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Duke vs North Carolina Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 09 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 79-84
31-40 48-44
Position#32
Record24-6
FormWLWWW
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game66.7
Duke
USA
vs
North Carolina 🏆
USA
Position#19
Record24-6
FormWWWWW
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game69.8
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Duke v North Carolina
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NORT61
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01 Feb 2025
DUKE87
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09 Mar 2024
DUKE79
NORT84
04 Feb 2023
DUKE63
NORT57
02 Apr 2022
DUKE77
NORT81
05 Mar 2022
DUKE81
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06 Feb 2021
DUKE87
NORT91
07 Mar 2020
DUKE89
NORT76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#19
L
84-93
84
93
-9
A03/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
W
71-53
71
53
+18
H08/02
NCAA
Boston College
#169
W
80-65
80
65
+15
H10/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
W
77-69
77
69
+8
H13/02
NCAA
Florida State
#196
W
76-67
76
67
+9
A17/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
84-55
84
55
+29
A22/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
L
79-83
79
83
-4
A24/02
NCAA
Louisville
#348
W
84-59
84
59
+25
H29/02
NCAA
Virginia
#66
W
73-48
73
48
+25
H02/03
NCAA
NC State
#94
W
79-64
79
64
+15
A05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
35-45
49-48
33-25
38-28
36-32
44-33
29-27
48-42
44-34
32-33
40-23
44-32
38-36
41-47
36-23
48-36
40-18
33-30
33-30
46-34
144.3Avg total
78.7Scored
65.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)80.266.7146.9+13.680%
Season at home (18)82.665.2147.7+17.489%
Season away (12)76.868.9145.7+7.867%
Last 10 (10)78.765.6144.3+13.180%
Last 5 (5)79.861.8141.6+18.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (3)78.380.3158.7-2.033%
vs Weaker (27)80.465.1145.6+15.385%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#265
L
73-74
73
74
-1
A31/01
NCAA
Duke
#32
W
93-84
93
84
+9
H03/02
NCAA
Clemson
#74
L
76-80
76
80
-4
H07/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
75-72
75
72
+3
A10/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#110
L
79-86
79
86
-7
A14/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
W
96-81
96
81
+15
H17/02
NCAA
Virginia
#66
W
54-44
54
44
+10
A24/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
75-71
75
71
+4
H27/02
NCAA
NC State
#94
W
79-70
79
70
+9
H02/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
W
84-51
84
51
+33
H06/03
NCAA
1H
2H
37-37
36-37
45-35
48-49
34-43
42-37
40-41
35-31
42-42
37-44
50-39
46-42
26-16
28-28
37-32
38-39
37-45
42-25
41-25
43-26
149.7Avg total
78.4Scored
71.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)81.569.8151.3+11.880%
Season at home (18)87.370.8158.1+16.689%
Season away (12)72.868.2141.1+4.667%
Last 10 (10)78.471.3149.7+7.170%
Last 5 (5)77.663.4141.0+14.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)76.087.0163.0-11.00%
vs Similar ◀ (5)86.276.8163.0+9.480%
vs Weaker (24)80.867.6148.4+13.283%
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +7.1+7.11st half: +3.4+3.42nd half2nd half: +6.0+6.02nd half: +3.7+3.7
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +7.1+7.11st half: +3.4+3.42nd half2nd half: +6.0+6.02nd half: +3.7+3.7
DukeNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#19
L
35-45
35
45
-10
A03/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
W
33-25
33
25
+8
H08/02
NCAA
Boston College
#169
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H10/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
W
29-27
29
27
+2
H13/02
NCAA
Florida State
#196
W
44-34
44
34
+10
A17/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
40-23
40
23
+17
A22/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A24/02
NCAA
Louisville
#348
W
36-23
36
23
+13
H29/02
NCAA
Virginia
#66
W
40-18
40
18
+22
H02/03
NCAA
NC State
#94
W
33-30
33
30
+3
A05/03
NCAA
65.7Avg total
36.4Scored
