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Iceland vs Italy Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 02 Jul 2026
Tip-off: 19:45
Final 83-102
25-27 21-31 16-26 21-18
Position#60
Record2-2
FormLWLWL
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game87.5
vs
Italy 🏆
Position#29
Record3-1
FormLLWWW
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game73.5
EuropeWorld CupRound 5· Laugardalsholl
Other2027
Meetings · Iceland v Italy
02 Jul 2026
ICEL83
ITAL102
22 Nov 2024
ICEL71
ITAL95
24 Feb 2022
ICEL107
ITAL105
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Iceland winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

IcelandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormIceland
Date
Competition
Turkey
#20
W
83-71
83
71
+12
no box
H23/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#12
L
71-83
71
83
-12
60avg 67
A28/08
EuroBasket
Belgium
#16
L
64-71
64
71
-7
60avg 67
H30/08
EuroBasket
Poland
#9
L
75-84
75
84
-9
67avg 67
A31/08
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
79-87
79
87
-8
79avg 67
H02/09
EuroBasket
France
#5
L
74-114
74
114
-40
60avg 67
A04/09
EuroBasket
Italy
#29
W
81-76
81
76
+5
no box
A27/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
L
84-90
84
90
-6
no box
H30/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
W
86-85
86
85
+1
no box
H27/02
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
L
82-99
82
99
-17
no box
A02/03
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-16
20-22
23-16
14-17
19-23
13-13
20-24
19-23
21-17
15-15
16-14
12-25
16-19
16-22
19-20
24-23
20-21
15-15
11-24
33-27
9-36
25-30
12-24
28-24
21-21
17-13
23-20
20-22
17-17
18-26
16-26
33-21
24-21
19-23
11-24
32-17
14-26
19-26
23-27
26-20
163.9Avg total
77.9Scored
86.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.287.5170.8-4.250%
Season at home (2)85.087.5172.5-2.550%
Season away (2)81.587.5169.0-6.050%
Last 10 (10)77.986.0163.9-8.130%
Last 5 (5)81.492.8174.2-11.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)73.185.9159.0-12.920%
vs Similar (9)84.985.4170.3-0.644%
vs Weaker (6)79.073.0152.0+6.083%
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Greece
#3
L
66-75
66
75
-9
54avg 74
A28/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
W
78-62
78
62
+16
74avg 74
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
96-79
96
79
+17
97avg 74
A31/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
W
67-63
67
63
+4
58avg 74
H02/09
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
89-54
89
54
+35
87avg 74
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
77-84
77
84
-7
77avg 74
H07/09
EuroBasket
Iceland
#60
L
76-81
76
81
-5
no box
H27/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
W
82-81
82
81
+1
no box
A30/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
93-57
93
57
+36
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
84-75
84
75
+9
no box
H02/03
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-22
20-14
13-20
21-19
18-10
14-22
21-15
25-15
22-21
22-19
28-21
24-18
10-18
20-18
19-11
18-16
24-6
16-13
27-24
22-11
11-29
29-21
16-22
21-12
21-21
13-17
20-23
22-20
16-19
18-20
20-15
28-27
32-14
19-13
14-19
28-11
21-21
22-17
21-21
20-16
151.9Avg total
80.8Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.873.5157.2+10.275%
Season at home (2)80.078.0158.0+2.050%
Season away (2)87.569.0156.5+18.5100%
Last 10 (10)80.871.1151.9+9.770%
Last 5 (5)82.475.6158.0+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.878.7160.5+3.267%
vs Similar (9)79.878.4158.2+1.356%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)83.470.7154.1+12.773%
This opponent (Iceland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: +1.9+1.9Q3Q3: -4.5-4.5Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: +6.4+6.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: +1.9+1.9Q3Q3: -4.5-4.5Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: +6.4+6.4
IcelandItaly
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
IcelandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Turkey
#20
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H23/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#12
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A28/08
EuroBasket
Belgium
#16
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H30/08
EuroBasket
Poland
#9
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A31/08
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H02/09
EuroBasket
France
#5
L
34-66
34
66
-32
A04/09
EuroBasket
Italy
#29
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A27/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
L
35-43
35
43
-8
H30/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H27/02
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
L
33-52
33
52
-19
A02/03
World Cup
78.6Avg total
36.4Scored
42.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.641.376.9-5.733%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.739.776.4-3.036%-
Last 30 away (16)34.642.777.3-8.131%-
Last 10 (10)36.442.278.6-5.830%-
Last 5 (5)36.647.884.4-11.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)33.242.375.5-9.127%-
vs Similar (9)38.940.679.4-1.733%-
vs Weaker (6)36.739.876.5-3.250%-
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Greece
#3
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A28/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A31/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H02/09
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
40-19
40
19
+21
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H07/09
EuroBasket
Iceland
#60
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H27/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A30/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
51-27
51
27
+24
A27/02
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H02/03
World Cup
73.5Avg total
38.0Scored
35.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.536.976.5+2.647%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.537.174.6+0.333%-
Last 30 away (15)41.636.778.3+4.960%-
Last 10 (10)38.035.573.5+2.540%-
