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Gorica vs Kastela Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 14:00
Final 79-89
24-23 16-12 19-30 20-24
Position#5
Record-
FormLWWWW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Gorica
Croatia
vs
Kastela 🏆
Croatia
Position#2
Record-
FormLWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
CroatiaPrva LigaRound 1· GSD Velika Gorica
Other2025-26
Meetings · Gorica v Kastela
11 Oct 2025
GORI79
KAST89
12 Apr 2025
GORI116
KAST109
25 Nov 2023
GORI89
KAST67
06 Feb 2016
GORI98
KAST66
12 May 2015
GORI87
KAST79
22 Nov 2014
GORI109
KAST77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gorica winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Kastela winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

GoricaCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGorica
Date
Competition
KK Zagreb
#8
L
78-81
78
81
-3
68avg 77
H22/02
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
L
83-88
83
88
-5
74avg 77
A01/03
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#11
W
87-60
87
60
+27
86avg 77
H08/03
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#9
L
75-82
75
82
-7
71avg 77
A15/03
Prva Liga
Omis
#10
W
74-58
74
58
+16
67avg 77
H22/03
Prva Liga
Samobor
#1
L
82-109
82
109
-27
70avg 77
H02/04
Prva Liga
Bosco
#13
W
93-89
93
89
+4
97avg 77
H05/04
Prva Liga
Kastela
#3
W
116-109 OT
116
109
+7
116avg 77
H12/04
Prva Liga
Skrljevo
#4
W
86-85
86
85
+1
87avg 77
A16/04
Prva Liga
Hidria
#33
W
102-66
102
66
+36
no box
H07/10
Slovenian Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-20
17-16
20-22
16-23
23-19
24-24
14-24
22-21
34-11
20-15
16-24
17-10
14-26
28-13
14-26
19-17
18-20
14-16
23-9
19-13
21-26
24-34
19-30
18-19
22-23
14-21
27-24
30-21
18-21
30-30
22-21
21-19
24-24
23-19
21-18
18-24
34-17
33-9
13-19
22-21
170.3Avg total
87.6Scored
82.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)87.682.7170.3+4.960%
Last 5 (5)95.891.6187.4+4.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)82.895.2177.9-12.433%
vs Similar (8)81.581.9163.4-0.450%
vs Weaker (8)78.870.9149.6+7.975%
This opponent (Kastela) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KastelaCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKastela
Date
Competition
Dakovo
#12
W
108-74
108
74
+34
112avg 83
H08/03
Prva Liga
Samobor
#1
L
83-95
83
95
-12
71avg 83
A16/03
Prva Liga
Hermes
#14
W
79-71
79
71
+8
69avg 83
A23/03
Prva Liga
Bosco
#13
W
87-72
87
72
+15
88avg 83
A29/03
Prva Liga
KK Zagreb
#8
W
91-89
91
89
+2
93avg 83
H06/04
Prva Liga
Gorica
#7
L
109-116 OT
109
116
-7
109avg 83
A12/04
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
W
87-66
87
66
+21
83avg 83
H16/04
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
L
64-72
64
72
-8
60avg 83
A24/04
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
W
89-62
89
62
+27
92avg 83
H27/04
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
L
67-71
67
71
-4
64avg 83
A30/04
Prva Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-21
28-20
26-12
26-21
14-25
25-35
23-16
21-19
19-12
15-25
20-17
25-17
20-16
22-29
20-16
25-11
27-19
27-19
14-26
23-25
21-18
30-30
21-22
19-21
27-19
24-16
22-20
14-11
18-18
9-12
24-26
13-16
24-27
23-12
22-12
20-11
18-14
14-27
16-10
19-20
165.2Avg total
86.4Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)86.478.8165.2+7.660%
Last 5 (5)83.277.4160.6+5.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)49.077.0126.0-28.00%
vs Similar (3)89.078.7167.7+10.367%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)86.074.2160.2+11.768%
This opponent (Gorica) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.6+2.6Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: -0.8-0.8Q3Q3: -2.8-2.8Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: +3.3+3.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.6+2.6Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: -0.8-0.8Q3Q3: -2.8-2.8Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: +3.3+3.3
GoricaKastela
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
GoricaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
KK Zagreb
#8
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H22/02
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
W
47-43
47
43
+4
A01/03
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#11
W
54-26
54
26
+28
H08/03
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#9
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A15/03
Prva Liga
Omis
#10
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H22/03
Prva Liga
Samobor
#1
L
45-60
45
60
-15
H02/04
Prva Liga
Bosco
#13
L
36-44
36
44
-8
H05/04
Prva Liga
Kastela
#3
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H12/04
