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Breogan vs Karsiyaka Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 10 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 80-73
24-23 16-18 21-21 19-11
Position#29
Record3-4
FormWLLLW
Points / game78.1
Allowed / game78.3
Breogan 🏆
vs
Position#27
Record4-3
FormLWLWL
Points / game83.4
Allowed / game81.7
EuropeChampions LeagueChampions League - Final· Pazo dos Deportes
European cup2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Breogan winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Karsiyaka winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BreoganLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBreogan
Date
Competition
Basket Zaragoza
#12
W
82-77
82
77
+5
77avg 64
H26/11
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
L
58-91
58
91
-33
38avg 64
A03/12
ACB
Bursaspor
#24
L
65-77
65
77
-12
56avg 64
A06/12
Champions League
Bilbao
#13
W
76-68
76
68
+8
72avg 64
A09/12
ACB
Murcia
#6
L
74-83
74
83
-9
67avg 64
H17/12
ACB
Bonn
#9
W
97-92 OT
97
92
+5
94avg 64
H20/12
Champions League
Obradoiro CAB
#15
L
88-90
88
90
-2
80avg 64
H23/12
ACB
Gran Canaria
#7
L
60-86
60
86
-26
47avg 64
A30/12
ACB
Karsiyaka
#27
L
85-89
85
89
-4
89avg 64
A03/01
Champions League
Granada
#17
W
85-79
85
79
+6
81avg 64
H07/01
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-23
18-17
18-17
30-20
19-17
9-24
12-27
18-23
15-19
15-22
11-18
24-18
13-22
18-12
18-19
27-15
16-31
18-15
18-14
22-23
21-19
15-20
21-17
23-24
22-23
18-23
24-20
24-24
10-22
25-28
9-23
16-13
20-24
19-28
23-21
23-16
25-13
27-27
14-24
19-15
160.2Avg total
77.0Scored
83.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)78.178.3156.4-0.143%
Season at home (3)82.370.7153.0+11.7100%
Season away (4)75.084.0159.0-9.00%
Last 10 (10)77.083.2160.2-6.240%
Last 5 (5)83.087.2170.2-4.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)68.784.5153.2-15.80%
vs Similar ◀ (17)79.680.0159.6-0.447%
vs Weaker (3)64.066.3130.3-2.333%
This opponent (Karsiyaka) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KarsiyakaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKarsiyaka
Date
Competition
Strasbourg
#11
W
87-72
87
72
+15
82avg 84
H28/11
Champions League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#12
W
93-85
93
85
+8
87avg 84
A01/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Galatasaray
#5
W
98-76
98
76
+22
no box
H09/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Oldenburg
#36
L
88-97
88
97
-9
84avg 84
A13/12
Champions League
Samsunspor
#16
W
82-80
82
80
+2
83avg 84
A16/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Oostende
#30
L
76-78
76
78
-2
73avg 84
A19/12
Champions League
Tofas
#11
W
98-71
98
71
+27
103avg 84
H24/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Merkezefendi
#14
L
94-107
94
107
-13
93avg 84
A29/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Breogan
#29
W
89-85
89
85
+4
82avg 84
H03/01
Champions League
Manisa
#6
L
87-91
87
91
-4
85avg 84
H06/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-18
20-11
31-22
16-21
22-22
28-27
22-22
21-14
22-24
26-16
25-19
25-17
27-25
31-21
11-25
19-26
22-12
18-18
13-14
29-36
14-12
19-16
25-28
18-22
26-19
17-14
22-17
33-21
26-17
25-30
20-31
23-29
24-20
28-19
21-23
16-23
16-14
19-26
33-21
19-30
173.4Avg total
89.2Scored
84.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)83.481.7165.1+1.757%
Season at home (4)88.879.2168.0+9.5100%
Season away (3)76.385.0161.3-8.70%
Last 10 (10)89.284.2173.4+5.060%
Last 5 (5)88.886.4175.2+2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)83.584.9168.4-1.450%
vs Similar ◀ (11)85.982.8168.7+3.164%
vs Weaker (11)89.782.6172.4+7.164%
This opponent (Breogan) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.6-3.6Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: -3.4-3.4Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +3.5+3.5Q4: -2.0-2.0
