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Duke vs NC State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 31 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 21:05
Final 64-76
27-21 37-55
Position#32
Record27-8
FormLLWWW
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game66.0
vs
Position#94
Record25-14
FormWWWWW
Points / game76.3
Allowed / game72.2
USANCAANCAA - Quarter-finals
Other2023-24
Meetings · Duke v NC State
27 Jan 2025
DUKE74
NC S64
31 Mar 2024
DUKE64
NC S76
14 Mar 2024
DUKE69
NC S74
28 Feb 2023
DUKE71
NC S67
15 Jan 2022
DUKE88
NC S73
12 Mar 2020
DUKE v NC S
upcoming
02 Mar 2020
DUKE88
NC S69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
NC State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#246
W
84-55
84
55
+29
A22/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
L
79-83
79
83
-4
A24/02
NCAA
Louisville
#348
W
84-59
84
59
+25
H29/02
NCAA
Virginia
#66
W
73-48
73
48
+25
H02/03
NCAA
NC State
#94
W
79-64
79
64
+15
A05/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
79-84
79
84
-5
H09/03
NCAA
NC State
#94
L
69-74
69
74
-5
H14/03
NCAA
Vermont
#16
W
64-47
64
47
+17
H22/03
NCAA
James Madison
#6
W
93-55
93
55
+38
H24/03
NCAA
Houston
#9
W
54-51
54
51
+3
A30/03
NCAA
1H
2H
40-23
44-32
38-36
41-47
36-23
48-36
40-18
33-30
33-30
46-34
31-40
48-44
32-35
37-39
34-29
30-18
47-25
46-30
23-22
31-29
137.8Avg total
75.8Scored
62.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)79.066.0145.1+13.077%
Season at home (22)81.465.1146.5+16.382%
Season away (13)75.067.5142.5+7.569%
Last 10 (10)75.862.0137.8+13.870%
Last 5 (5)71.862.2134.0+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)75.366.7142.0+8.767%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)78.866.2144.9+12.679%
This opponent (NC State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duke
#32
L
64-79
64
79
-15
H05/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#69
L
73-81
73
81
-8
A10/03
NCAA
Louisville
#348
W
94-85
94
85
+9
H12/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#110
W
83-65
83
65
+18
A13/03
NCAA
Duke
#32
W
74-69
74
69
+5
A14/03
NCAA
Virginia
#66
W
73-65 OT
73
65
+8
A16/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
W
84-76
84
76
+8
A17/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#64
W
80-67
80
67
+13
A22/03
NCAA
Oakland
#76
W
79-73 OT
79
73
+6
H23/03
NCAA
Marquette
#36
W
67-58
67
58
+9
A29/03
NCAA
1H
2H
30-33
34-46
29-39
44-42
45-46
49-39
35-32
48-33
35-32
39-37
29-29
29-29
39-40
45-36
37-33
43-34
32-29
34-37
37-24
30-34
148.9Avg total
77.1Scored
71.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)76.372.2148.5+4.164%
Season at home (19)78.670.1148.7+8.574%
Season away (20)74.074.2148.2-0.155%
Last 10 (10)77.171.8148.9+5.380%
Last 5 (5)76.667.8144.4+8.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)68.972.8141.7-3.933%
vs Similar (15)76.573.4149.9+3.160%
vs Weaker (6)80.772.0152.7+8.7100%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +7.3+7.31st half: +1.1+1.12nd half2nd half: +6.5+6.52nd half: +2.8+2.8
-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +7.3+7.31st half: +1.1+1.12nd half2nd half: +6.5+6.52nd half: +2.8+2.8
DukeNC State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#246
W
40-23
40
23
+17
A22/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A24/02
NCAA
Louisville
#348
W
36-23
36
23
+13
H29/02
NCAA
Virginia
#66
W
40-18
40
18
+22
H02/03
NCAA
NC State
#94
W
33-30
33
30
+3
A05/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
31-40
31
40
-9
H09/03
NCAA
NC State
#94
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H14/03
NCAA
Vermont
#16
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H22/03
NCAA
James Madison
#6
W
47-25
47
25
+22
H24/03
NCAA
Houston
#9
W
23-22
23
22
+1
A30/03
NCAA
63.5Avg total
35.4Scored
28.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.430.967.3+5.573%-
Last 30 at home (18)36.630.967.4+5.772%-
Last 30 away (12)36.130.967.0+5.275%-
