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Vaerlose vs Holbaek-Stenhus Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 31 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 100-98 (OT)
28-25 28-21 10-21 23-22 11-9
Position#10
Record6-18
FormLLWLL
Points / game77.8
Allowed / game89.0
vs
Position#7
Record8-16
FormWWLWW
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game91.3
DenmarkBasketligaen· Sondersohallen
Other2024-25
Meetings · Vaerlose v Holbaek-Stenhus
24 Oct 2026
VAER64
HOLB68
28 Mar 2026
VAER87
HOLB80
29 Oct 2025
VAER87
HOLB83
31 Mar 2025
VAER100
HOLB98
07 Dec 2024
VAER88
HOLB90
17 Nov 2024
VAER100
HOLB86
15 Feb 2024
VAER99
HOLB80
12 Apr 2023
VAER104
HOLB60
16 Feb 2023
VAER90
HOLB68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vaerlose winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Holbaek-Stenhus winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VaerloseDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVaerlose
Date
Competition
Bakken Bears
#1
L
73-98
73
98
-25
60avg 69
H12/01
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#4
L
93-125
93
125
-32
82avg 69
A16/01
Basketligaen
Amager
#6
W
84-77
84
77
+7
80avg 69
H30/01
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#8
L
61-86
61
86
-25
49avg 69
A01/02
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
69-89
69
89
-20
61avg 69
H08/02
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
82-104
82
104
-22
69avg 69
A13/02
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
77-98
77
98
-21
57avg 69
A03/03
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
W
100-80
100
80
+20
96avg 69
H08/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
L
72-73
72
73
-1
64avg 69
A12/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#6
L
79-93
79
93
-14
70avg 69
H22/03
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-28
23-24
23-26
8-20
23-35
22-32
25-29
23-29
20-21
24-23
22-14
18-19
19-23
13-23
11-23
18-17
16-23
16-25
19-25
18-16
20-20
26-27
23-27
13-30
20-21
23-32
9-24
25-21
28-19
20-27
16-22
36-12
22-20
21-13
15-25
14-15
21-30
13-16
28-25
17-22
171.3Avg total
79.0Scored
92.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)77.889.0166.9-11.225%
Season at home (12)78.485.5163.9-7.133%
Season away (12)77.292.6169.8-15.317%
Last 10 (10)79.092.3171.3-13.320%
Last 5 (5)82.089.6171.6-7.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)74.693.4168.0-18.810%
vs Similar ◀ (9)85.184.8169.9+0.344%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Holbaek-StenhusDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHolbaek-Stenhus
Date
Competition
Bakken Bears
#1
L
69-104
69
104
-35
48avg 65
A14/01
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
77-87
77
87
-10
68avg 65
A19/01
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#4
L
49-107
49
107
-58
17avg 65
H28/01
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
71-99
71
99
-28
47avg 65
H01/02
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
L
73-80
73
80
-7
54avg 65
A07/02
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#10
W
104-82
104
82
+22
96avg 65
H13/02
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#10
W
98-77
98
77
+21
94avg 65
H03/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#6
L
85-95
85
95
-10
66avg 65
A08/03
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
W
100-76
100
76
+24
90avg 65
A15/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
W
90-83
90
83
+7
71avg 65
A23/03
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-23
13-31
24-29
20-21
13-17
22-27
20-28
22-15
8-22
15-30
16-27
10-28
25-27
8-23
21-30
17-19
14-24
22-20
8-22
29-14
20-20
27-26
27-23
30-13
21-20
32-23
24-9
21-25
23-21
22-31
18-20
22-23
26-19
28-18
22-23
24-16
27-23
17-25
24-14
22-21
170.6Avg total
81.6Scored
89.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)81.791.3173.0-9.733%
Season at home (11)84.292.6176.8-8.545%
Season away (13)79.590.2169.8-10.723%
Last 10 (10)81.689.0170.6-7.440%
Last 5 (5)95.482.6178.0+12.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)75.496.9172.3-21.66%
vs Similar ◀ (10)90.085.4175.4+4.660%
vs Weaker (3)78.080.3158.3-2.367%
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q1: -2.7-2.7Q2Q2: -4.1-4.1Q2: -4.8-4.8Q3Q3: -4.9-4.9Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +2.2+2.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q1: -2.7-2.7Q2Q2: -4.1-4.1Q2: -4.8-4.8Q3Q3: -4.9-4.9Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +2.2+2.2
VaerloseHolbaek-Stenhus
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VaerloseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bakken Bears
#1
L
42-52
42
52
-10
H12/01
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#4
L
45-67
45
67
-22
A16/01
Basketligaen
Amager
#6
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H30/01
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#8
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A01/02
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
32-48
32
48
-16
H08/02
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
46-47
46
47
-1
A13/02
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A03/03
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
W
48-46
48
46
+2
H08/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
W
43-33
43
33
+10
A12/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#6