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.6-3.6Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: -3.4-3.4Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +3.5+3.5Q4: -2.0-2.0
BreoganKarsiyaka
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BreoganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Basket Zaragoza
#12
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H26/11
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
L
28-41
28
41
-13
A03/12
ACB
Bursaspor
#24
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A06/12
Champions League
Bilbao
#13
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A09/12
ACB
Murcia
#6
L
34-46
34
46
-12
H17/12
ACB
Bonn
#9
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H20/12
Champions League
Obradoiro CAB
#15
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H23/12
ACB
Gran Canaria
#7
L
35-50
35
50
-15
A30/12
ACB
Karsiyaka
#27
L
39-52
39
52
-13
A03/01
Champions League
Granada
#17
W
52-40
52
40
+12
H07/01
ACB
78.8Avg total
35.9Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.039.674.7-4.623%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.937.874.6-0.936%-
Last 30 away (16)33.441.274.7-7.812%-
Last 10 (10)35.942.978.8-7.010%-
Last 5 (5)40.445.485.8-5.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)31.540.772.2-9.20%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)38.040.278.2-2.235%-
vs Weaker (3)30.033.063.0-3.033%-
This opponent (Karsiyaka) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KarsiyakaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Strasbourg
#11
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H28/11
Champions League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#12
W
50-49
50
49
+1
A01/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Galatasaray
#5
W
48-40
48
40
+8
H09/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Oldenburg
#36
W
58-46
58
46
+12
A13/12
Champions League
Samsunspor
#16
W
40-30
40
30
+10
A16/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Oostende
#30
W
33-28
33
28
+5
A19/12
Champions League
Tofas
#11
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H24/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Merkezefendi
#14
W
51-47
51
47
+4
A29/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Breogan
#29
W
52-39
52
39
+13
H03/01
Champions League
Manisa
#6
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H06/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
83.1Avg total
45.0Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.239.984.1+4.377%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.338.583.7+6.887%-
Last 30 away (15)43.241.384.5+1.967%-
Last 10 (10)45.038.183.1+6.990%-
Last 5 (5)42.837.480.2+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)42.142.584.6-0.462%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)45.139.484.5+5.782%-
vs Weaker (11)44.938.583.5+6.482%-
This opponent (Breogan) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Breogantheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Breogan: 76.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.5 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.018.8
53.7%
51.4%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.27.3
27.9%
34.9%21.9
🏀 Free throws21.917.1
78.1%
74.5%17.1
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Karsiyakatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Karsiyaka: 88.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.5 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.418.0
53.9%
51.4%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.711.7
45.5%
34.9%35.1
🏀 Free throws22.317.1
76.7%
74.5%17.1
They take 59.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Breogan
WLLLWLWLLW
Karsiyaka
LWLWLWLWWW
#29
League position
#27
-7.5
Net rating
+6.6
103.1
Offensive rating
122.1
110.6
Defensive rating
115.4
48.6%
