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Hamburg vs Bayern Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 11 Apr 2027
Tip-off: 16:00
Scheduled
Position#18
Record1-6
FormLLLLL
Points / game81.1
Allowed / game92.3
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
4.6/10
Around normal
Position#1
Record6-1
FormLLLWW
Points / game96.3
Allowed / game69.7
GermanyBBLRound 29· Inselpark Arena
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Hamburg v Bayern
11 Apr 2027
HAM v BAY
upcoming
29 Mar 2026
HAM96
BAY81
20 Apr 2025
HAM74
BAY70
24 Mar 2024
HAM80
BAY81
22 Oct 2022
HAM81
BAY78
24 Apr 2022
HAM87
BAY83
27 Mar 2021
HAM91
BAY86
26 Apr 2020
HAM v BAY
upcoming
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hamburg win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Bayern win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

HamburgGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHamburg
Date
Competition
Bamberg
#2
L
71-85
71
85
-14
60avg 64
A03/05
BBL
Wurzburg
#5
L
73-90
73
90
-17
59avg 64
H07/05
BBL
Rostock
#8
L
71-103
71
103
-32
33avg 64
A10/05
BBL
Bonn
#7
L
72-96
72
96
-24
63avg 64
A19/09
BBL
Chemnitz
#16
W
94-90 OT
94
90
+4
76avg 64
H25/09
BBL
Oldenburg
#11
L
74-75
74
75
-1
66avg 64
A27/09
BBL
Rostock
#6
L
84-91
84
91
-7
71avg 64
H03/10
BBL
Frankfurt
#4
L
78-89
78
89
-11
63avg 64
A11/10
BBL
Bayern
#1
L
77-96
77
96
-19
60avg 64
A25/10
BBL
Syntainics MBC
#3
L
89-109
89
109
-20
no box
H01/11
BBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-29
27-18
17-22
12-16
14-22
21-26
21-20
17-22
13-27
20-28
17-31
21-17
15-25
19-20
20-29
18-22
22-22
20-21
15-17
26-23
19-8
27-15
12-28
16-24
13-21
19-25
19-21
33-24
24-27
19-15
19-26
16-21
23-27
18-15
12-29
24-25
24-25
25-29
14-27
26-28
170.7Avg total
78.3Scored
92.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)81.192.3173.4-11.114%
Season at home (3)89.096.7185.7-7.733%
Season away (4)75.289.0164.2-13.80%
Last 10 (10)78.392.4170.7-14.110%
Last 5 (5)80.492.0172.4-11.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)83.192.7175.8-9.628%
vs Similar (9)87.980.9168.8+7.056%
vs Weaker (3)87.791.0178.7-3.333%
This opponent (Bayern) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayernGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBayern
Date
Competition
Chemnitz
#16
W
87-83
87
83
+4
77avg 84
A10/10
BBL
Anadolu Efes
#12
W
101-93
101
93
+8
96avg 84
A14/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#13
L
87-95
87
95
-8
88avg 84
A16/10
Euroleague
Dubai
#6
L
91-107
91
107
-16
86avg 84
H22/10
Euroleague
Hamburg
#18
W
96-77
96
77
+19
102avg 84
H25/10
BBL
Barcelona
#7
L
84-88
84
88
-4
75avg 84
H27/10
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#2
L
73-103
73
103
-30
65avg 84
A29/10
Euroleague
Rostock
#6
L
67-69
67
69
-2
no box
A01/11
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#14
W
108-66
108
66
+42
no box
H03/11
BBL
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
99-95
99
95
+4
no box
A05/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-25
24-25
22-12
20-21
26-22
28-24
21-22
26-25
17-26
18-27
23-16
29-26
14-29
22-34
31-19
24-25
27-23
15-18
29-12
25-24
17-21
25-20
19-23
23-24
15-19
16-29
23-31
19-24
15-24
25-14
13-12
14-19
22-18
35-20
28-17
23-11
20-21
25-24
28-21
26-29
176.9Avg total
89.3Scored
87.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)96.369.7166.0+26.686%
Season at home (5)104.067.2171.2+36.8100%
Season away (2)77.076.0153.0+1.050%
Last 10 (10)89.387.6176.9+1.750%
Last 5 (5)86.284.2170.4+2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)85.294.5179.8-9.225%
vs Similar (2)93.094.5187.5-1.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)89.773.1162.8+16.680%
This opponent (Hamburg) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -5.1-5.1Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -8.4-8.4Q3: +5.2+5.2Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +0.1+0.1
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -5.1-5.1Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -8.4-8.4Q3: +5.2+5.2Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +0.1+0.1
HamburgBayern
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
HamburgLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bamberg
#2
L
42-47
42
47
-5
A03/05
BBL
Wurzburg
#5
L
35-48
35
48
-13
H07/05
BBL
Rostock
#8
L
33-55
33
55
-22
A10/05
BBL
Bonn
#7
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A19/09
BBL
Chemnitz
#16
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H25/09
BBL
Oldenburg
#11
W
46-23
46
23
+23
A27/09
BBL
Rostock
#6
L
32-46
32
46
-14
H03/10
BBL
Frankfurt
#4
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A11/10
BBL
Bayern
#1
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A25/10
BBL
Syntainics MBC
#3
L
49-54
49
54
-5
H01/11
BBL
84.2Avg total
39.7Scored
44.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.445.487.8-3.037%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.446.589.9-3.144%-
Last 30 away (14)41.244.185.4-2.929%-
Last 10 (10)39.744.584.2-4.820%-
Last 5 (5)42.241.483.6+0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)40.446.186.6-5.728%-