L
34-46
34
46
-12
H22/03
Basketligaen
89.1Avg total
40.9Scored
48.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.844.584.3-4.727%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.844.385.1-3.527%-
Last 30 away (15)38.844.883.6-6.027%-
Last 10 (10)40.948.289.1-7.320%-
Last 5 (5)42.845.087.8-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)37.146.083.1-8.910%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)44.242.186.3+2.156%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Holbaek-StenhusLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bakken Bears
#1
L
25-54
25
54
-29
A14/01
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A19/01
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#4
L
23-52
23
52
-29
H28/01
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H01/02
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A07/02
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#10
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H13/02
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#10
W
53-43
53
43
+10
H03/03
Basketligaen
Amager
#6
L
45-52
45
52
-7
A08/03
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
W
54-37
54
37
+17
A15/03
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
L
44-48
44
48
-4
A23/03
Basketligaen
86.5Avg total
39.5Scored
47.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.146.586.6-6.437%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.947.988.9-7.036%-
Last 30 away (16)39.445.284.7-5.838%-
Last 10 (10)39.547.086.5-7.530%-
Last 5 (5)48.645.293.8+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)37.048.885.8-11.819%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)45.845.090.8+0.860%-
vs Weaker (3)39.036.775.7+2.367%-
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Vaerlosetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vaerlose: 78.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.6 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.020.0
48.8%
51.9%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.88.5
31.7%
32.6%25.5
🏀 Free throws21.112.7
60.2%
70.2%12.7
They take 67.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Holbaek-Stenhustheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Holbaek-Stenhus: 80.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.6 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.420.4
47.0%
51.9%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.27.3
25.0%
32.6%21.9
🏀 Free throws25.118.1
72.1%
70.2%18.1
They take 72.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Vaerlose
LLWLLLLWLL
Holbaek-Stenhus
WWLWWLLLLL
#10
League position
#7
-16.2
Net rating
-8.8
96.9
Offensive rating
94.9
113.2
Defensive rating
103.7
48.3%
Effective FG%
43.2%
56.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.2%
21.8%
Turnover %
18.5%
32.9%
Off. rebound %
30.1%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.35
31.7%
3-point %
25.0%
59.3%
Assist %
36.5%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence96.9 · 94.9Defence113.2 · 103.7Shooting48.3% · 43.2%3-point %31.7% · 25.0%Ball care21.8% · 18.5%Off. rebounds32.9% · 30.1%Free throws0.31 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)20% · 40%
■ Vaerlose   ■ Holbaek-Stenhus
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Vaerlose wins
3
Holbaek-Stenhus wins
Vaerloselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/03/25HAmager79-93
12/03/25ABears Academy72-73
08/03/25HHerlev Wolfpack100-80
03/03/25AHolbaek-Stenhus77-98
13/02/25AHolbaek-Stenhus82-104
08/02/25HHorsens69-89
01/02/25ACopenhagen61-86
30/01/25HAmager84-77
16/01/25ATeam FOG Naestved93-125
12/01/25HBakken Bears73-98
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/03/25ABears Academy90-83
15/03/25AHerlev Wolfpack100-76
08/03/25AAmager85-95
03/03/25HVaerlose98-77
13/02/25HVaerlose104-82
07/02/25AHerlev Wolfpack73-80
01/02/25HRanders71-99
28/01/25HTeam FOG Naestved49-107
19/01/25AHorsens77-87
14/01/25ABakken Bears69-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vaerlose
Basketligaen 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL25%
HomeLWLWL33%
AwayLLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %25%33%17%
Points / game77.878.477.2
Allowed / game89.085.592.6
Point differential-11.2-7.1-15.3
Avg total166.9163.9169.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%8%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Holbaek-Stenhus
Basketligaen 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW33%
HomeWLLWW45%
AwayLLLWW23%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241113
Win %33%45%23%
Points / game81.784.279.5
Allowed / game91.392.690.2
Point differential-9.7-8.5-10.7
Avg total173.0176.8169.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%18%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Svendborg2621581%88.875.3+13.5
2 Bakken Bears2619773%93.780.9+12.8
3 Team FOG Naestved2619773%95.588.6+6.9
4 Horsens2619773%86.880.0+6.8
5 Randers2719870%92.181.6+10.6
6 Amager24101442%87.391.0-3.8
7 Holbaek-Stenhus2481633%81.791.3-9.7
8 Copenhagen2781930%81.386.9-5.5
9 Herlev Wolfpack2571828%79.388.7-9.4
10 Vaerlose2461825%77.889.0-11.2
11 Bears Academy2542116%75.289.2-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Vaerlose2828102311100
Holbaek-Stenhus25212122998
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