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Esgueira vs Benfica Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 06 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#12
Record0-4
FormLLLLL
Points / game73.8
Allowed / game92.8
vs
Position#3
Record3-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game87.8
Allowed / game75.8
PortugalLPBRound 17· Pavilhão Clube do Povo de Esgueira
Other2026-27
Meetings · Esgueira v Benfica
06 Mar 2027
ESGU v BEN
upcoming
18 Apr 2026
ESGU65
BEN107
09 Nov 2024
ESGU85
BEN93
03 Feb 2024
ESGU64
BEN100
18 Feb 2023
ESGU61
BEN93
13 Mar 2021
ESGU77
BEN92
21 Dec 2019
ESGU76
BEN84
13 Oct 2018
ESGU69
BEN89
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Esgueira win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Benfica win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

EsgueiraPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Imortal
#6
W
97-83 OT
97
83
+14
H04/04
LPB
Vitoria
#10
L
87-93
87
93
-6
A11/04
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
65-107
65
107
-42
H18/04
LPB
FC Porto
#2
W
86-85
86
85
+1
A25/04
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
67-109
67
109
-42
A10/05
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
73-85
73
85
-12
H14/05
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
L
64-84
64
84
-20
H03/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#6
L
60-88
60
88
-28
A10/10
LPB
FC Porto
#1
L
91-95
91
95
-4
H16/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
80-104
80
104
-24
A24/10
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-21
22-15
19-22
18-20
17-21
15-23
30-29
25-20
25-25
13-31
17-31
10-20
21-27
16-23
26-20
23-15
21-27
20-30
9-25
17-27
18-25
18-23
21-19
16-18
25-16
7-25
20-17
12-26
17-20
8-23
18-23
17-22
27-25
19-24
14-22
31-24
24-23
8-32
20-24
28-25
170.3Avg total
77.0Scored
93.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)73.892.8166.5-19.00%
Season at home (2)77.589.5167.0-12.00%
Season away (2)70.096.0166.0-26.00%
Last 10 (10)77.093.3170.3-16.320%
Last 5 (5)73.691.2164.8-17.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)78.390.0168.3-11.728%
vs Similar (8)85.991.0176.9-5.125%
vs Weaker (4)92.095.2187.2-3.250%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BenficaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geneva Lions
#44
W
87-78
87
78
+9
H15/09
Champions League
Vechta
#18
L
88-98
88
98
-10
H17/09
Champions League
Sporting CP
#6
W
84-71
84
71
+13
H03/10
LPB
Bakken Bears
#16
W
91-81
91
81
+10
A07/10
FIBA Europe Cup
FC Porto
#1
L
86-93
86
93
-7
A11/10
LPB
Denizli Basket
#25
W
96-91
96
91
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#5
W
92-67
92
67
+25
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#18
W
98-83
98
83
+15
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#9
W
89-72
89
72
+17
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#24
L
90-93
90
93
-3
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-17
20-21
17-17
25-23
21-28
30-21
22-19
15-30
19-19
19-22
19-13
27-17
19-16
19-20
27-14
26-31
26-16
19-24
27-32
14-21
28-23
22-22
27-17
19-29
21-13
24-19
26-18
21-17
28-20
19-26
22-14
29-23
22-20
22-29
18-10
27-13
33-28
22-22
14-19
21-24
172.8Avg total
90.1Scored
82.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)87.875.8163.5+12.075%
Season at home (2)88.069.0157.0+19.0100%
Season away (2)87.582.5170.0+5.050%
Last 10 (10)90.182.7172.8+7.470%
Last 5 (5)93.081.2174.2+11.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)90.591.8182.2-1.225%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)92.478.3170.7+14.080%
This opponent (Esgueira) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-13-6+0+6+13Q1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q1: +4.2+4.2Q2Q2: -10.3-10.3Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -3.8-3.8Q3: +4.6+4.6Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -0.4-0.4
EsgueiraBenfica
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
EsgueiraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Imortal
#6
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H04/04
LPB
Vitoria
#10
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A11/04
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
38-56
38
56
-18
H18/04
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
37-50
37
50
-13
A25/04
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
41-57
41
57
-16
A10/05
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H14/05
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H03/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#6
L
25-43
25
43
-18
A10/10
LPB
FC Porto
#1
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H16/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
32-55
32
55
-23
A24/10
LPB
83.9Avg total
36.0Scored
