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Cerrado vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 21 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 82-74
19-16 25-18 21-17 17-23
Position#17
Record4-11
FormLWLLL
Points / game72.6
Allowed / game73.6
vs
Position#11
Record6-8
FormWLLLL
Points / game77.1
Allowed / game80.3
BrazilNBB· Ginasio da ASCEB
Other2023-24
Meetings · Cerrado v Sao Paulo
21 Dec 2023
CERR82
SAO 74
15 Dec 2022
CERR101
SAO 94
27 Jan 2022
CERR86
SAO 84
01 Apr 2021
CERR80
SAO 86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cerrado winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CerradoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCerrado
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#2
L
71-89
71
89
-18
62avg 64
A13/11
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
71-74
71
74
-3
54avg 64
A15/11
NBB
Botafogo
#15
L
73-74
73
74
-1
70avg 64
A18/11
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
84-53
84
53
+31
88avg 64
H24/11
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
70-62
70
62
+8
64avg 64
H28/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
74-78
74
78
-4
65avg 64
H02/12
NBB
Minas
#3
W
68-67
68
67
+1
58avg 64
A06/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
77-80
77
80
-3
71avg 64
A09/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
81-90
81
90
-9
83avg 64
A11/12
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
64-68
64
68
-4
56avg 64
H18/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-21
13-16
23-20
19-32
18-22
16-17
14-15
23-20
17-14
28-24
12-16
16-20
21-13
20-15
24-16
19-9
21-15
17-20
13-13
19-14
14-12
14-19
28-21
18-26
20-23
26-13
10-17
12-14
22-22
17-22
20-16
18-20
20-27
25-20
19-24
17-19
14-15
23-20
12-14
15-19
146.8Avg total
73.3Scored
73.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)72.673.6146.2-1.027%
Season at home (8)72.968.4141.2+4.538%
Season away (7)72.379.6151.9-7.314%
Last 10 (10)73.373.5146.8-0.230%
Last 5 (5)72.876.6149.4-3.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)73.089.0162.1-16.05%
vs Similar ◀ (6)74.277.0151.2-2.833%
vs Weaker (4)82.069.2151.2+12.850%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#13
W
81-75
81
75
+6
77avg 68
A17/11
NBB
Pato
#12
W
89-67
89
67
+22
85avg 68
H20/11
NBB
Minas
#3
L
75-83
75
83
-8
65avg 68
H23/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
84-79
84
79
+5
83avg 68
A28/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
81-74
81
74
+7
79avg 68
A30/11
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
78-77
78
77
+1
74avg 68
H04/12
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
70-83
70
83
-13
60avg 68
H07/12
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
70-75
70
75
-5
57avg 68
H09/12
NBB
Quimsa
#3
L
65-112
65
112
-47
46avg 68
A16/12
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
L
84-89 OT
84
89
-5
67avg 68
H17/12
Champions League Americas
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-20
18-21
22-16
22-18
20-25
20-19
22-10
27-13
24-30
16-21
14-15
21-17
15-19
20-20
19-18
30-22
17-16
19-15
22-24
23-19
13-22
31-22
17-14
17-19
10-22
22-15
24-18
14-28
20-24
9-22
21-15
20-14
12-24
24-24
10-39
19-25
8-17
23-26
24-21
21-12
159.1Avg total
77.7Scored
81.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)77.180.3157.4-3.143%
Season at home (7)78.079.6157.6-1.643%
Season away (7)76.381.0157.3-4.743%
Last 10 (10)77.781.4159.1-3.750%
Last 5 (5)73.487.2160.6-13.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)80.085.6165.6-5.643%
vs Similar ◀ (12)79.782.0161.7-2.342%
vs Weaker (4)84.573.5158.0+11.0100%
This opponent (Cerrado) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -6.1-6.1Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -1.7-1.7Q4: +2.7+2.7
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -6.1-6.1Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -1.7-1.7Q4: +2.7+2.7
CerradoSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CerradoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#2
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A13/11
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A15/11
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A18/11
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
41-28
41
28
+13
H24/11
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H28/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
28-31
28
31
-3
H02/12
NBB
Minas
#3
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A06/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A09/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
45-47
45
47
-2
A11/12
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H18/12
NBB
75.2Avg total
38.2Scored
37.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.041.479.4-3.340%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.339.178.3+0.253%-
Last 30 away (15)36.843.780.5-6.927%-
Last 10 (10)38.237.075.2+1.250%-