Last 10 (10)35.428.163.5+7.380%-
Last 5 (5)33.430.263.6+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)34.032.266.2+1.867%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)37.030.667.5+6.475%-
This opponent (NC State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duke
#32
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H05/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#69
L
29-39
29
39
-10
A10/03
NCAA
Louisville
#348
L
45-46
45
46
-1
H12/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#110
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A13/03
NCAA
Duke
#32
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A14/03
NCAA
Virginia
#66
D
29-29
29
29
+0
A16/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A17/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#64
W
37-33
37
33
+4
A22/03
NCAA
Oakland
#76
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H23/03
NCAA
Marquette
#36
W
37-24
37
24
+13
A29/03
NCAA
68.5Avg total
34.8Scored
33.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.335.069.3-0.643%-
Last 30 at home (14)34.935.770.6-0.836%-
Last 30 away (16)33.834.368.1-0.550%-
Last 10 (10)34.833.768.5+1.150%-
Last 5 (5)34.831.065.8+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)33.834.167.9-0.333%-
vs Similar (15)33.334.667.9-1.353%-
vs Weaker (6)37.737.274.8+0.533%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Duke wins
3
NC State wins
DateGameScore
14/03/24Duke v NC State69-74
05/03/24NC State v Duke64-79
01/03/23Duke v NC State71-67
05/01/23NC State v Duke84-60
15/01/22Duke v NC State88-73
13/02/21NC State v Duke53-69
03/03/20Duke v NC State88-69
20/02/20NC State v Duke88-66
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/03/24AHouston54-51
24/03/24HJames Madison93-55
22/03/24HVermont64-47
14/03/24HNC State69-74
09/03/24HNorth Carolina79-84
05/03/24ANC State79-64
02/03/24HVirginia73-48
29/02/24HLouisville84-59
24/02/24AWake Forest79-83
22/02/24AMiami (FL)84-55
NC Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/03/24AMarquette67-58
23/03/24HOakland79-73 OT
22/03/24ATexas Tech80-67
17/03/24ANorth Carolina84-76
16/03/24AVirginia73-65 OT
14/03/24ADuke74-69
13/03/24ASyracuse83-65
12/03/24HLouisville94-85
10/03/24APittsburgh73-81
05/03/24HDuke64-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW77%
HomeWLLWW82%
AwayWWLWW69%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games352213
Win %77%82%69%
Points / game79.081.475.0
Allowed / game66.065.167.5
Point differential+13.0+16.3+7.5
Avg total145.1146.5142.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%64%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won30% (10)33% (6)25% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
NC State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW64%
HomeLWLWW74%
AwayWWWWW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games391920
Win %64%74%55%
Points / game76.378.674.0
Allowed / game72.270.174.2
Point differential+4.1+8.5-0.1
Avg total148.5148.7148.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%47%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)0% (2)75% (4)
Overtime %10%5%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 North Carolina3729878%81.970.5+11.5
2 Duke3527877%79.066.0+13.0
3 Virginia34231168%62.959.8+3.1
4 Pittsburgh33221167%75.667.6+8.0
5 Clemson36241267%77.471.2+6.2
6 NC State39251464%76.372.2+4.1
7 SMU Mustangs32201262%76.367.8+8.5
8 Syracuse32201262%76.375.6+0.7
9 Wake Forest33201361%78.270.5+7.7
10 Virginia Tech32181456%75.071.1+3.9
11 Boston College34191556%74.672.1+2.5
12 Florida State33171652%76.576.3+0.2
13 Miami (FL)33151845%75.473.6+1.8
14 Stanford32141844%76.376.5-0.1
15 Georgia Tech32141844%71.075.2-4.2
16 California32131941%74.077.0-3.1
17 Notre Dame33132039%64.067.2-3.1
18 Louisville3282425%72.079.1-7.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke273764
NC State215576
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