47.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.847.387.1-7.513%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.747.589.2-5.727%-
Last 30 away (15)37.847.184.9-9.30%-
Last 10 (10)36.047.983.9-11.910%-
Last 5 (5)34.247.281.4-13.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)38.547.786.2-9.211%-
vs Similar (8)41.547.088.5-5.512%-
vs Weaker (4)42.046.288.2-4.225%-
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BenficaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geneva Lions
#44
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H15/09
Champions League
Vechta
#18
W
51-49
51
49
+2
H17/09
Champions League
Sporting CP
#6
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H03/10
LPB
Bakken Bears
#16
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A07/10
FIBA Europe Cup
FC Porto
#1
W
45-40
45
40
+5
A11/10
LPB
Denizli Basket
#25
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#5
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#18
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#9
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#24
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
88.4Avg total
45.8Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.640.587.1+6.170%-
Last 30 at home (17)48.438.887.2+9.582%-
Last 30 away (13)44.342.686.9+1.754%-
Last 10 (10)45.842.688.4+3.280%-
Last 5 (5)48.244.492.6+3.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)49.546.295.8+3.2100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)46.239.685.8+6.664%-
This opponent (Esgueira) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Esgueiratheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Esgueira: 75.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.616.5
47.7%
50.9%33.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.29.6
30.8%
31.4%28.8
🏀 Free throws20.814.1
67.8%
70.6%14.1
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Benficatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Benfica: 90.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.124.5
53.1%
50.9%49.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.87.1
31.1%
31.4%21.3
🏀 Free throws26.019.8
76.2%
70.6%19.8
They take 68.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Esgueira
LLLLLLWLLW
Benfica
LWWWWLWWLW
#12
League position
#3
-17.1
Net rating
+8.2
82.5
Offensive rating
96.8
99.6
Defensive rating
88.6
47.0%
Effective FG%
51.0%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
46.2%
16.7%
Turnover %
13.9%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.38
30.8%
3-point %
31.1%
57.9%
Assist %
54.1%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence82.5 · 96.8Defence99.6 · 88.6Shooting47.0% · 51.0%3-point %30.8% · 31.1%Ball care16.7% · 13.9%Free throws0.32 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)20% · 70%
■ Esgueira   ■ Benfica
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Esgueira wins
10
Benfica wins
DateGameScore
18/04/26Esgueira v Benfica65-107
03/01/26Benfica v Esgueira81-72
07/03/25Benfica v Esgueira100-65
09/11/24Esgueira v Benfica85-93
14/02/24Benfica v Esgueira77-53
03/02/24Esgueira v Benfica64-100
07/10/23Benfica v Esgueira110-70
18/02/23Esgueira v Benfica61-93
30/11/22Benfica v Esgueira95-82
13/03/21Esgueira v Benfica77-92
Esgueiralast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/10/26AOliveirense80-104
16/10/26HFC Porto91-95
10/10/26ASporting CP60-88
03/10/26HCD Povoa64-84
14/05/26HSporting CP73-85
10/05/26ASporting CP67-109
25/04/26AFC Porto86-85
18/04/26HBenfica65-107
11/04/26AVitoria87-93
04/04/26HImortal97-83 OT
Benficalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26AGeneva Lions90-93
24/10/26ACA Queluz89-72
21/10/26HBC Prievidza98-83
17/10/26HOliveirense92-67
14/10/26HDenizli Basket96-91
11/10/26AFC Porto86-93
07/10/26ABakken Bears91-81
03/10/26HSporting CP84-71
17/09/26HVechta88-98
15/09/26HGeneva Lions87-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Esgueira
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLL0%
HomeLL0%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game73.877.570.0
Allowed / game92.889.596.0
Point differential-19.0-12.0-26.0
Avg total166.5167.0166.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Benfica
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game87.888.087.5
Allowed / game75.869.082.5
Point differential+12.0+19.0+5.0
Avg total163.5157.0170.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 FC Porto440100%97.888.0+9.8
2 Braga43175%89.877.5+12.2
3 Benfica43175%87.875.8+12.0
4 Ovarense43175%82.873.5+9.2
5 Oliveirense32167%87.384.7+2.7
6 Sporting CP42250%78.576.8+1.8
7 CD Povoa42250%74.272.8+1.5
8 Vitoria42250%75.082.0-7.0
9 CA Queluz31233%84.094.0-10.0
10 CAB Madeira41325%80.583.2-2.8
11 Portimonense4040%77.089.2-12.2
12 Esgueira4040%73.892.8-19.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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