29.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.130.567.6+6.677%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.330.467.7+6.978%-
Last 30 away (12)36.830.867.5+6.075%-
Last 10 (10)36.429.365.7+7.190%-
Last 5 (5)37.426.063.4+11.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (3)34.039.373.3-5.333%-
vs Weaker (27)37.429.667.0+7.981%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#265
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A31/01
NCAA
Duke
#32
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H03/02
NCAA
Clemson
#74
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H07/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A10/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#110
D
42-42
42
42
+0
A14/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H17/02
NCAA
Virginia
#66
W
26-16
26
16
+10
A24/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
37-32
37
32
+5
H27/02
NCAA
NC State
#94
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H02/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H06/03
NCAA
74.4Avg total
38.9Scored
35.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.034.573.5+4.457%-
Last 30 at home (18)41.434.876.2+6.767%-
Last 30 away (12)35.234.269.4+1.142%-
Last 10 (10)38.935.574.4+3.450%-
Last 5 (5)38.231.469.6+6.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)39.044.083.0-5.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)41.635.276.8+6.460%-
vs Weaker (24)38.434.072.4+4.458%-
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Duke wins
5
North Carolina wins
DateGameScore
03/02/24North Carolina v Duke93-84
04/03/23North Carolina v Duke57-62
04/02/23Duke v North Carolina63-57
03/04/22Duke v North Carolina77-81
05/03/22Duke v North Carolina81-94
05/02/22North Carolina v Duke67-87
06/03/21North Carolina v Duke91-73
06/02/21Duke v North Carolina87-91
07/03/20Duke v North Carolina89-76
08/02/20North Carolina v Duke96-98 OT
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/24ANC State79-64
02/03/24HVirginia73-48
29/02/24HLouisville84-59
24/02/24AWake Forest79-83
22/02/24AMiami (FL)84-55
17/02/24AFlorida State76-67
13/02/24HWake Forest77-69
10/02/24HBoston College80-65
08/02/24HNotre Dame71-53
03/02/24ANorth Carolina84-93
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/24HNotre Dame84-51
02/03/24HNC State79-70
27/02/24HMiami (FL)75-71
24/02/24AVirginia54-44
17/02/24HVirginia Tech96-81
14/02/24ASyracuse79-86
10/02/24AMiami (FL)75-72
07/02/24HClemson76-80
03/02/24HDuke93-84
31/01/24AGeorgia Tech73-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW80%
HomeWWWWW89%
AwayLWWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301812
Win %80%89%67%
Points / game80.282.676.8
Allowed / game66.765.268.9
Point differential+13.6+17.4+7.8
Avg total146.9147.7145.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%67%42%
Close games (≤5 pts) won29% (7)50% (4)0% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
North Carolina
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW80%
HomeLWWWW89%
AwayWLWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301812
Win %80%89%67%
Points / game81.587.372.8
Allowed / game69.870.868.2
Point differential+11.8+16.6+4.6
Avg total151.3158.1141.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%61%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)33% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %3%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3024680%80.266.7+13.6
2 North Carolina3024680%81.569.8+11.8
3 Virginia3021970%63.259.2+4.0
4 Clemson31211068%78.171.2+7.0
5 SMU Mustangs30201067%77.167.4+9.7
6 Pittsburgh30201067%75.667.3+8.3
7 Syracuse31201165%76.775.4+1.3
8 Wake Forest31191261%78.770.5+8.2
9 Virginia Tech31181358%75.070.6+4.4
10 NC State30171357%75.672.5+3.1
11 Boston College31171455%74.873.1+1.7
12 Florida State31161552%76.575.8+0.7
13 Miami (FL)32151747%75.773.3+2.4
14 Georgia Tech30141647%71.275.0-3.9
15 Stanford30131743%76.576.4+0.1
16 California31131842%73.976.7-2.8
17 Notre Dame31121939%63.566.6-3.0
18 Louisville3182326%71.678.6-7.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke314879
North Carolina404484
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