Effective FG%
60.2%
55.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.1%
20.4%
Turnover %
15.0%
31.9%
Off. rebound %
24.3%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.38
27.9%
3-point %
45.5%
65.5%
Assist %
72.1%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence103.1 · 122.1Defence110.6 · 115.4Shooting48.6% · 60.2%3-point %27.9% · 45.5%Ball care20.4% · 15.0%Off. rebounds31.9% · 24.3%Free throws0.36 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Breogan   ■ Karsiyaka
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Breogan wins
1
Karsiyaka wins
DateGameScore
03/01/24Karsiyaka v Breogan89-85
Breoganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/01/24HGranada85-79
03/01/24AKarsiyaka85-89
30/12/23AGran Canaria60-86
23/12/23HObradoiro CAB88-90
20/12/23HBonn97-92 OT
17/12/23HMurcia74-83
09/12/23ABilbao76-68
06/12/23ABursaspor65-77
03/12/23AReal Madrid58-91
26/11/23HBasket Zaragoza82-77
Karsiyakalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/01/24HManisa87-91
03/01/24HBreogan89-85
29/12/23AMerkezefendi94-107
24/12/23HTofas98-71
19/12/23AOostende76-78
16/12/23ASamsunspor82-80
13/12/23AOldenburg88-97
09/12/23HGalatasaray98-76
01/12/23ABahcesehir Kol.93-85
28/11/23HStrasbourg87-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Breogan
Champions League 2023
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL43%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %43%100%0%
Points / game78.182.375.0
Allowed / game78.370.784.0
Point differential-0.1+11.7-9.0
Avg total156.4153.0159.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)100% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %14%33%0%
Karsiyaka
Champions League 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW57%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %57%100%0%
Points / game83.488.876.3
Allowed / game81.779.285.0
Point differential+1.7+9.5-8.7
Avg total165.1168.0161.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murcia65183%86.271.2+15.0
2 Dijon65183%87.773.5+14.2
3 Hapoel Jerusalem65183%85.573.3+12.2
4 AEK Athens65183%88.076.8+11.2
5 Strasbourg97278%81.277.4+3.8
6 Obradoiro CAB32167%80.768.0+12.7
7 Unicaja64267%81.773.7+8.0
8 Tenerife64267%81.773.8+7.8
9 Brindisi32167%74.772.3+2.3
10 Norrkoping32167%77.776.3+1.3
11 Promitheas85362%85.677.6+8.0
12 Galatasaray85362%84.981.4+3.5
13 Tortona85362%82.481.2+1.1
14 Peristeri85362%82.083.1-1.1
15 Cholet106460%80.981.7-0.8
16 Karsiyaka74357%83.481.7+1.7
17 Nes Ziona21150%83.067.5+15.5
18 Bakken Bears21150%85.578.5+7.0
19 Rytas84450%85.181.0+4.1
20 Bonn63350%82.878.8+4.0
21 Legia21150%68.066.5+1.5
22 Hapoel Holon84450%75.574.6+0.9
23 Ludwigsburg84450%79.279.5-0.2
24 Den Bosch21150%79.581.0-1.5
25 Darussafaka84450%79.281.8-2.5
26 Fribourg Olympic21150%58.060.5-2.5
27 Varese21150%80.583.5-3.0
28 Oostende84450%75.480.0-4.6
29 Bursaspor63350%73.278.8-5.7
30 PAOK84450%75.882.5-6.8
31 AEK Larnaca21150%66.576.5-10.0
32 Benfica94544%81.778.7+3.0
33 Breogan73443%78.178.3-0.1
34 Sassari73443%86.087.9-1.9
35 Tofas83538%89.287.8+1.5
36 Le Mans83538%77.979.0-1.1
37 Oldenburg62433%84.082.5+1.5
38 Szczecin62433%78.882.7-3.8
39 VEF Riga62433%71.876.0-4.2
40 Szombathely62433%76.081.3-5.3
41 FMP Beograd1010%71.073.0-2.0
42 CSM Oradea1010%74.077.0-3.0
43 Antwerp Giants1010%72.076.0-4.0
44 BC Kalev/Cramo1010%78.082.0-4.0
45 Jonava1010%78.083.0-5.0
46 Caledonia Gladiators1010%51.057.0-6.0
47 Levice1010%66.074.0-8.0
48 Gottingen1010%84.096.0-12.0
49 Igokea6060%72.587.0-14.5
50 Peja1010%79.0103.0-24.0
51 Opava6060%72.0102.0-30.0
52 Mornar Bar1010%56.090.0-34.0
53 Karhu Basket1010%56.092.0-36.0
54 TSU1010%62.0122.0-60.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 54 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Breogan2416211980
Karsiyaka2318211173
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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