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Holbaek-Stenhus vs Vaerlose Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 23 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 83-89
12-24 23-23 26-19 22-23
Position#11
Record7-24
FormLWLLW
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game92.8
vs
Position#6
Record16-15
FormWLLWL
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game89.2
DenmarkBasketligaen· Holbaek Sportsby
Other2025-26
Meetings · Holbaek-Stenhus v Vaerlose
21 Jan 2027
HOLB v VAER
upcoming
23 Apr 2026
HOLB83
VAER89
23 Sep 2025
HOLB81
VAER88
03 Mar 2025
HOLB98
VAER77
13 Feb 2025
HOLB104
VAER82
16 Nov 2023
HOLB70
VAER78
11 Mar 2023
HOLB62
VAER84
27 Nov 2022
HOLB75
VAER85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Holbaek-Stenhus winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Vaerlose winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Holbaek-StenhusDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHolbaek-Stenhus
Date
Competition
Team FOG Naestved
#2
L
93-113
93
113
-20
71avg 70
A19/02
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
100-85
100
85
+15
96avg 70
H07/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
L
75-83
75
83
-8
57avg 70
H11/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
W
84-80
84
80
+4
77avg 70
A14/03
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
90-93
90
93
-3
80avg 70
H21/03
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#6
L
80-87
80
87
-7
65avg 70
A28/03
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#10
W
80-65
80
65
+15
no box
A01/04
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
L
86-98
86
98
-12
69avg 70
A08/04
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
85-101
85
101
-16
75avg 70
H12/04
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
W
103-83
103
83
+20
99avg 70
A17/04
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-29
20-30
20-30
25-24
22-12
30-22
25-23
23-28
18-14
17-18
22-24
18-27
20-27
23-13
18-24
23-16
18-12
15-30
32-27
25-24
24-23
13-20
21-15
22-29
16-24
24-18
14-9
26-14
23-21
18-27
28-17
17-33
20-23
32-21
18-27
15-30
24-25
19-25
29-20
31-13
176.4Avg total
87.6Scored
88.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)81.592.8174.3-11.423%
Season at home (15)82.593.2175.7-10.720%
Season away (16)80.492.4172.9-12.025%
Last 10 (10)87.688.8176.4-1.240%
Last 5 (5)86.886.8173.6+0.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)75.499.1174.5-23.86%
vs Similar ◀ (14)88.485.9174.4+2.543%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VaerloseDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVaerlose
Date
Competition
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
87-79
87
79
+8
87avg 72
A19/02
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
79-92
79
92
-13
74avg 72
H07/03
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
95-88
95
88
+7
87avg 72
A11/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
W
109-107 OT
109
107
+2
106avg 72
A14/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
W
85-80
85
80
+5
75avg 72
H21/03
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#11
W
87-80
87
80
+7
81avg 72
H28/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
61-75
61
75
-14
51avg 72
A31/03
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
83-86
83
86
-3
74avg 72
A08/04
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
W
96-90
96
90
+6
94avg 72
H12/04
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#10
L
74-97
74
97
-23
67avg 72
H19/04
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-15
18-19
18-26
28-19
20-22
20-25
20-25
19-20
19-27
15-23
22-22
39-16
26-35
15-15
26-21
26-22
22-26
13-26
29-15
21-13
23-24
20-13
15-21
29-22
26-21
12-24
15-17
8-13
18-22
25-27
18-24
22-13
23-19
21-24
24-22
28-25
23-27
14-27
19-21
18-22
173.0Avg total
85.6Scored
87.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)79.889.2169.1-9.452%
Season at home (16)80.688.5169.1-7.956%
Season away (15)79.090.0169.0-11.047%
Last 10 (10)85.687.4173.0-1.860%
Last 5 (5)80.285.6165.8-5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)69.698.8168.4-29.28%
vs Similar ◀ (16)86.682.9169.4+3.781%
vs Weaker (2)83.586.5170.0-3.050%
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -5.0-5.0Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: -0.8-0.8Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +5.3+5.3
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -5.0-5.0Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: -0.8-0.8Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +5.3+5.3
Holbaek-StenhusVaerlose
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Holbaek-StenhusLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Team FOG Naestved
#2
L
48-59
48
59
-11
A19/02
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
52-34
52
34
+18
H07/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H11/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A14/03
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H21/03
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#6
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A28/03
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#10
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A01/04
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A08/04
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
W
52-44
52
44
+8
H12/04
