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Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 23 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 03:30
Final 114-104
26-26 34-24 22-22 32-32
Position#1
Record24-12
FormWLWLW
Points / game100.2
Allowed / game91.3
Illawarra Hawks 🏆
Australia
vs
Melbourne United
Australia
Position#2
Record23-13
FormWWLWL
Points / game95.2
Allowed / game91.7
AustraliaNBLNBL - Final· WIN Entertainment Centre
Other2024-25
Meetings · Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United
20 Dec 2026
ILLA v MELB
upcoming
21 Nov 2025
ILLA102
MELB105
05 Nov 2025
ILLA107
MELB93
23 Mar 2025
ILLA114
MELB104
16 Mar 2025
ILLA77
MELB83
08 Mar 2025
ILLA88
MELB96
18 Jan 2025
ILLA117
MELB95
24 Oct 2024
ILLA87
MELB92
10 Mar 2024
ILLA113
MELB108
20 Oct 2023
ILLA91
MELB101
05 Dec 2022
ILLA93
MELB79
29 Oct 2022
ILLA100
MELB106
07 Mar 2022
ILLA v MELB
upcoming
16 Jan 2022
ILLA84
MELB88
18 May 2021
ILLA87
MELB102
13 Mar 2021
ILLA77
MELB69
10 Feb 2021
ILLA88
MELB91
04 Jan 2020
ILLA91
MELB104
16 Dec 2019
ILLA73
MELB94
08 Nov 2018
ILLA87
MELB81
12 Oct 2018
ILLA122
MELB123
06 Jan 2018
ILLA77
MELB79
16 Dec 2017
ILLA78
MELB84
07 Jan 2017
ILLA106
MELB88
06 Nov 2016
ILLA82
MELB73
04 Feb 2016
ILLA73
MELB80
03 Dec 2015
ILLA102
MELB87
30 Jan 2015
ILLA93
MELB82
19 Dec 2014
ILLA98
MELB103
26 Jan 2014
ILLA78
MELB86
31 Dec 2013
ILLA81
MELB91
08 Feb 2013
ILLA70
MELB77
31 Dec 2012
ILLA72
MELB80
27 Jan 2012
ILLA90
MELB68
30 Oct 2011
ILLA74
MELB82
14 Nov 2010
ILLA93
MELB82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illawarra Hawks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Melbourne United winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
102-78
102
78
+24
94avg 91
A30/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
96-82
96
82
+14
92avg 91
A05/02
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
95-75
95
75
+20
82avg 91
H07/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
101-94
101
94
+7
92avg 91
H28/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
94-101
94
101
-7
77avg 91
A02/03
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
126-96
126
96
+30
130avg 91
H05/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
88-96
88
96
-8
73avg 91
H08/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
W
102-100
102
100
+2
86avg 91
A12/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
77-83
77
83
-6
67avg 91
H16/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
W
80-71
80
71
+9
72avg 91
A19/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-13
31-21
25-25
25-19
27-17
22-23
33-19
14-23
29-24
21-15
15-22
30-14
31-27
23-34
32-12
15-21
24-24
23-27
21-15
26-35
37-22
33-22
33-20
23-32
29-26
24-17
14-21
21-32
29-29
22-20
31-22
20-29
22-17
20-24
25-19
10-23
15-12
13-20
23-16
29-23
183.7Avg total
96.1Scored
87.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (36)100.291.3191.5+9.067%
Season at home (18)103.190.9194.1+12.267%
Season away (18)97.491.6189.0+5.867%
Last 10 (10)96.187.6183.7+8.570%
Last 5 (5)94.689.2183.8+5.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)100.192.3192.3+7.863%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
115-88
115
88
+27
112avg 87
A26/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
94-92
94
92
+2
90avg 87
H01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
103-93
103
93
+10
100avg 87
H08/02
NBL
Perth
#3
W
105-93
105
93
+12
100avg 87
H27/02
NBL
Perth
#3
L
89-96
89
96
-7
78avg 87
A01/03
NBL
Perth
#3
W
113-112
113
112
+1
108avg 87
H04/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
96-88
96
88
+8
92avg 87
A08/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
100-102
100
102
-2
101avg 87
H12/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
83-77
83
77
+6
71avg 87
A16/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
71-80
71
80
-9
55avg 87
H19/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-26
35-14
26-21
28-27
21-32
30-29
17-16
26-15
30-26
16-28
30-22
27-17
23-17
26-33
32-21
24-22
36-21
19-20
19-22
15-33
26-37
32-25
29-22
26-28
26-29
17-24
21-14
32-21
29-29
20-22
22-31
29-20
17-22
24-20
19-25
23-10
12-15
20-13
16-23
23-29
189.0Avg total
96.9Scored
92.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (36)95.291.7186.9+3.664%
Season at home (19)96.994.5191.5+2.458%
Season away (17)93.388.5181.8+4.871%
Last 10 (10)96.992.1189.0+4.870%
Last 5 (5)92.691.8184.4+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)90.093.9183.9-3.943%
vs Similar (11)97.695.9193.5+1.773%
vs Weaker (12)98.191.3189.4+6.867%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.3+5.3Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +6.1+6.1Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: -3.8-3.8Q4: +3.1+3.1
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.3+5.3Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +6.1+6.1Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: -3.8-3.8Q4: +3.1+3.1
Illawarra HawksMelbourne United
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
52-34
52
34
+18
A30/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
49-40
49
40
+9
A05/02
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H07/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
54-61
54
61
-7
H28/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
47-51
47
51
-4
A02/03
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
70-44
70
44
+26
H05/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
W
53-43
53
43
+10
H08/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
W
51-49
51
49
+2
A12/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H16/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
