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Golden State Warriors vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 08 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 03:00
Final 120-113
31-31 33-22 34-29 22-31
Position#20
Record19-18
FormWWLWL
Points / game114.8
Allowed / game113.6
vs
Position#21
Record16-20
FormWWLWW
Points / game113.3
Allowed / game115.5
USANBA· Chase Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Golden State Warriors v Milwaukee Bucks
22 Jan 2027
GSW v MIL
upcoming
07 Jan 2026
GSW120
MIL113
18 Mar 2025
GSW104
MIL93
06 Mar 2024
GSW125
MIL90
11 Mar 2023
GSW125
MIL116
12 Mar 2022
GSW122
MIL109
06 Apr 2021
GSW122
MIL121
08 Jan 2020
GSW98
MIL107
08 Nov 2018
GSW111
MIL134
29 Mar 2018
GSW107
MIL116
18 Mar 2017
GSW117
MIL92
18 Dec 2015
GSW121
MIL112
04 Mar 2015
GSW102
MIL93
20 Mar 2014
GSW115
MIL110
09 Mar 2013
GSW93
MIL103
16 Mar 2012
GSW98
MIL120
03 Feb 2011
GSW100
MIL94
15 Jan 2010
GSW104
MIL113
10 Dec 2008
GSW119
MIL96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Golden State Warriors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Golden State WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWarriors
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
98-99
98
99
-1
95avg 106
A19/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
119-116
119
116
+3
114avg 106
H21/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
120-97
120
97
+23
120avg 106
H23/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
126-116
126
116
+10
121avg 106
H25/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
127-141 OT
127
141
-14
114avg 106
A28/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
120-107
120
107
+13
118avg 106
A30/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
132-125
132
125
+7
135avg 106
A31/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
94-131
94
131
-37
79avg 106
H03/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
123-114
123
114
+9
122avg 106
H04/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
102-103
102
103
-1
88avg 106
A06/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-26
24-20
18-24
27-29
32-44
32-23
29-20
26-29
26-30
32-27
31-26
31-14
40-28
31-30
29-31
26-27
29-33
35-32
36-31
22-26
28-30
31-27
30-28
31-22
30-30
39-34
29-36
34-25
23-34
22-30
21-31
28-36
25-29
33-36
42-31
23-18
19-31
32-24
13-21
38-27
231.0Avg total
116.1Scored
114.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (37)114.8113.6228.5+1.251%
Season at home (16)117.1111.7228.8+5.469%
Season away (21)113.1115.1228.3-2.038%
Last 10 (10)116.1114.9231.0+1.260%
Last 5 (5)114.2116.0230.2-1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)109.8120.9230.6-11.138%
vs Similar (15)112.8111.9224.7+0.940%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)122.3107.0229.3+15.386%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
82-127
82
127
-45
70avg 107
A14/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
105-111
105
111
-6
97avg 107
H19/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
100-103
100
103
-3
96avg 107
A22/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
111-94
111
94
+17
106avg 107
A24/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
104-125
104
125
-21
94avg 107
A27/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
112-103
112
103
+9
105avg 107
A28/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
123-113
123
113
+10
116avg 107
A30/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
113-114
113
114
-1
105avg 107
H01/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
122-121
122
121
+1
118avg 107
H03/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
115-98
115
98
+17
109avg 107
A05/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-37
23-28
23-34
11-28
25-31
28-26
23-26
29-28
29-23
31-25
15-27
25-28
26-20
33-24
27-24
25-26
35-25
15-35
33-32
21-33
28-26
26-24
31-30
27-23
25-26
38-40
32-23
28-24
32-30
30-35
26-21
25-28
24-38
27-22
36-31
35-30
28-26
34-18
23-25
30-29
219.6Avg total
108.7Scored
110.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (36)113.3115.5228.9-2.244%
Season at home (18)117.2116.6233.8+0.650%
Season away (18)109.5114.4223.9-4.939%
Last 10 (10)108.7110.9219.6-2.250%
Last 5 (5)117.0109.8226.8+7.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)110.5116.9227.4-6.426%
vs Similar (9)111.0109.4220.4+1.678%
vs Weaker (2)119.5121.5241.0-2.00%
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.4-3.4Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: -2.1-2.1
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.4-3.4Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: -2.1-2.1
Golden State WarriorsMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Golden State WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
53-46
53
46
+7
A19/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H21/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
58-57
58
57
+1
H23/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
71-58
71
58
+13
H25/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
64-65
64
65
-1
A28/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
59-57
59
57
+2
A30/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
69-64
69
64
+5
A31/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
45-64
45
64
-19
H03/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
58-65
58
65
-7
H04/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
51-55
51
55
-4
A06/01
NBA
119.0Avg total
59.2Scored
59.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.855.6111.4+0.260%-
Last 30 at home (13)58.456.2114.5+2.269%-
Last 30 away (17)53.855.2108.9-1.453%-
Last 10 (10)59.259.8119.0-0.650%-
Last 5 (5)56.461.0117.4-4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)50.858.5109.2-7.838%-