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A17/04
Basketligaen
85.8Avg total
42.4Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.246.786.9-6.433%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.546.486.9-5.943%-
Last 30 away (16)40.046.986.9-6.925%-
Last 10 (10)42.443.485.8-1.040%-
Last 5 (5)42.645.488.0-2.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)38.749.988.6-11.225%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)42.042.984.9-0.943%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VaerloseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
41-34
41
34
+7
A19/02
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
40-47
40
47
-7
H07/03
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A11/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
L
41-50
41
50
-9
A14/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
35-52
35
52
-17
H21/03
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#11
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H28/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A31/03
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
43-49
43
49
-6
A08/04
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H12/04
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#10
L
37-54
37
54
-17
H19/04
Basketligaen
85.7Avg total
39.6Scored
46.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.846.784.5-8.933%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.946.185.0-7.144%-
Last 30 away (14)36.547.483.9-10.921%-
Last 10 (10)39.646.185.7-6.530%-
Last 5 (5)41.045.686.6-4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)33.251.985.2-18.70%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)40.942.683.5-1.856%-
vs Weaker (2)40.548.088.5-7.550%-
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Holbaek-Stenhustheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Holbaek-Stenhus: 87.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.8 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.223.4
50.6%
54.6%46.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.39.1
33.3%
32.9%27.3
🏀 Free throws18.613.0
69.9%
70.1%13.0
They take 73.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Vaerlosetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vaerlose: 84.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.821.2
56.1%
54.6%42.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.58.1
34.5%
32.9%24.3
🏀 Free throws25.018.2
72.8%
70.1%18.2
They take 61.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Holbaek-Stenhus
WLLWLLWLWL
Vaerlose
LWLLWWWWLW
#11
League position
#6
-5.1
Net rating
-2.7
91.1
Offensive rating
91.2
96.2
Defensive rating
93.9
50.4%
Effective FG%
54.4%
54.5%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
15.6%
Turnover %
21.2%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.41
33.3%
3-point %
34.5%
46.5%
Assist %
58.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence91.1 · 91.2Defence96.2 · 93.9Shooting50.4% · 54.4%3-point %33.3% · 34.5%Ball care15.6% · 21.2%Free throws0.25 · 0.41Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Holbaek-Stenhus   ■ Vaerlose
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Holbaek-Stenhus wins
7
Vaerlose wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/04/26AVejen103-83
12/04/26HBears Academy85-101
08/04/26AAmager86-98
01/04/26ABMS Herlev80-65
28/03/26AVaerlose80-87
21/03/26HVejen90-93
14/03/26ABears Academy84-80
11/03/26HAmager75-83
07/03/26HHerlev Wolfpack100-85
19/02/26ATeam FOG Naestved93-113
Vaerloselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/04/26HBMS Herlev74-97
12/04/26HAmager96-90
08/04/26AVejen83-86
31/03/26ABears Academy61-75
28/03/26HHolbaek-Stenhus87-80
21/03/26HBears Academy85-80
14/03/26AAmager109-107 OT
11/03/26AHerlev Wolfpack95-88
07/03/26HVejen79-92
19/02/26AHerlev Wolfpack87-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Holbaek-Stenhus
Basketligaen 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW23%
HomeWWLLL20%
AwayWLWLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311516
Win %23%20%25%
Points / game81.582.580.4
Allowed / game92.893.292.4
Point differential-11.4-10.7-12.0
Avg total174.3175.7172.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%13%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won17% (6)0% (2)25% (4)
Overtime %3%0%6%
Vaerlose
Basketligaen 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL52%
HomeLWWWL56%
AwayWWWLL47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311615
Win %52%56%47%
Points / game79.880.679.0
Allowed / game89.288.590.0
Point differential-9.4-7.9-11.0
Avg total169.1169.1169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%6%13%
Close games (≤5 pts) won86% (7)100% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %3%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bakken Bears3226681%99.878.1+21.7
2 Team FOG Naestved3225778%102.890.4+12.3
3 Svendborg3223972%91.576.9+14.6
4 Horsens32221069%86.978.6+8.3
5 Randers32211166%93.685.8+7.8
6 Vaerlose31161552%79.889.2-9.4
7 Copenhagen32141844%86.387.2-0.9
8 Bears Academy32131941%83.490.5-7.1
9 Vejen32102231%79.990.4-10.4
10 BMS Herlev2151624%78.193.6-15.5
11 Holbaek-Stenhus3172423%81.592.8-11.4
12 Herlev Wolfpack102820%77.290.2-13.0
13 Amager3162519%83.095.3-12.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Holbaek-Stenhus1223262283
Vaerlose2423192389
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