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Esgueira vs Benfica Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 06 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#12
Record0-7
FormLLLLL
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game97.7
Esgueira
Portugal
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.7/10
Above normal
4.7/10
Around normal
Benfica
Portugal
Position#1
Record6-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game88.3
Allowed / game73.6
PortugalLPBRound 17· Pavilhão Clube do Povo de Esgueira
Other2026-27
Meetings · Esgueira v Benfica
06 Mar 2027
ESGU v BEN
upcoming
18 Apr 2026
ESGU65
BEN107
09 Nov 2024
ESGU85
BEN93
03 Feb 2024
ESGU64
BEN100
18 Feb 2023
ESGU61
BEN93
13 Mar 2021
ESGU77
BEN92
21 Dec 2019
ESGU76
BEN84
13 Oct 2018
ESGU69
BEN89
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Esgueira win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Benfica win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

EsgueiraPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEsgueira
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#2
W
86-85
86
85
+1
74avg 65
A25/04
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
67-109
67
109
-42
58avg 65
A10/05
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
73-85
73
85
-12
66avg 65
H14/05
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
L
64-84
64
84
-20
28avg 65
H03/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
60-88
60
88
-28
38avg 65
A10/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
91-95
91
95
-4
80avg 65
H16/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
L
80-104
80
104
-24
40avg 65
A24/10
LPB
CA Queluz
#8
L
93-104
93
104
-11
75avg 65
H31/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
78-112
78
112
-34
no box
A07/11
LPB
Portimonense
#11
L
96-97 OT
96
97
-1
no box
A14/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-27
16-23
26-20
23-15
21-27
20-30
9-25
17-27
18-25
18-23
21-19
16-18
25-16
7-25
20-17
12-26
17-20
8-23
18-23
17-22
27-25
19-24
14-22
31-24
24-23
8-32
20-24
28-25
24-23
29-26
13-34
27-21
20-23
14-25
28-27
16-37
21-41
25-13
14-15
27-18
175.1Avg total
78.8Scored
96.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)80.397.7178.0-17.40%
Season at home (3)82.794.3177.0-11.70%
Season away (4)78.5100.2178.8-21.80%
Last 10 (10)78.896.3175.1-17.510%
Last 5 (5)87.6102.4190.0-14.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)80.192.6172.7-12.525%
vs Similar (6)88.392.8181.2-4.533%
vs Weaker (4)92.095.2187.2-3.250%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BenficaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBenfica
Date
Competition
Denizli Basket
#31
W
96-91
96
91
+5
87avg 87
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#4
W
92-67
92
67
+25
90avg 87
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#23
W
98-83
98
83
+15
93avg 87
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#8
W
89-72
89
72
+17
87avg 87
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#17
L
90-93
90
93
-3
80avg 87
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Portimonense
#11
W
86-72
86
72
+14
83avg 87
A31/10
LPB
Absheron Lions
#45
W
97-76
97
76
+21
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Esgueira
#12
W
112-78
112
78
+34
no box
H07/11
LPB
Bakken Bears
#22
W
94-79
94
79
+15
no box
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
CAB Madeira
#10
W
69-62
69
62
+7
no box
H14/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-23
22-22
27-17
19-29
21-13
24-19
26-18
21-17
28-20
19-26
22-14
29-23
22-20
22-29
18-10
27-13
33-28
22-22
14-19
21-24
16-19
27-19
14-16
29-18
25-18
30-21
24-17
18-20
23-20
25-14
27-28
37-16
26-20
24-22
24-24
20-13
11-18
29-13
12-14
17-17
169.6Avg total
92.3Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)88.373.6161.9+14.786%
Season at home (4)89.269.5158.8+19.8100%
Season away (3)87.079.0166.0+8.067%
Last 10 (10)92.377.3169.6+15.090%
Last 5 (5)91.673.4165.0+18.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)93.090.5183.5+2.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)90.777.4168.1+13.378%
This opponent (Esgueira) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: -8.0-8.0Q2: +3.7+3.7Q3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: +4.8+4.8
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: -8.0-8.0Q2: +3.7+3.7Q3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: +4.8+4.8
EsgueiraBenfica
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
EsgueiraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#2
L
37-50
37
50
-13
A25/04
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
41-57
41
57
-16
A10/05
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H14/05
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H03/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
25-43
25
43
-18
A10/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H16/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
L
32-55
32
55
-23
A24/10
LPB
CA Queluz
#8
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H31/10
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A07/11
LPB
Portimonense
