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Vaerlose vs Holbaek-Stenhus Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Final 87-80
23-24 20-13 15-21 29-22
Position#6
Record14-12
FormWLWWW
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game89.9
Vaerlose 🏆
Denmark
vs
Holbaek-Stenhus
Denmark
Position#11
Record5-21
FormLWLWL
Points / game80.4
Allowed / game94.0
DenmarkBasketligaen· Sondersohallen
Other2025-26
Meetings · Vaerlose v Holbaek-Stenhus
24 Oct 2026
VAER64
HOLB68
28 Mar 2026
VAER87
HOLB80
29 Oct 2025
VAER87
HOLB83
31 Mar 2025
VAER100
HOLB98
07 Dec 2024
VAER88
HOLB90
17 Nov 2024
VAER100
HOLB86
15 Feb 2024
VAER99
HOLB80
12 Apr 2023
VAER104
HOLB60
16 Feb 2023
VAER90
HOLB68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vaerlose winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Holbaek-Stenhus winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VaerloseDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVaerlose
Date
Competition
Copenhagen
#7
W
76-75
76
75
+1
66avg 73
H09/01
Basketligaen
Randers
#4
L
73-103
73
103
-30
no box
H18/01
Basketligaen
Randers
#4
L
80-106
80
106
-26
74avg 73
A29/01
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
W
100-93
100
93
+7
99avg 73
H04/02
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#3
L
69-100
69
100
-31
54avg 73
A14/02
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
87-79
87
79
+8
87avg 73
A19/02
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
79-92
79
92
-13
74avg 73
H07/03
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
95-88
95
88
+7
87avg 73
A11/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
W
109-107 OT
109
107
+2
106avg 73
A14/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
W
85-80
85
80
+5
75avg 73
H21/03
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-22
19-20
21-17
20-16
18-31
19-29
19-28
17-15
23-18
22-34
19-25
16-29
27-19
18-21
25-24
30-29
16-28
17-28
19-23
17-21
23-15
18-19
18-26
28-19
20-22
20-25
20-25
19-20
19-27
15-23
22-22
39-16
26-35
15-15
26-21
26-22
22-26
13-26
29-15
21-13
177.6Avg total
85.3Scored
92.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)79.889.9169.7-10.254%
Season at home (13)79.588.4167.8-8.954%
Season away (13)80.191.5171.5-11.454%
Last 10 (10)85.392.3177.6-7.060%
Last 5 (5)91.089.2180.2+1.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)69.998.2168.1-28.28%
vs Similar ◀ (16)88.883.7172.4+5.188%
vs Weaker (1)93.076.0169.0+17.0100%
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Holbaek-StenhusDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHolbaek-Stenhus
Date
Competition
Svendborg
#3
L
42-103
42
103
-61
no box
A16/01
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
W
89-76
89
76
+13
80avg 71
A23/01
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
85-109
85
109
-24
70avg 71
H28/01
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
106-94
106
94
+12
92avg 71
H05/02
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
75-100
75
100
-25
60avg 71
A14/02
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#2
L
93-113
93
113
-20
71avg 71
A19/02
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
100-85
100
85
+15
96avg 71
H07/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
L
75-83
75
83
-8
57avg 71
H11/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
W
84-80
84
80
+4
77avg 71
A14/03
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
90-93
90
93
-3
80avg 71
H21/03
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-22
7-21
8-33
13-27
18-16
28-23
15-21
28-16
24-24
14-24
13-24
34-37
28-27
25-18
29-21
24-28
16-20
24-20
16-30
19-30
28-29
20-30
20-30
25-24
22-12
30-22
25-23
23-28
18-14
17-18
22-24
18-27
20-27
23-13
18-24
23-16
18-12
15-30
32-27
25-24
177.5Avg total
83.9Scored
93.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)80.494.0174.4-13.519%
Season at home (14)82.492.6175.0-10.321%
Season away (12)78.295.5173.7-17.317%
Last 10 (10)83.993.6177.5-9.740%
Last 5 (5)88.490.8179.2-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)78.398.6176.9-20.318%
vs Similar ◀ (12)88.085.9173.9+2.142%
vs Weaker (1)77.073.0150.0+4.0100%
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -3.3-3.3Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -6.4-6.4Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: -5.9-5.9Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: -2.5-2.5
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -3.3-3.3Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -6.4-6.4Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: -5.9-5.9Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: -2.5-2.5
VaerloseHolbaek-Stenhus
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VaerloseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Copenhagen
#7
L
35-42
35
42
-7
H09/01
Basketligaen
Randers
#4
L
37-60
37
60
-23
H18/01
Basketligaen
Randers
#4
L
45-52
45
52
-7
A29/01
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H04/02
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#3
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A14/02
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
41-34
41
34
+7
A19/02
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
40-47
40
47
-7
H07/03
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A11/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
L
41-50
41
50
-9
A14/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
35-52
35
52
-17
H21/03
Basketligaen
86.9Avg total
38.6Scored
48.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.846.685.4-7.937%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.946.787.6-5.747%-