Prva Liga
Skrljevo
#4
W
47-43
47
43
+4
A16/04
Prva Liga
Hidria
#33
W
67-26
67
26
+41
H07/10
Slovenian Cup
86.4Avg total
46.0Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.240.781.8+0.553%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.041.885.8+2.244%-
Last 30 away (14)37.939.477.4-1.564%-
Last 10 (10)46.040.486.4+5.660%-
Last 5 (5)48.644.893.4+3.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)39.245.885.0-6.733%-
vs Similar (8)39.939.279.1+0.662%-
vs Weaker (8)42.135.177.2+7.075%-
This opponent (Kastela) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KastelaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dakovo
#12
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H08/03
Prva Liga
Samobor
#1
L
39-60
39
60
-21
A16/03
Prva Liga
Hermes
#14
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A23/03
Prva Liga
Bosco
#13
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A29/03
Prva Liga
KK Zagreb
#8
W
54-38
54
38
+16
H06/04
Prva Liga
Gorica
#7
W
51-48
51
48
+3
A12/04
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
W
51-35
51
35
+16
H16/04
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A24/04
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H27/04
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A30/04
Prva Liga
84.7Avg total
43.3Scored
41.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.537.579.0+3.953%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.236.179.3+7.162%-
Last 30 away (14)39.539.178.6+0.443%-
Last 10 (10)43.341.484.7+1.950%-
Last 5 (5)41.638.680.2+3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)20.039.059.0-19.00%-
vs Similar (3)40.047.087.0-7.033%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)42.336.378.6+6.056%-
This opponent (Gorica) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Goricatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gorica: 83.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.1 points a game
51%
33%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.319.6
49.9%
53.0%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.010.5
38.9%
32.7%31.5
🏀 Free throws16.312.5
76.7%
71.6%12.5
They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Kastelatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Kastela: 85.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.2 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.1 points a game
51%
33%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.717.1
49.3%
53.0%34.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.512.6
41.3%
32.7%37.8
🏀 Free throws18.713.2
70.6%
71.6%13.2
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Gorica
WWWWLWLWLL
Kastela
LWLWLWWWLW
#5
League position
#2
+1.6
Net rating
+9.1
105.5
Offensive rating
110.7
103.9
Defensive rating
101.6
53.3%
Effective FG%
55.2%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
50.8%
19.6%
Turnover %
16.0%
27.5%
Off. rebound %
25.3%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.29
38.9%
3-point %
41.3%
63.1%
Assist %
78.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence105.5 · 110.7Defence103.9 · 101.6Shooting53.3% · 55.2%3-point %38.9% · 41.3%Ball care19.6% · 16.0%Off. rebounds27.5% · 25.3%Free throws0.25 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Gorica   ■ Kastela
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Gorica wins
1
Kastela wins
DateGameScore
12/04/25Gorica v Kastela116-109 OT
11/01/25Kastela v Gorica78-80
03/03/24Kastela v Gorica61-67
25/11/23Gorica v Kastela89-67
06/02/16Gorica v Kastela98-66
28/10/15Kastela v Gorica72-99
12/05/15Gorica v Kastela87-79
21/04/15Kastela v Gorica97-92
28/02/15Kastela v Gorica97-105
22/11/14Gorica v Kastela109-77
Goricalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/10/25HHidria102-66
16/04/25ASkrljevo86-85
12/04/25HKastela116-109 OT
05/04/25HBosco93-89
02/04/25HSamobor82-109
22/03/25HOmis74-58
15/03/25ASonik Puntamika75-82
08/03/25HCrikvenica87-60
01/03/25AMladost83-88
22/02/25HKK Zagreb78-81
Kastelalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/04/25AMladost67-71
27/04/25HMladost89-62
24/04/25AMladost64-72
16/04/25HMladost87-66
12/04/25AGorica109-116 OT
06/04/25HKK Zagreb91-89
29/03/25ABosco87-72
23/03/25AHermes79-71
16/03/25ASamobor83-95
08/03/25HDakovo108-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Gorica
Prva Liga 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Kastela
Prva Liga 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

No league table for this competition yet.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Gorica2416192079
Kastela2312302489
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