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Holbaek-Stenhus vs Vaerlose Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 16 Nov 2023
Tip-off: 18:15
Final 70-78
11-26 23-17 22-20 14-15
Position#10
Record2-6
FormLLLWL
Points / game67.1
Allowed / game88.8
vs
Position#7
Record4-5
FormLLLLL
Points / game79.6
Allowed / game87.1
DenmarkBasketligaen· Holbaek Sportsby (Holbaek)
Other2023-24
Meetings · Holbaek-Stenhus v Vaerlose
21 Jan 2027
HOLB v VAER
upcoming
23 Apr 2026
HOLB83
VAER89
23 Sep 2025
HOLB81
VAER88
03 Mar 2025
HOLB98
VAER77
13 Feb 2025
HOLB104
VAER82
16 Nov 2023
HOLB70
VAER78
11 Mar 2023
HOLB62
VAER84
27 Nov 2022
HOLB75
VAER85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Holbaek-Stenhus winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Vaerlose winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Holbaek-StenhusDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHolbaek-Stenhus
Date
Competition
Amager
#10
L
79-89
79
89
-10
no box
H17/04
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
L
53-104
53
104
-51
36avg 52
A17/09
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#5
L
66-87
66
87
-21
55avg 52
H01/10
Basketligaen
Horsens
#2
L
74-97
74
97
-23
61avg 52
A08/10
Basketligaen
Amager
#11
W
84-83
84
83
+1
63avg 52
A13/10
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#4
L
73-96
73
96
-23
56avg 52
H22/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#3
L
61-107
61
107
-46
41avg 52
A24/10
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
L
61-73
61
73
-12
47avg 52
H02/11
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
W
65-63
65
63
+2
59avg 52
A09/11
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#5
L
42-59
42
59
-17
no box
A12/11
Denmark Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-28
18-17
15-18
19-26
4-13
21-28
15-27
13-36
23-17
13-20
15-29
15-21
17-17
20-27
17-24
20-29
13-20
27-14
20-20
24-29
14-25
17-26
21-23
21-22
12-24
7-26
22-27
20-30
24-13
13-20
11-18
13-22
21-10
9-15
20-22
15-16
13-14
9-15
8-17
12-13
151.6Avg total
65.8Scored
85.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)67.188.8155.9-21.625%
Season at home (3)66.785.3152.0-18.70%
Season away (5)67.490.8158.2-23.440%
Last 10 (10)65.885.8151.6-20.020%
Last 5 (5)60.479.6140.0-19.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)67.087.6154.5-20.612%
vs Similar (2)72.578.0150.5-5.550%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VaerloseDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVaerlose
Date
Competition
Team FOG Naestved
#3
L
82-100
82
100
-18
70avg 69
A14/09
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#4
W
76-70
76
70
+6
71avg 69
H23/09
Basketligaen
Amager
#11
W
102-83
102
83
+19
92avg 69
A28/09
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
W
85-78
85
78
+7
77avg 69
H07/10
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
W
79-70
79
70
+9
72avg 69
A14/10
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#5
L
79-83
79
83
-4
70avg 69
H22/10
Basketligaen
Horsens
#2
L
56-88
56
88
-32
34avg 69
A29/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#1
L
72-118
72
118
-46
59avg 69
A05/11
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
L
85-94
85
94
-9
72avg 69
H07/11
Basketligaen
Horsens
#4
L
71-90
71
90
-19
no box
H12/11
Denmark Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-19
17-33
19-29
23-19
15-17
29-18
20-23
12-12
29-20
20-19
29-21
24-23
23-19
16-19
19-22
27-18
13-21
20-12
22-18
24-19
21-27
28-11
13-18
17-27
16-15
12-25
11-29
17-19
10-27
26-30
22-30
14-31
20-21
25-21
17-31
23-21
15-17
21-31
19-20
16-22
166.1Avg total
78.7Scored
87.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)79.687.1166.7-7.644%
Season at home (4)81.281.2162.5+0.050%
Season away (5)78.291.8170.0-13.640%
Last 10 (10)78.787.4166.1-8.740%
Last 5 (5)72.694.6167.2-22.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)76.395.0171.3-18.711%
vs Similar (10)76.780.7157.4-4.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)86.974.4161.3+12.467%
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: -1.8-1.8Q2Q2: -5.4-5.4Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: -6.1-6.1Q3: -5.0-5.0Q4Q4: -7.2-7.2Q4: -1.4-1.4
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: -1.8-1.8Q2Q2: -5.4-5.4Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: -6.1-6.1Q3: -5.0-5.0Q4Q4: -7.2-7.2Q4: -1.4-1.4
Holbaek-StenhusVaerlose
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Holbaek-StenhusLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Amager
#10
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H17/04
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A17/09
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#5
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H01/10
Basketligaen
Horsens
#2
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A08/10
Basketligaen
Amager
#11
W
40-34
40
34
+6
A13/10
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#4
L
31-51
31
51
-20
H22/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#3
L
19-50
19
50
-31
A24/10
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H02/11
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
W
30-25
30
25
+5
A09/11
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#5
L
22-29
22
29
-7
A12/11
Denmark Cup
71.1Avg total
