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Gorica vs Kastela Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 25 Nov 2023
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 89-67
19-22 25-13 19-21 26-11
Position#4
Record5-2
FormWLLWW
Points / game80.7
Allowed / game72.1
Gorica 🏆
Croatia
vs
Position#6
Record4-3
FormLLWWW
Points / game86.1
Allowed / game77.3
CroatiaPrva LigaRound 8· GSD Velika Gorica
Other2023-24
Meetings · Gorica v Kastela
11 Oct 2025
GORI79
KAST89
12 Apr 2025
GORI116
KAST109
25 Nov 2023
GORI89
KAST67
06 Feb 2016
GORI98
KAST66
12 May 2015
GORI87
KAST79
22 Nov 2014
GORI109
KAST77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gorica winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Kastela winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

GoricaCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGorica
Date
Competition
Skrljevo
#9
L
83-90
83
90
-7
no box
H30/04
Premijer liga
Dinamo Zagreb
#6
L
73-79
73
79
-6
no box
A07/05
Premijer liga
Marsonia
#9
W
80-60
80
60
+20
80avg 78
A08/10
Prva Liga
KK Zagreb
#3
L
61-78
61
78
-17
53avg 78
H14/10
Prva Liga
Jazine
#7
W
83-67
83
67
+16
75avg 78
A22/10
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#12
W
83-66
83
66
+17
78avg 78
H28/10
Prva Liga
LTH Castings
#3
L
44-100
44
100
-56
no box
H30/10
Slovenian Cup
Osijek
#2
L
77-84 OT
77
84
-7
no box
A04/11
Prva Liga
Hermes
#8
W
99-87
99
87
+12
95avg 78
H11/11
Prva Liga
Mladost
#11
W
82-63
82
63
+19
85avg 78
A19/11
Prva Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-25
14-23
25-21
20-21
19-16
17-15
17-15
20-33
19-21
21-8
16-13
24-18
18-9
19-21
14-23
10-25
17-12
30-18
15-17
21-20
25-7
23-9
22-27
13-23
12-28
10-26
12-23
10-23
21-19
22-6
9-18
12-21
18-35
21-16
23-17
37-19
17-11
16-23
24-9
25-20
153.9Avg total
76.5Scored
77.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)80.772.1152.9+8.671%
Season at home (3)81.077.0158.0+4.067%
Season away (4)80.568.5149.0+12.075%
Last 10 (10)76.577.4153.9-0.950%
Last 5 (5)77.080.0157.0-3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)74.889.1163.9-14.311%
vs Similar ◀ (16)82.180.5162.6+1.656%
vs Weaker (4)86.069.0155.0+17.0100%
This opponent (Kastela) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KastelaCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKastela
Date
Competition
Dubrovnik
#1
L
74-91
74
91
-17
no box
H17/05
Prva Liga
Zabok
#10
L
70-83
70
83
-13
no box
H24/05
Premijer liga
Zabok
#10
W
91-86
91
86
+5
no box
A27/05
Premijer liga
Jazine
#7
L
89-90
89
90
-1
74avg 82
A08/10
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#12
W
85-72
85
72
+13
76avg 82
H15/10
Prva Liga
Osijek
#2
L
74-79
74
79
-5
73avg 82
H21/10
Prva Liga
Hermes
#8
L
80-86
80
86
-6
73avg 82
H28/10
Prva Liga
Mladost
#11
W
98-76
98
76
+22
98avg 82
A04/11
Prva Liga
Samobor
#5
W
89-52
89
52
+37
95avg 82
A11/11
Prva Liga
Stoja
#13
W
88-86
88
86
+2
88avg 82
H18/11
Prva Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-16
14-25
24-22
22-28
18-21
15-14
20-29
17-19
14-23
27-20
23-19
27-24
20-26
34-20
22-20
13-24
20-20
25-20
18-14
22-18
20-21
24-23
16-17
14-18
32-21
18-19
13-21
17-25
23-30
22-17
25-14
28-15
30-8
25-1
17-21
17-22
22-27
25-19
11-16
30-24
163.9Avg total
83.8Scored
80.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)86.177.3163.4+8.957%
Season at home (4)81.880.8162.5+1.050%
Season away (3)92.072.7164.7+19.367%
Last 10 (10)83.880.1163.9+3.750%
Last 5 (5)85.875.8161.6+10.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)72.277.0149.2-4.838%
vs Similar ◀ (7)82.476.4158.9+6.057%
vs Weaker (15)82.871.5154.3+11.393%
This opponent (Gorica) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +5.1+5.1Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: -1.0-1.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +5.1+5.1Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: -1.0-1.0
GoricaKastela
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
GoricaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Skrljevo
#9
L
38-48
38
48
-10
H30/04
Premijer liga
Dinamo Zagreb
#6
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A07/05
Premijer liga
Marsonia
#9
W
40-29
40
29
+11
A08/10
Prva Liga
KK Zagreb
#3
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H14/10
Prva Liga
Jazine
#7
W
47-30
47
30
+17
A22/10
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#12
W
48-16
48
16
+32
H28/10
Prva Liga
LTH Castings
#3
L
22-54
22
54
-32
H30/10
Slovenian Cup
Osijek
#2
W
43-25
43
25
+18
A04/11
Prva Liga
Hermes
#8
L
39-51
39
51
-12
H11/11
Prva Liga
Mladost
#11
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A19/11
Prva Liga
73.1Avg total
38.3Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.637.977.5+1.753%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.038.778.7+1.347%-
Last 30 away (15)39.237.076.2+2.260%-
Last 10 (10)38.334.873.1+3.560%-
Last 5 (5)37.036.073.0+1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)36.840.477.2-3.733%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)42.236.878.9+5.469%-
vs Weaker (4)40.032.572.5+7.550%-
This opponent (Kastela) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KastelaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dubrovnik
