg 72
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
68-84
68
84
-16
60avg 72
H23/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
L
81-98
81
98
-17
78avg 72
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-24
27-20
19-20
28-26
27-21
14-22
20-19
24-15
30-15
32-19
23-28
21-19
17-34
25-35
27-23
21-32
20-24
23-17
22-24
23-22
22-27
27-29
13-31
11-26
23-32
24-23
27-34
32-28
23-28
34-26
16-21
21-20
24-29
17-12
17-27
10-16
17-22
19-31
20-20
25-25
185.4Avg total
88.8Scored
96.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)84.4101.4185.8-17.00%
Season at home (2)87.0100.5187.5-13.50%
Season away (3)82.7102.0184.7-19.30%
Last 10 (10)88.896.6185.4-7.840%
Last 5 (5)84.4101.4185.8-17.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)81.795.6177.3-13.927%
vs Similar (4)83.882.0165.8+1.850%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Defensor
#5
W
76-71
76
71
+5
70avg 80
H08/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
78-73
78
73
+5
74avg 80
A13/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
76-95
76
95
-19
75avg 80
H17/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
93-96 OT
93
96
-3
87avg 80
A21/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
78-84
78
84
-6
70avg 80
H25/04
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
87-62
87
62
+25
82avg 80
A14/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
89-79
89
79
+10
81avg 80
H17/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
90-59
90
59
+31
95avg 80
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
102-83
102
83
+19
101avg 80
H23/10
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
44-48
44
48
-4
38avg 80
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-16
17-22
16-16
19-17
8-27
32-10
16-15
22-21
16-18
20-14
14-31
26-32
22-20
21-23
17-14
15-18
17-27
23-17
21-19
17-21
17-13
26-17
20-15
24-17
22-25
21-20
26-22
20-12
22-20
26-16
18-15
24-8
30-9
24-24
29-24
19-26
26-21
18-27
–
–
156.3Avg total
81.3Scored
75.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)82.466.2148.6+16.280%
Season at home (2)95.581.0176.5+14.5100%
Season away (3)73.756.3130.0+17.367%
Last 10 (10)81.375.0156.3+6.360%
Last 5 (5)82.466.2148.6+16.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)78.589.5168.0-11.00%
vs Similar (4)77.076.2153.2+0.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)85.974.0159.9+11.983%
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: +3.8+3.8Q3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +1.6+1.6
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: +3.8+3.8Q3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +1.6+1.6
WelcomePenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
WelcomeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Urunday
#8
W
50-44
50
44
+6
H12/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
L
41-43
41
43
-2
H15/03
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
62-34
62
34
+28
A18/03
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
42-69
42
69
-27
A23/03
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A06/04
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
49-56
49
56
-7
A09/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
47-55
47
55
-8
H16/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
57-54
57
54
+3
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H23/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
L
36-53
36
53
-17
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
95.8Avg total
46.8Scored
49.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.247.687.8-7.530%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.946.085.9-6.133%-
Last 30 away (15)40.549.389.7-8.827%-
Last 10 (10)46.849.095.8-2.240%-
Last 5 (5)46.051.897.8-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)39.649.088.5-9.423%-
vs Similar (4)44.039.083.0+5.075%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Defensor
#5
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H08/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A13/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H17/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A21/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H25/04
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
43-30
43
30
+13
A14/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H17/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
54-33
54
33
+21
H23/10
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
44-48
44
48
-4
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
81.8Avg total
43.2Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.138.281.3+4.963%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.038.578.5+1.547%-
Last 30 away (15)46.237.984.1+8.380%-
Last 10 (10)43.238.681.8+4.660%-
Last 5 (5)46.438.484.8+8.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)41.545.086.5-3.550%-
vs Similar (4)34.037.071.0-3.025%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)44.837.982.6+6.971%-
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Welcometheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Welcome: 86.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.621.8
55.1%
53.3%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.89.2
35.7%
33.3%27.6
🏀 Free throws20.515.6
76.1%
70.9%15.6
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 80.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.718.6
55.2%
53.3%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.89.2
33.1%
33.3%27.6
🏀 Free throws22.315.6
70.0%
70.9%15.6
They take 61.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Welcome
LLLLLWLWWW
Penarol
LWWWWLLLWW
#12
League position
#1
-11.2
Net rating
+8.1
110.4
Offensive rating
108.9
121.6
Defensive rating
100.8
54.4%
Effective FG%
52.7%
56.6%
Opp. effective FG%
48.8%
14.7%
Turnover %
17.0%
20.5%
Off. rebound %
29.5%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.36
35.7%
3-point %
33.1%
56.8%
Assist %
72.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence110.4 · 108.9Defence121.6 · 100.8Shooting54.4% · 52.7%3-point %35.7% · 33.1%Ball care14.7% · 17.0%Off. rebounds20.5% · 29.5%Free throws0.31 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Welcome   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Welcome wins
2
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
12/02/25Penarol v Welcome88-59
11/12/24Welcome v Penarol66-91
Welcomelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/25ACordon81-98
23/10/25HUnion Atletica68-84
20/10/25AMalvin94-95
16/10/25HNacional106-117
09/10/25AUrunday73-113
06/04/25AUrupan88-87
23/03/25ABigua90-124
18/03/25ATrouville106-81
15/03/25HUrupan85-77
12/03/25HUrunday97-90
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/25AHebraica y Macabi44-48
23/10/25HCordon102-83
20/10/25AUnion Atletica90-59
17/10/25HMalvin89-79
14/10/25ANacional87-62
25/04/25HDefensor78-84
21/04/25ADefensor93-96 OT
17/04/25HDefensor76-95
13/04/25ADefensor78-73
08/04/25HDefensor76-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Welcome
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLL0%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game84.487.082.7
Allowed / game101.4100.5102.0
Point differential-17.0-13.5-19.3
Avg total185.8187.5184.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL80%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game82.495.573.7
Allowed / game66.281.056.3
Point differential+16.2+14.5+17.3
Avg total148.6176.5130.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+80%100%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol54180%82.466.2+16.2
2 Nacional54180%88.683.8+4.8
3 Urunday53260%99.088.2+10.8
4 Union Atletica53260%87.083.6+3.4
5 Aguada53260%94.692.6+2.0
6 Defensor53260%89.687.6+2.0
7 Bigua53260%86.084.8+1.2
8 Malvin53260%85.087.0-2.0
9 Hebraica y Macabi53260%74.076.6-2.6
10 Cordon51420%83.890.4-6.6
11 Goes5050%82.694.8-12.2
12 Welcome5050%84.4101.4-17.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Welcome2318152480
Penarol37192818102
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