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Holbaek-Stenhus vs Vaerlose Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 21 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 18:00
Scheduled
Position#7
Record5-6
FormWLWLW
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game86.2
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.8/10
Above normal
4.9/10
Around normal
Position#11
Record2-9
FormLWLLL
Points / game77.8
Allowed / game91.2
DenmarkBasketligaen· Holbaek Sportsby
Other2026-27
Meetings · Holbaek-Stenhus v Vaerlose
21 Jan 2027
HOLB v VAER
upcoming
23 Apr 2026
HOLB83
VAER89
23 Sep 2025
HOLB81
VAER88
03 Mar 2025
HOLB98
VAER77
13 Feb 2025
HOLB104
VAER82
16 Nov 2023
HOLB70
VAER78
11 Mar 2023
HOLB62
VAER84
27 Nov 2022
HOLB75
VAER85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Holbaek-Stenhus win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Vaerlose win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Holbaek-StenhusDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHolbaek-Stenhus
Date
Competition
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
56-117
56
117
-61
40avg 72
A24/09
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
75-86
75
86
-11
61avg 72
A26/09
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
W
80-77
80
77
+3
74avg 72
H01/10
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#10
W
88-67
88
67
+21
86avg 72
H10/10
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
83-97
83
97
-14
71avg 72
A15/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#11
W
68-64
68
64
+4
60avg 72
A24/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
75-105
75
105
-30
60avg 72
H30/10
Basketligaen
Gladsaxe
#8
W
84-81
84
81
+3
no box
A04/11
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
78-80
78
80
-2
no box
A06/11
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#6
W
89-74
89
74
+15
no box
H13/11
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-27
10-32
10-27
15-31
29-20
20-22
16-22
10-22
21-26
16-12
25-16
18-23
15-14
24-21
21-14
28-18
18-23
24-43
0-0
41-31
11-10
29-14
17-19
11-21
8-29
23-18
29-27
15-31
24-18
19-24
21-19
20-20
18-18
19-17
24-27
17-18
26-17
15-16
19-19
29-22
162.4Avg total
77.6Scored
84.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)78.286.2164.4-8.045%
Season at home (5)83.284.6167.8-1.460%
Season away (6)74.087.5161.5-13.533%
Last 10 (10)77.684.8162.4-7.250%
Last 5 (5)78.880.8159.6-2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)77.4100.4177.9-23.014%
vs Similar (13)88.884.4173.2+4.454%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)75.373.7149.0+1.767%
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VaerloseDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVaerlose
Date
Competition
Copenhagen
#6
L
74-88
74
88
-14
58avg 76
A22/09
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
85-89 OT
85
89
-4
62avg 76
H27/09
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
79-99
79
99
-20
74avg 76
A02/10
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
80-92
80
92
-12
70avg 76
A08/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
82-123
82
123
-41
71avg 76
H18/10
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
64-68
64
68
-4
55avg 76
H24/10
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
W
107-99 OT
107
99
+8
101avg 76
A30/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
62-95
62
95
-33
no box
H04/11
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
59-86
59
86
-27
no box
A08/11
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#10
L
76-86
76
86
-10
no box
H14/11
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-16
19-23
14-24
21-25
16-13
20-23
14-25
23-12
25-20
16-26
21-21
17-32
20-25
25-19
18-28
17-20
23-31
18-25
19-33
22-34
10-11
14-29
19-17
21-11
23-25
25-24
17-17
24-23
22-16
8-21
14-27
18-31
16-26
15-24
17-18
11-18
16-25
28-27
16-15
16-19
169.3Avg total
76.8Scored
92.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)77.891.2169.0-13.418%
Season at home (5)73.892.2166.0-18.40%
Season away (6)81.290.3171.5-9.233%
Last 10 (10)76.892.5169.3-15.710%
Last 5 (5)73.686.8160.4-13.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)72.594.8167.4-22.38%
vs Similar (14)86.186.3172.4-0.264%
vs Weaker (3)87.096.0183.0-9.033%
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: -5.3-5.3Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: -5.6-5.6Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: -3.5-3.5
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: -5.3-5.3Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: -5.6-5.6Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: -3.5-3.5
Holbaek-StenhusVaerlose
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Holbaek-StenhusLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
31-59
31
59
-28
A24/09
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A26/09
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H01/10
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#10
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H10/10
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
42-66
42
66
-24
A15/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#11
W
40-24
40
24
+16
A24/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