#1
L
28-41
28
41
-13
H17/05
Prva Liga
Zabok
#10
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H24/05
Premijer liga
Zabok
#10
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A27/05
Premijer liga
Jazine
#7
W
54-46
54
46
+8
A08/10
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#12
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H15/10
Prva Liga
Osijek
#2
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H21/10
Prva Liga
Hermes
#8
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H28/10
Prva Liga
Mladost
#11
L
45-47
45
47
-2
A04/11
Prva Liga
Samobor
#5
W
55-9
55
9
+46
A11/11
Prva Liga
Stoja
#13
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H18/11
Prva Liga
83.3Avg total
44.2Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.937.177.0+2.957%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.835.875.6+4.175%-
Last 30 away (14)40.138.678.6+1.536%-
Last 10 (10)44.239.183.3+5.150%-
Last 5 (5)48.237.285.4+11.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)33.138.571.6-5.412%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)42.135.077.1+7.157%-
vs Weaker (15)42.537.379.8+5.380%-
This opponent (Gorica) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Goricatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gorica: 80.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.7 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.0 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.4 points a game
53%
32%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.022.8
57.1%
52.9%45.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.27.7
28.2%
32.9%23.0
🏀 Free throws17.511.8
67.6%
71.2%11.8
They take 67.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Kastelatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Kastela: 85.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.7 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.4 points a game
53%
32%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.421.3
56.9%
52.9%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.010.7
34.6%
32.9%32.1
🏀 Free throws14.010.7
76.5%
71.2%10.7
They take 68.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 6/7 games with a box score before 25 Nov 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Gorica
WWLLWWLWLL
Kastela
WWWLLWLWLL
#4
League position
#6
+14.5
Net rating
+8.8
106.4
Offensive rating
110.0
91.9
Defensive rating
101.1
51.1%
Effective FG%
54.6%
44.4%
Opp. effective FG%
50.0%
17.4%
Turnover %
16.4%
33.0%
Off. rebound %
25.7%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.20
28.2%
3-point %
34.6%
66.7%
Assist %
70.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence106.4 · 110.0Defence91.9 · 101.1Shooting51.1% · 54.6%3-point %28.2% · 34.6%Ball care17.4% · 16.4%Off. rebounds33.0% · 25.7%Free throws0.26 · 0.20Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Gorica   ■ Kastela
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Gorica wins
1
Kastela wins
DateGameScore
06/02/16Gorica v Kastela98-66
28/10/15Kastela v Gorica72-99
12/05/15Gorica v Kastela87-79
21/04/15Kastela v Gorica97-92
28/02/15Kastela v Gorica97-105
22/11/14Gorica v Kastela109-77
Goricalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/11/23AMladost82-63
11/11/23HHermes99-87
04/11/23AOsijek77-84 OT
30/10/23HLTH Castings44-100
28/10/23HCrikvenica83-66
22/10/23AJazine83-67
14/10/23HKK Zagreb61-78
08/10/23AMarsonia80-60
07/05/23ADinamo Zagreb73-79
30/04/23HSkrljevo83-90
Kastelalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/11/23HStoja88-86
11/11/23ASamobor89-52
04/11/23AMladost98-76
28/10/23HHermes80-86
21/10/23HOsijek74-79
15/10/23HCrikvenica85-72
08/10/23AJazine89-90
27/05/23AZabok91-86
24/05/23HZabok70-83
17/05/23HDubrovnik74-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Gorica
Prva Liga 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW71%
HomeLWW67%
AwayWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %71%67%75%
Points / game80.781.080.5
Allowed / game72.177.068.5
Point differential+8.6+4.0+12.0
Avg total152.9158.0149.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%67%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %14%0%25%
Kastela
Prva Liga 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW57%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %57%50%67%
Points / game86.181.892.0
Allowed / game77.380.872.7
Point differential+8.9+1.0+19.3
Avg total163.4162.5164.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%25%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kvarner87188%94.978.5+16.4
2 KK Zagreb76186%82.066.6+15.4
3 Osijek76186%87.976.1+11.7
4 Gorica75271%80.772.1+8.6
5 Omis85362%77.977.2+0.6
6 Kastela74357%86.177.3+8.9
7 Hermes84450%88.488.8-0.4
8 Jazine63350%91.597.8-6.3
9 Samobor73443%74.482.9-8.4
10 Crikvenica72529%72.385.4-13.1
11 Mladost82625%79.886.6-6.9
12 Podstrana61517%73.087.2-14.2
13 Marsonia71614%80.387.1-6.9
14 Stoja71614%83.393.0-9.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Gorica1925192689
Kastela2213211167
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