vs Similar (9)45.342.487.8+2.956%-
vs Weaker (3)45.350.095.3-4.733%-
This opponent (Bayern) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayernLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chemnitz
#16
L
45-50
45
50
-5
A10/10
BBL
Anadolu Efes
#12
W
54-46
54
46
+8
A14/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#13
L
35-53
35
53
-18
A16/10
Euroleague
Dubai
#6
L
36-63
36
63
-27
H22/10
Euroleague
Hamburg
#18
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H25/10
BBL
Barcelona
#7
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H27/10
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#2
L
31-48
31
48
-17
A29/10
Euroleague
Rostock
#6
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A01/11
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#14
W
57-38
57
38
+19
H03/11
BBL
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A05/11
Euroleague
89.0Avg total
42.7Scored
46.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.740.385.0+4.573%-
Last 30 at home (17)46.138.884.9+7.382%-
Last 30 away (13)42.942.285.1+0.862%-
Last 10 (10)42.746.389.0-3.650%-
Last 5 (5)43.042.085.0+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)40.048.288.2-8.250%-
vs Similar (2)44.048.592.5-4.50%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)46.736.283.0+10.590%-
This opponent (Hamburg) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Hamburgtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Hamburg: 73.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.3 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.916.9
48.4%
55.6%33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.58.5
27.0%
33.3%25.5
🏀 Free throws18.813.9
73.9%
73.4%13.9
They take 66.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bayerntheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bayern: 90.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.3 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.222.2
58.1%
55.6%44.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.29.9
37.8%
33.3%29.7
🏀 Free throws19.816.2
81.8%
73.4%16.2
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Apr 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Hamburg
LLLLLWLLLL
Bayern
WWLLLWLLWW
#18
League position
#1
-14.6
Net rating
+2.0
83.5
Offensive rating
103.8
98.1
Defensive rating
101.8
44.7%
Effective FG%
57.5%
54.2%
Opp. effective FG%
56.3%
15.0%
Turnover %
16.1%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.31
27.0%
3-point %
37.8%
56.7%
Assist %
65.1%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence83.5 · 103.8Defence98.1 · 101.8Shooting44.7% · 57.5%3-point %27.0% · 37.8%Ball care15.0% · 16.1%Free throws0.28 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)10% · 50%
■ Hamburg   ■ Bayern
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Hamburg wins
5
Bayern wins
DateGameScore
25/10/26Bayern v Hamburg96-77
29/03/26Hamburg v Bayern96-81
05/10/25Bayern v Hamburg96-79
20/04/25Hamburg v Bayern74-70
29/09/24Bayern v Hamburg81-80
24/03/24Hamburg v Bayern80-81 OT
08/10/23Bayern v Hamburg90-79
14/02/23Bayern v Hamburg70-89
22/10/22Hamburg v Bayern81-78 OT
24/04/22Hamburg v Bayern87-83
Hamburglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/26HSyntainics MBC89-109
25/10/26ABayern77-96
11/10/26AFrankfurt78-89
03/10/26HRostock84-91
27/09/26AOldenburg74-75
25/09/26HChemnitz94-90 OT
19/09/26ABonn72-96
10/05/26ARostock71-103
07/05/26HWurzburg73-90
03/05/26ABamberg71-85
Bayernlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/26ALyon-Villeurbanne99-95
03/11/26HBasketball Braunschweig108-66
01/11/26ARostock67-69
29/10/26ACrvena zvezda73-103
27/10/26HBarcelona84-88
25/10/26HHamburg96-77
22/10/26HDubai91-107
16/10/26ABesiktas87-95
14/10/26AAnadolu Efes101-93
10/10/26AChemnitz87-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Hamburg
BBL 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL14%
HomeWLL33%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %14%33%0%
Points / game81.189.075.2
Allowed / game92.396.789.0
Point differential-11.1-7.7-13.8
Avg total173.4185.7164.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %14%33%0%
Bayern
BBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW86%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games752
Win %86%100%50%
Points / game96.3104.077.0
Allowed / game69.767.276.0
Point differential+26.6+36.8+1.0
Avg total166.0171.2153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bayern76186%96.369.7+26.6
2 Trier76186%98.486.1+12.3
3 Syntainics MBC86275%86.680.1+6.5
4 Frankfurt64267%87.383.3+4.0
5 Wurzburg64267%82.880.2+2.7
6 Rostock85362%89.882.4+7.4
7 Bonn85362%88.082.5+5.5
8 Ludwigsburg74357%87.187.7-0.6
9 Bamberg84450%86.985.8+1.1
10 Alba Berlin84450%86.287.8-1.5
11 Oldenburg73443%74.483.4-9.0
12 Ulm83538%82.586.4-3.9
13 Vechta83538%86.290.8-4.5
14 Basketball Braunschweig83538%86.096.5-10.5
15 Jena72529%76.688.3-11.7
16 Chemnitz82625%87.190.0-2.9
17 Phoenix Hagen82625%84.091.9-7.9
18 Hamburg71614%81.192.3-11.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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