Last 5 (5)39.038.677.6+0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)37.544.481.8-6.930%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)35.538.073.5-2.533%-
vs Weaker (4)44.531.576.0+13.0100%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#13
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A17/11
NBB
Pato
#12
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H20/11
NBB
Minas
#3
L
40-51
40
51
-11
H23/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A28/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A30/11
NBB
Botafogo
#15
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H04/12
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H07/12
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
29-46
29
46
-17
H09/12
NBB
Quimsa
#3
L
36-48
36
48
-12
A16/12
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
L
31-43
31
43
-12
H17/12
Champions League Americas
78.4Avg total
36.0Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.141.180.2-1.940%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.140.581.6+0.547%-
Last 30 away (15)37.241.678.8-4.433%-
Last 10 (10)36.042.478.4-6.410%-
Last 5 (5)34.443.678.0-9.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)39.141.880.9-2.643%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)38.042.780.7-4.733%-
vs Weaker (4)42.533.876.2+8.850%-
This opponent (Cerrado) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cerradotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cerrado: 72.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.917.1
44.0%
51.8%34.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.58.8
37.4%
33.9%26.4
🏀 Free throws18.211.7
64.3%
72.6%11.7
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 76.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.718.2
55.7%
51.8%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.58.5
30.9%
33.9%25.5
🏀 Free throws19.615.0
76.5%
72.6%15.0
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cerrado
LLLWLWWLLL
Sao Paulo
LLLLWWWLWW
#17
League position
#11
-0.8
Net rating
-4.6
101.5
Offensive rating
107.6
102.4
Defensive rating
112.2
48.6%
Effective FG%
51.4%
49.4%
Opp. effective FG%
53.9%
17.9%
Turnover %
15.8%
31.6%
Off. rebound %
26.1%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.33
37.4%
3-point %
30.9%
67.6%
Assist %
53.9%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence101.5 · 107.6Defence102.4 · 112.2Shooting48.6% · 51.4%3-point %37.4% · 30.9%Ball care17.9% · 15.8%Off. rebounds31.6% · 26.1%Free throws0.29 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)30% · 50%
■ Cerrado   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Cerrado wins
3
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
15/04/23Sao Paulo v Cerrado95-64
15/12/22Cerrado v Sao Paulo101-94
27/01/22Cerrado v Sao Paulo86-84
26/10/21Sao Paulo v Cerrado76-78 OT
01/04/21Cerrado v Sao Paulo80-86
15/12/20Sao Paulo v Cerrado91-83
Cerradolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/12/23HPaulistano64-68
11/12/23ABauru81-90
09/12/23AFranca77-80
06/12/23AMinas68-67
02/12/23HSao Jose74-78
28/11/23HMogi70-62
24/11/23HBrasilia84-53
18/11/23ABotafogo73-74
15/11/23AVasco71-74
13/11/23AFlamengo71-89
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/23HNacional84-89 OT
16/12/23AQuimsa65-112
09/12/23HVasco70-75
07/12/23HFlamengo70-83
04/12/23HBotafogo78-77
30/11/23AUniao Corinthians81-74
28/11/23ACaxias do Sul84-79
23/11/23HMinas75-83
20/11/23HPato89-67
17/11/23APinheiros81-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cerrado
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL27%
HomeLWWLL38%
AwayLLWLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1587
Win %27%38%14%
Points / game72.672.972.3
Allowed / game73.668.479.6
Point differential-1.0+4.5-7.3
Avg total146.2141.2151.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won17% (6)0% (2)25% (4)
Overtime %7%12%0%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL43%
HomeWLWLL43%
AwayLLWWW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %43%43%43%
Points / game77.178.076.3
Allowed / game80.379.681.0
Point differential-3.1-1.6-4.7
Avg total157.4157.6157.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%14%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo1210283%83.072.3+10.7
2 Minas1512380%84.975.0+9.9
3 Franca1310377%87.075.5+11.5
4 Vasco1611569%72.968.6+4.2
5 Paulistano1611569%73.169.8+3.4
6 Sao Jose149564%81.173.4+7.7
7 Unifacisa149564%79.475.4+3.9
8 Cearense138562%78.075.5+2.5
9 Bauru1710759%79.076.6+2.4
10 Corinthians Paulista147750%80.680.7-0.1
11 Pinheiros146843%76.679.2-2.6
12 Sao Paulo146843%77.180.3-3.1
13 Uniao Corinthians135838%72.579.8-7.4
14 Caxias do Sul145936%72.279.6-7.4
15 Pato1551033%74.778.8-4.1
16 Botafogo1751229%77.884.7-6.9
17 Cerrado1541127%72.673.6-1.0
18 Brasilia1531220%71.685.8-14.2
19 Mogi1521313%74.280.7-6.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Cerrado1925211782
Sao Paulo1618172374
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