32.2Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.043.175.0-11.117%-
Last 30 at home (13)32.141.873.9-9.823%-
Last 30 away (17)31.944.075.9-12.112%-
Last 10 (10)32.238.971.1-6.730%-
Last 5 (5)27.837.665.4-9.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)31.843.875.6-12.012%-
vs Similar (2)38.533.572.0+5.0100%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VaerloseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Team FOG Naestved
#3
L
40-52
40
52
-12
A14/09
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#4
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H23/09
Basketligaen
Amager
#11
W
49-39
49
39
+10
A28/09
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H07/10
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A14/10
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#5
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H22/10
Basketligaen
Horsens
#2
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A29/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#1
L
36-57
36
57
-21
A05/11
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
W
45-42
45
42
+3
H07/11
Basketligaen
Horsens
#4
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H12/11
Denmark Cup
82.1Avg total
39.9Scored
42.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.640.979.5-2.447%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.040.781.7+0.357%-
Last 30 away (16)36.441.177.6-4.738%-
Last 10 (10)39.942.282.1-2.350%-
Last 5 (5)38.845.083.8-6.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)40.046.986.9-6.944%-
vs Similar (10)37.038.275.2-1.240%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)41.936.178.0+5.867%-
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Holbaek-Stenhustheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Holbaek-Stenhus: 66.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.3 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.917.1
39.9%
51.8%34.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.16.0
23.9%
31.7%18.0
🏀 Free throws22.513.9
61.7%
67.0%13.9
They take 68.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Vaerlosetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vaerlose: 78.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.9 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.3 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.821.4
47.9%
51.8%42.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.96.9
28.8%
31.7%20.7
🏀 Free throws21.315.1
70.8%
67.0%15.1
They take 68.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 8/9 games with a box score before 16 Nov 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Holbaek-Stenhus
LWLLLWLLLL
Vaerlose
LLLLLWWWWL
#10
League position
#7
-26.7
Net rating
-9.3
80.8
Offensive rating
96.5
107.6
Defensive rating
105.8
38.4%
Effective FG%
46.3%
50.7%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
24.9%
Turnover %
19.8%
33.4%
Off. rebound %
28.9%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.31
23.9%
3-point %
28.8%
53.0%
Assist %
52.9%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence80.8 · 96.5Defence107.6 · 105.8Shooting38.4% · 46.3%3-point %23.9% · 28.8%Ball care24.9% · 19.8%Off. rebounds33.4% · 28.9%Free throws0.33 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)20% · 40%
■ Holbaek-Stenhus   ■ Vaerlose
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Holbaek-Stenhus wins
4
Vaerlose wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/23ABears Academy42-59
09/11/23ABears Academy65-63
02/11/23HHerlev Wolfpack61-73
24/10/23ATeam FOG Naestved61-107
22/10/23HCopenhagen73-96
13/10/23AAmager84-83
08/10/23AHorsens74-97
01/10/23HSvendborg66-87
17/09/23ARanders53-104
17/04/23HAmager79-89
Vaerloselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/23HHorsens71-90
07/11/23HRanders85-94
05/11/23ABakken Bears72-118
29/10/23AHorsens56-88
22/10/23HSvendborg79-83
14/10/23AHerlev Wolfpack79-70
07/10/23HBears Academy85-78
28/09/23AAmager102-83
23/09/23HCopenhagen76-70
14/09/23ATeam FOG Naestved82-100

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Holbaek-Stenhus
Basketligaen 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW25%
HomeLLL0%
AwayLLWLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games835
Win %25%0%40%
Points / game67.166.767.4
Allowed / game88.885.390.8
Point differential-21.6-18.7-23.4
Avg total155.9152.0158.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Vaerlose
Basketligaen 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL44%
HomeWWLL50%
AwayLWWLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %44%50%40%
Points / game79.681.278.2
Allowed / game87.181.291.8
Point differential-7.6+0.0-13.6
Avg total166.7162.5170.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%0%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bakken Bears770100%97.978.7+19.1
2 Horsens97278%91.671.0+20.6
3 Svendborg97278%86.279.8+6.4
4 Team FOG Naestved86275%96.078.0+18.0
5 Randers95456%96.385.6+10.8
6 Copenhagen105550%83.977.6+6.3
7 Vaerlose94544%79.687.1-7.6
8 Herlev Wolfpack82625%65.583.1-17.6
9 Holbaek-Stenhus82625%67.188.8-21.6
10 Bears Academy92722%73.981.7-7.8
11 Amager8080%67.696.2-28.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Holbaek-Stenhus1123221470
Vaerlose2617201578
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