31-47
31
47
-16
H30/10
Basketligaen
Gladsaxe
#8
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A04/11
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A06/11
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#6
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H13/11
Basketligaen
81.1Avg total
39.0Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.044.785.7-3.743%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.844.886.6-3.043%-
Last 30 away (16)40.344.785.0-4.444%-
Last 10 (10)39.042.181.1-3.160%-
Last 5 (5)38.436.274.6+2.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)41.150.291.3-9.129%-
vs Similar (13)41.641.783.3-0.154%-
vs Weaker ◀ (3)38.032.370.3+5.767%-
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VaerloseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Copenhagen
#6
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A22/09
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H27/09
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A02/10
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A08/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
41-56
41
56
-15
H18/10
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
24-40
24
40
-16
H24/10
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
L
48-49
48
49
-1
A30/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
30-37
30
37
-7
H04/11
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
31-50
31
50
-19
A08/11
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#10
L
44-52
44
52
-8
H14/11
Basketligaen
82.8Avg total
37.9Scored
44.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.646.084.6-7.423%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.045.982.9-8.920%-
Last 30 away (15)40.246.186.3-5.927%-
Last 10 (10)37.944.982.8-7.010%-
Last 5 (5)35.445.681.0-10.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)35.347.382.6-12.00%-
vs Similar (14)40.644.184.8-3.543%-
vs Weaker (3)43.349.092.3-5.733%-
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Holbaek-Stenhustheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Holbaek-Stenhus: 79.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.421.5
51.9%
55.2%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.68.1
34.3%
31.2%24.3
🏀 Free throws18.911.8
62.4%
68.0%11.8
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Vaerlosetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vaerlose: 81.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.621.3
53.8%
55.2%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.78.5
29.6%
31.2%25.5
🏀 Free throws21.713.7
63.1%
68.0%13.7
They take 68.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Holbaek-Stenhus
WLWLWLWWLL
Vaerlose
LLLWLLLLLL
#7
League position
#11
-9.7
Net rating
-9.7
86.3
Offensive rating
86.1
96.0
Defensive rating
95.7
51.8%
Effective FG%
49.9%
55.1%
Opp. effective FG%
56.3%
20.4%
Turnover %
17.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.32
34.3%
3-point %
29.6%
44.9%
Assist %
61.7%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence86.3 · 86.1Defence96.0 · 95.7Shooting51.8% · 49.9%3-point %34.3% · 29.6%Ball care20.4% · 17.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)50% · 10%
■ Holbaek-Stenhus   ■ Vaerlose
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Holbaek-Stenhus wins
6
Vaerlose wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HCopenhagen89-74
06/11/26AVejen78-80
04/11/26AGladsaxe84-81
30/10/26HBakken Bears75-105
24/10/26AVaerlose68-64
15/10/26AHorsens83-97
10/10/26HBears Academy88-67
01/10/26HBMS Herlev80-77
26/09/26ASvendborg75-86
24/09/26ATeam FOG Naestved56-117
Vaerloselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HBears Academy76-86
08/11/26ASvendborg59-86
04/11/26HTeam FOG Naestved62-95
30/10/26ABMS Herlev107-99 OT
24/10/26HHolbaek-Stenhus64-68
18/10/26HBakken Bears82-123
08/10/26AVejen80-92
02/10/26AHorsens79-99
27/09/26HRanders85-89 OT
22/09/26ACopenhagen74-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Holbaek-Stenhus
Basketligaen 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW45%
HomeLWWLW60%
AwayLLWWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %45%60%33%
Points / game78.283.274.0
Allowed / game86.284.687.5
Point differential-8.0-1.4-13.5
Avg total164.4167.8161.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Vaerlose
Basketligaen 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL18%
HomeLLLLL0%
AwayLLLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %18%0%33%
Points / game77.873.881.2
Allowed / game91.292.290.3
Point differential-13.4-18.4-9.2
Avg total169.0166.0171.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%0%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %18%20%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Team FOG Naestved1110191%99.072.6+26.4
2 Bakken Bears98189%104.774.9+29.8
3 Horsens108280%89.277.6+11.6
4 Svendborg108280%90.679.7+10.9
5 Randers107370%95.686.0+9.6
6 Copenhagen105550%83.082.3+0.7
7 Holbaek-Stenhus115645%78.286.2-8.0
8 Gladsaxe103730%79.488.9-9.5
9 Vejen103730%78.996.8-17.9
10 Bears Academy112918%79.591.1-11.6
11 Vaerlose112918%77.891.2-13.4
12 BMS Herlev111109%74.497.0-22.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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