#11
L
46-54
46
54
-8
A14/11
LPB
87.6Avg total
38.2Scored
49.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.047.687.6-7.617%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.347.289.5-4.933%-
Last 30 away (15)37.748.185.7-10.40%-
Last 10 (10)38.249.487.6-11.210%-
Last 5 (5)42.251.093.2-8.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)39.448.287.6-8.915%-
vs Similar (6)40.846.787.5-5.817%-
vs Weaker (4)42.046.288.2-4.225%-
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BenficaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Denizli Basket
#31
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#4
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#23
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#8
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#17
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Portimonense
#11
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A31/10
LPB
Absheron Lions
#45
W
55-39
55
39
+16
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Esgueira
#12
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H07/11
LPB
Bakken Bears
#22
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
CAB Madeira
#10
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H14/11
LPB
88.3Avg total
47.7Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.439.185.6+7.380%-
Last 30 at home (18)48.137.785.8+10.489%-
Last 30 away (12)43.941.285.2+2.767%-
Last 10 (10)47.740.688.3+7.190%-
Last 5 (5)47.236.884.0+10.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)49.047.596.5+1.5100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)46.338.684.9+7.778%-
This opponent (Esgueira) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Esgueiratheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Esgueira: 74.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.716.0
47.5%
51.1%32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.59.8
32.1%
31.9%29.4
🏀 Free throws19.413.1
67.5%
71.1%13.1
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Benficatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Benfica: 90.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.8 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.025.4
52.9%
51.1%50.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.17.0
31.7%
31.9%21.0
🏀 Free throws24.318.2
74.9%
71.1%18.2
They take 70.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Esgueira
LLLLLLLLLW
Benfica
WWWWWLWWWW
#12
League position
#1
-21.3
Net rating
+8.7
82.8
Offensive rating
96.7
104.1
Defensive rating
88.0
47.8%
Effective FG%
51.2%
56.8%
Opp. effective FG%
46.5%
16.8%
Turnover %
13.4%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.35
32.1%
3-point %
31.7%
57.0%
Assist %
54.0%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence82.8 · 96.7Defence104.1 · 88.0Shooting47.8% · 51.2%3-point %32.1% · 31.7%Ball care16.8% · 13.4%Free throws0.30 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)10% · 90%
■ Esgueira   ■ Benfica
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Esgueira wins
10
Benfica wins
DateGameScore
07/11/26Benfica v Esgueira112-78
18/04/26Esgueira v Benfica65-107
03/01/26Benfica v Esgueira81-72
07/03/25Benfica v Esgueira100-65
09/11/24Esgueira v Benfica85-93
14/02/24Benfica v Esgueira77-53
03/02/24Esgueira v Benfica64-100
07/10/23Benfica v Esgueira110-70
18/02/23Esgueira v Benfica61-93
30/11/22Benfica v Esgueira95-82
Esgueiralast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26APortimonense96-97 OT
07/11/26ABenfica78-112
31/10/26HCA Queluz93-104
24/10/26AOliveirense80-104
16/10/26HFC Porto91-95
10/10/26ASporting CP60-88
03/10/26HCD Povoa64-84
14/05/26HSporting CP73-85
10/05/26ASporting CP67-109
25/04/26AFC Porto86-85
Benficalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HCAB Madeira69-62
11/11/26HBakken Bears94-79
07/11/26HEsgueira112-78
04/11/26HAbsheron Lions97-76
31/10/26APortimonense86-72
28/10/26AGeneva Lions90-93
24/10/26ACA Queluz89-72
21/10/26HBC Prievidza98-83
17/10/26HOliveirense92-67
14/10/26HDenizli Basket96-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Esgueira
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLL0%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game80.382.778.5
Allowed / game97.794.3100.2
Point differential-17.4-11.7-21.8
Avg total178.0177.0178.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %14%0%25%
Benfica
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %86%100%67%
Points / game88.389.287.0
Allowed / game73.669.579.0
Point differential+14.7+19.8+8.0
Avg total161.9158.8166.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%75%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Benfica76186%88.373.6+14.7
2 FC Porto76186%91.681.6+10.0
3 Ovarense76186%84.476.9+7.6
4 Oliveirense64267%92.290.0+2.2
5 Sporting CP74357%83.674.6+9.0
6 Braga74357%88.181.1+7.0
7 CD Povoa74357%75.075.3-0.3
8 CA Queluz63350%87.891.7-3.8
9 Vitoria72529%68.783.9-15.1
10 CAB Madeira71614%82.786.4-3.7
11 Portimonense71614%78.789.0-10.3
12 Esgueira7070%80.397.7-17.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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