28-32
28
32
-4
A19/03
NBL
93.0Avg total
49.6Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.846.397.1+4.560%-
Last 30 at home (15)54.143.797.9+10.480%-
Last 30 away (15)47.548.996.4-1.540%-
Last 10 (10)49.643.493.0+6.270%-
Last 5 (5)48.841.890.6+7.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)50.846.397.1+4.560%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
61-40
61
40
+21
A26/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
L
51-61
51
61
-10
H01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
46-54
46
54
-8
H08/02
NBL
Perth
#3
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H27/02
NBL
Perth
#3
W
55-41
55
41
+14
A01/03
NBL
Perth
#3
L
58-62
58
62
-4
H04/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A08/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
49-51
49
51
-2
H12/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A16/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H19/03
NBL
96.7Avg total
48.5Scored
48.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.747.295.9+1.550%-
Last 30 at home (16)49.149.898.8-0.738%-
Last 30 away (14)48.244.392.5+3.964%-
Last 10 (10)48.548.296.7+0.330%-
Last 5 (5)44.647.291.8-2.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)42.645.087.6-2.443%-
vs Similar (11)52.349.7102.0+2.555%-
vs Weaker (12)48.946.295.1+2.850%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 95.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.224.5
50.8%
52.3%49.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.910.6
34.3%
35.1%31.8
🏀 Free throws20.114.5
72.1%
74.7%14.5
They take 79.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 96.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.022.9
55.9%
52.3%45.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.712.6
38.5%
35.1%37.8
🏀 Free throws19.412.5
64.4%
74.7%12.5
They take 73.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Illawarra Hawks
WLWLWLWWWW
Melbourne United
LWLWWLWWWW
#1
League position
#2
+10.6
Net rating
+6.2
118.3
Offensive rating
118.9
107.8
Defensive rating
112.7
51.1%
Effective FG%
56.7%
49.9%
Opp. effective FG%
49.7%
10.4%
Turnover %
12.4%
34.4%
Off. rebound %
28.4%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.26
34.3%
3-point %
38.5%
55.6%
Assist %
61.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence118.3 · 118.9Defence107.8 · 112.7Shooting51.1% · 56.7%3-point %34.3% · 38.5%Ball care10.4% · 12.4%Off. rebounds34.4% · 28.4%Free throws0.25 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Illawarra Hawks   ■ Melbourne United
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Illawarra Hawks wins
5
Melbourne United wins
DateGameScore
19/03/25Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks71-80
16/03/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United77-83
12/03/25Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks100-102
08/03/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United88-96
18/01/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United117-95
13/12/24Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks93-106
24/10/24Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United87-92
13/03/24Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks100-94
10/03/24Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United113-108 OT
07/03/24Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks115-106 OT
Illawarra Hawkslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/03/25AMelbourne United80-71
16/03/25HMelbourne United77-83
12/03/25AMelbourne United102-100
08/03/25HMelbourne United88-96
05/03/25HSouth East Melbourne126-96
02/03/25ASouth East Melbourne94-101
28/02/25HSouth East Melbourne101-94
07/02/25HSydney95-75
05/02/25ANew Zealand Breakers96-82
30/01/25ATasmania JackJumpers102-78
Melbourne Unitedlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/03/25HIllawarra Hawks71-80
16/03/25AIllawarra Hawks83-77
12/03/25HIllawarra Hawks100-102
08/03/25AIllawarra Hawks96-88
04/03/25HPerth113-112
01/03/25APerth89-96
27/02/25HPerth105-93
08/02/25HSouth East Melbourne103-93
01/02/25HTasmania JackJumpers94-92
26/01/25ABrisbane Bullets115-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW67%
HomeWWWLL67%
AwayWWLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games361818
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game100.2103.197.4
Allowed / game91.390.991.6
Point differential+9.0+12.2+5.8
Avg total191.5194.1189.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%44%39%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (9)20% (5)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Melbourne United
NBL 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL64%
HomeWWWLL58%
AwayWWLWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games361917
Win %64%58%71%
Points / game95.296.993.3
Allowed / game91.794.588.5
Point differential+3.6+2.4+4.8
Avg total186.9191.5181.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%26%35%
Close games (≤5 pts) won88% (8)80% (5)100% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Illawarra Hawks36241267%100.291.3+9.0
2 Melbourne United36231364%95.291.7+3.6
3 Perth33201361%100.897.7+3.1
4 Sydney30161453%90.688.4+2.2
5 South East Melbourne34181653%96.193.4+2.8
6 Adelaide31141745%93.795.8-2.0
7 Tasmania JackJumpers29131645%84.088.0-4.1
8 Brisbane Bullets29121741%92.397.9-5.5
9 New Zealand Breakers29101934%85.791.4-5.7
10 Cairns Taipans2982128%88.395.5-7.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Illawarra Hawks26342232114
Melbourne United26242232104
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