Last 30 away (15)36.646.683.2-10.027%-
Last 10 (10)38.648.386.9-9.720%-
Last 5 (5)38.246.684.8-8.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)33.651.585.2-17.90%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)42.642.985.6-0.362%-
vs Weaker (1)44.042.086.0+2.0100%-
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Holbaek-StenhusLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Svendborg
#3
L
21-43
21
43
-22
A16/01
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A23/01
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
38-48
38
48
-10
H28/01
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
53-45
53
45
+8
H05/02
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A14/02
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#2
L
48-59
48
59
-11
A19/02
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#12
W
52-34
52
34
+18
H07/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#13
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H11/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A14/03
Basketligaen
Vejen
#9
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H21/03
Basketligaen
83.1Avg total
40.9Scored
42.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.646.887.4-6.237%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.146.586.6-6.435%-
Last 30 away (13)41.247.288.4-5.938%-
Last 10 (10)40.942.283.1-1.350%-
Last 5 (5)42.241.483.6+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)39.550.289.6-10.724%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)43.142.385.4+0.858%-
vs Weaker (1)30.042.072.0-12.00%-
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Vaerlosetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vaerlose: 84.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.419.9
54.7%
54.6%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.08.9
37.1%
32.9%26.7
🏀 Free throws25.818.0
69.8%
70.1%18.0
They take 60.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Holbaek-Stenhustheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Holbaek-Stenhus: 87.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.524.2
49.9%
54.6%48.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.39.0
34.2%
32.9%27.0
🏀 Free throws18.612.5
67.2%
70.1%12.5
They take 74.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Vaerlose
WWWLWLWLLW
Holbaek-Stenhus
LWLWLLWLWL
#6
League position
#11
-9.6
Net rating
-7.3
90.8
Offensive rating
90.7
100.4
Defensive rating
98.0
55.0%
Effective FG%
50.4%
54.4%
Opp. effective FG%
55.7%
21.7%
Turnover %
14.7%
0.43
Free-throw rate
0.25
37.1%
3-point %
34.2%
59.0%
Assist %
52.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence90.8 · 90.7Defence100.4 · 98.0Shooting55.0% · 50.4%3-point %37.1% · 34.2%Ball care21.7% · 14.7%Off. rebounds15.6% · -Free throws0.43 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Vaerlose   ■ Holbaek-Stenhus
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Vaerlose wins
3
Holbaek-Stenhus wins
DateGameScore
29/10/25Vaerlose v Holbaek-Stenhus87-83
23/09/25Holbaek-Stenhus v Vaerlose81-88
31/03/25Vaerlose v Holbaek-Stenhus100-98 OT
03/03/25Holbaek-Stenhus v Vaerlose98-77
13/02/25Holbaek-Stenhus v Vaerlose104-82
07/12/24Vaerlose v Holbaek-Stenhus88-90
17/11/24Vaerlose v Holbaek-Stenhus100-86
15/02/24Vaerlose v Holbaek-Stenhus99-80
16/11/23Holbaek-Stenhus v Vaerlose70-78
12/04/23Vaerlose v Holbaek-Stenhus104-60
Vaerloselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/03/26HBears Academy85-80
14/03/26AAmager109-107 OT
11/03/26AHerlev Wolfpack95-88
07/03/26HVejen79-92
19/02/26AHerlev Wolfpack87-79
14/02/26ASvendborg69-100
04/02/26HAmager100-93
29/01/26ARanders80-106
18/01/26HRanders73-103
09/01/26HCopenhagen76-75
Holbaek-Stenhuslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/03/26HVejen90-93
14/03/26ABears Academy84-80
11/03/26HAmager75-83
07/03/26HHerlev Wolfpack100-85
19/02/26ATeam FOG Naestved93-113
14/02/26ABears Academy75-100
05/02/26HHerlev Wolfpack106-94
28/01/26HBears Academy85-109
23/01/26AVejen89-76
16/01/26ASvendborg42-103

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vaerlose
Basketligaen 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW54%
HomeWLWLW54%
AwayLLWWW54%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261313
Win %54%54%54%
Points / game79.879.580.1
Allowed / game89.988.491.5
Point differential-10.2-8.9-11.4
Avg total169.7167.8171.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%8%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (6)100% (4)100% (2)
Overtime %4%0%8%
Holbaek-Stenhus
Basketligaen 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL19%
HomeLWWLL21%
AwayLWLLW17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %19%21%17%
Points / game80.482.478.2
Allowed / game94.092.695.5
Point differential-13.5-10.3-17.3
Avg total174.4175.0173.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%14%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won17% (6)0% (2)25% (4)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bakken Bears2723485%101.777.7+23.9
2 Team FOG Naestved2723485%105.788.4+17.4
3 Svendborg2720774%93.976.6+17.3
4 Horsens2718967%87.078.4+8.5
5 Randers2718967%93.186.0+7.1
6 Vaerlose26141254%79.889.9-10.2
7 Copenhagen27141352%87.986.5+1.4
8 Bears Academy2781930%81.593.4-11.9
9 Vejen2671927%77.390.7-13.3
10 BMS Herlev1741324%78.294.1-15.9
11 Herlev Wolfpack102820%77.290.2-13.0
12 Holbaek-Stenhus2652119%80.494.0-13.5
13 Amager2642215%81.895.6-13.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Vaerlose2320152987
Holbaek-Stenhus2413212280
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