Last 5 (5)40.438.478.8+2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)39.340.780.0-1.333%-
vs Similar (9)38.438.777.1-0.244%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)40.334.474.7+5.953%-
This opponent (Iceland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Icelandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Iceland: 73.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 19% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.217.5
51.2%
-35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.08.4
30.0%
-25.2
🏀 Free throws18.713.7
73.3%
-13.7
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 78.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 20% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.216.8
49.1%
-33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.29.6
34.0%
-28.8
🏀 Free throws21.315.7
73.7%
-15.7
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Jul 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Iceland
LWLWLLLLLW
Italy
WWWLLWWWWL
#60
League position
#29
-13.1
Net rating
+12.0
100.0
Offensive rating
108.6
113.1
Defensive rating
96.7
48.4%
Effective FG%
50.0%
50.7%
Opp. effective FG%
47.6%
17.2%
Turnover %
15.4%
25.0%
Off. rebound %
30.5%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.34
30.0%
3-point %
34.0%
70.7%
Assist %
75.0%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ Iceland   ■ Italy
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Iceland wins
2
Italy wins
DateGameScore
27/11/25Italy v Iceland76-81
25/11/24Italy v Iceland74-81
22/11/24Iceland v Italy71-95
27/02/22Italy v Iceland95-87
24/02/22Iceland v Italy107-105 OT
Icelandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/26ALithuania82-99
27/02/26HLithuania86-85
30/11/25HGreat Britain84-90
27/11/25AItaly81-76
04/09/25AFrance74-114
02/09/25HSlovenia79-87
31/08/25APoland75-84
30/08/25HBelgium64-71
28/08/25AIsrael71-83
23/02/25HTurkey83-71
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/26HGreat Britain84-75
27/02/26AGreat Britain93-57
30/11/25ALithuania82-81
27/11/25HIceland76-81
07/09/25HSlovenia77-84
04/09/25HCyprus89-54
02/09/25HSpain67-63
31/08/25ABosnia & Herzegovina96-79
30/08/25HGeorgia78-62
28/08/25AGreece66-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Iceland
World Cup 2027
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWL50%
HomeLW50%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game83.285.081.5
Allowed / game87.587.587.5
Point differential-4.2-2.5-6.0
Avg total170.8172.5169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Italy
World Cup 2027
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeLW50%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%50%100%
Points / game83.880.087.5
Allowed / game73.578.069.0
Point differential+10.2+2.0+18.5
Avg total157.2158.0156.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
2 Spain550100%87.467.2+20.2
3 Uruguay440100%81.562.0+19.5
4 Brazil440100%88.871.0+17.8
5 Canada440100%99.582.2+17.2
6 Guinea440100%76.561.2+15.2
7 Turkey550100%87.274.0+13.2
8 Australia440100%87.275.5+11.8
9 Poland440100%87.878.8+9.0
10 Mali440100%82.074.8+7.2
11 Croatia87188%93.672.2+21.4
12 Jordan54180%80.858.6+22.2
13 Lebanon54180%87.872.4+15.4
14 Iran54180%75.865.8+10.0
15 South Sudan43175%84.862.8+22.0
16 Argentina43175%82.563.2+19.2
17 Angola43175%86.870.5+16.2
18 Ivory Coast43175%89.274.5+14.8
19 Senegal43175%84.871.0+13.8
20 Slovenia43175%93.080.0+13.0
21 Italy43175%83.873.5+10.2
22 Germany43175%87.878.8+9.0
23 Japan43175%82.074.0+8.0
24 France43175%81.874.0+7.8
25 Cameroon43175%74.070.2+3.8
26 Finland43175%78.576.5+2.0
27 Dominican Republic32167%88.778.3+10.3
28 Mexico32167%91.084.0+7.0
29 Ukraine96367%80.075.2+4.8
30 Colombia32167%79.385.7-6.3
31 Netherlands85362%81.276.1+5.1
32 Romania138562%77.877.5+0.4
33 Greece53260%75.467.4+8.0
34 Lithuania53260%91.884.6+7.2
35 Qatar53260%80.874.6+6.2
36 Saudi Arabia53260%77.674.0+3.6
37 Serbia53260%85.081.4+3.6
38 Montenegro53260%69.274.0-4.8
39 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
40 Switzerland158753%73.271.3+1.9
41 Israel42250%79.270.5+8.8
42 Philippines42250%78.569.8+8.8
43 New Zealand42250%81.074.0+7.0
44 Austria126650%84.979.5+5.4
45 Hungary84450%80.977.6+3.2
46 Tunisia42250%76.273.5+2.8
47 South Korea42250%76.876.8+0.0
48 Estonia42250%85.886.5-0.8
49 China42250%84.885.8-1.0
50 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
51 Jamaica42250%91.594.5-3.0
52 Nigeria42250%73.076.8-3.8
53 Iceland42250%83.287.5-4.2
54 Czech Republic42250%84.289.2-5.0
55 Cape Verde42250%79.585.5-6.0
56 D.R. Congo42250%71.078.0-7.0
57 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
58 Bosnia & Herzegovina52340%78.673.8+4.8
59 Portugal52340%82.878.6+4.2
60 Georgia52340%78.881.6-2.8
61 Syria52340%68.879.4-10.6
62 Venezuela31233%78.080.7-2.7
63 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
64 Egypt41325%77.574.8+2.8
65 Latvia41325%79.582.5-3.0
66 Puerto Rico41325%84.587.8-3.2
67 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
68 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
69 Chinese Taipei41325%76.883.8-7.0
70 Sweden41325%79.887.0-7.2
71 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
72 Bahamas41325%82.093.0-11.0
73 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
74 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
75 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
76 Panama41325%75.289.8-14.5
77 Denmark92722%73.685.4-11.9
78 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
79 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
80 Great Britain51420%79.091.0-12.0
81 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
82 Belgium4040%72.278.8-6.5
83 Chile4040%68.579.5-11.0
84 Rwanda4040%67.081.2-14.2
85 Libya4040%64.284.0-19.8
86 Madagascar4040%70.291.8-21.5
87 Iraq5050%69.891.4-21.6
88 Cuba4040%65.089.2-24.2
89 India5050%58.683.8-25.2
90 Nicaragua2020%66.592.5-26.0
91 Uganda4040%63.890.0-26.2
92 Guam4040%66.093.5-27.5
93 Cyprus4040%58.090.0-32.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Iceland2521162183
Italy27312618102
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