vs Similar (15)56.154.7110.9+1.460%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)60.754.1114.9+6.686%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
48-65
48
65
-17
A14/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
53-57
53
57
-4
H19/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
60-48
60
48
+12
A22/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
59-44
59
44
+15
A24/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
50-60
50
60
-10
A27/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
54-50
54
50
+4
A28/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
63-66
63
66
-3
A30/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
62-65
62
65
-3
H01/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
51-60
51
60
-9
H03/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
62-44
62
44
+18
A05/01
NBA
112.1Avg total
56.2Scored
55.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.458.6114.1-3.237%-
Last 30 at home (14)54.760.6115.3-5.929%-
Last 30 away (16)56.156.9113.0-0.944%-
Last 10 (10)56.255.9112.1+0.340%-
Last 5 (5)58.457.0115.4+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)54.260.9115.1-6.821%-
vs Similar (9)56.253.1109.3+3.167%-
vs Weaker (2)64.061.5125.5+2.550%-
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Golden State Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Golden State Warriors: 116.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.026.1
56.7%
54.8%52.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.414.6
33.6%
35.8%43.8
🏀 Free throws24.520.1
82.0%
78.1%20.1
They take 89.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 108.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.026.0
54.2%
54.8%52.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.913.1
35.5%
35.8%39.3
🏀 Free throws21.617.4
80.6%
78.1%17.4
They take 84.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Golden State Warriors
LWLWWLWWWL
Milwaukee Bucks
WWLWWLWLLL
#20
League position
#21
+1.2
Net rating
-2.2
113.0
Offensive rating
109.3
111.8
Defensive rating
111.5
53.7%
Effective FG%
53.8%
55.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.6%
14.9%
Turnover %
14.7%
27.9%
Off. rebound %
22.4%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.25
33.6%
3-point %
35.5%
71.3%
Assist %
61.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence113.0 · 109.3Defence111.8 · 111.5Shooting53.7% · 53.8%3-point %33.6% · 35.5%Ball care14.9% · 14.7%Off. rebounds27.9% · 22.4%Free throws0.27 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Golden State Warriors   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
06/01/26ALos Angeles Clippers102-103
04/01/26HUtah Jazz123-114
03/01/26HOklahoma City Thunder94-131
31/12/25ACharlotte Hornets132-125
30/12/25ABrooklyn Nets120-107
28/12/25AToronto Raptors127-141 OT
25/12/25HDallas Mavericks126-116
23/12/25HOrlando Magic120-97
21/12/25HPhoenix Suns119-116
19/12/25APhoenix Suns98-99
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/01/26ASacramento Kings115-98
03/01/26HCharlotte Hornets122-121
01/01/26HWashington Wizards113-114
30/12/25ACharlotte Hornets123-113
28/12/25AChicago Bulls112-103
27/12/25AMemphis Grizzlies104-125
24/12/25AIndiana Pacers111-94
22/12/25AMinnesota Timberwolves100-103
19/12/25HToronto Raptors105-111
14/12/25ABrooklyn Nets82-127

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Golden State Warriors
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL51%
HomeWWWLW69%
AwayLLWWL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games371621
Win %51%69%38%
Points / game114.8117.1113.1
Allowed / game113.6111.7115.1
Point differential+1.2+5.4-2.0
Avg total228.5228.8228.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%44%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (12)33% (3)33% (9)
Overtime %5%6%5%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW44%
HomeLWLLW50%
AwayWLWWW39%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games361818
Win %44%50%39%
Points / game113.3117.2109.5
Allowed / game115.5116.6114.4
Point differential-2.2+0.6-4.9
Avg total228.9233.8223.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%39%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)50% (4)33% (6)
Overtime %6%11%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder3630683%121.3108.5+12.8
2 Detroit Pistons3728976%118.5111.6+6.9
3 San Antonio Spurs35241169%118.9113.3+5.6
4 Los Angeles Lakers34231168%116.3116.1+0.1
5 Denver Nuggets37251268%124.1118.1+6.0
6 Houston Rockets33221167%119.4111.0+8.4
7 Minnesota Timberwolves37241365%119.6114.1+5.6
8 Boston Celtics36231364%117.6110.6+7.0
9 New York Knicks35221363%119.4115.3+4.1
10 Toronto Raptors37231462%114.4111.7+2.6
11 Phoenix Suns36221461%115.5111.7+3.8
12 Philadelphia 76ers35201557%117.6116.2+1.4
13 Miami Heat36201656%120.4117.4+3.0
14 Orlando Magic36201656%116.5115.0+1.5
15 Cleveland Cavaliers38211755%119.2116.8+2.4
16 Golden State Warriors37191851%114.8113.6+1.2
17 Atlanta Hawks39182146%118.4119.4-0.9
18 Portland Trail Blazers37172046%116.9119.6-2.7
19 Chicago Bulls37172046%117.1121.2-4.1
20 Milwaukee Bucks36162044%113.3115.5-2.2
21 Memphis Grizzlies37162143%115.2116.6-1.4
22 Dallas Mavericks37142338%113.1116.9-3.8
23 Los Angeles Clippers36132336%112.1114.4-2.4
24 Charlotte Hornets37132435%115.5117.3-1.8
25 Utah Jazz36122433%119.8127.1-7.3
26 Brooklyn Nets34112332%109.3114.0-4.7
27 Washington Wizards36102628%113.5124.2-10.7
28 Sacramento Kings3782922%109.9121.6-11.7
29 New Orleans Pelicans3983121%114.5122.7-8.2
30 Indiana Pacers3763116%110.8119.7-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Golden State Warriors31333422120
Milwaukee Bucks31222931113
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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