PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 12 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 100-102
29-29 20-22 22-31 29-20
Position#2
Record22-11
FormWWLWW
Points / game96.2
Allowed / game92.2
Melbourne United
Australia
vs
Illawarra Hawks 🏆
Australia
Position#1
Record22-11
FormWWLWL
Points / game101.5
Allowed / game91.9
AustraliaNBLNBL - Final· John Cain Arena
Other2024-25
Meetings · Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks
13 Feb 2027
MELB v ILLA
upcoming
18 Oct 2026
MELB89
ILLA91
15 Feb 2026
MELB91
ILLA100
18 Dec 2025
MELB97
ILLA75
19 Mar 2025
MELB71
ILLA80
12 Mar 2025
MELB100
ILLA102
13 Dec 2024
MELB93
ILLA106
13 Mar 2024
MELB100
ILLA94
07 Mar 2024
MELB115
ILLA106
18 Feb 2024
MELB92
ILLA87
29 Oct 2023
MELB96
ILLA84
18 Dec 2022
MELB88
ILLA77
02 Apr 2022
MELB90
ILLA96
27 Mar 2022
MELB77
ILLA92
18 Apr 2021
MELB87
ILLA76
21 Mar 2021
MELB75
ILLA65
08 Feb 2020
MELB95
ILLA72
23 Jan 2019
MELB113
ILLA89
29 Oct 2018
MELB99
ILLA93
18 Feb 2018
MELB84
ILLA94
04 Dec 2017
MELB91
ILLA73
06 Feb 2017
MELB78
ILLA72
16 Oct 2016
MELB95
ILLA83
07 Jan 2016
MELB97
ILLA96
11 Oct 2015
MELB93
ILLA81
07 Feb 2015
MELB76
ILLA82
02 Nov 2014
MELB88
ILLA75
27 Dec 2013
MELB74
ILLA67
10 Nov 2013
MELB81
ILLA76
02 Mar 2013
MELB82
ILLA88
25 Nov 2012
MELB66
ILLA74
18 Mar 2012
MELB61
ILLA71
06 Feb 2011
MELB93
ILLA72
07 Nov 2010
MELB82
ILLA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne United winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illawarra Hawks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
91-89
91
89
+2
86avg 88
A13/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
95-117
95
117
-22
79avg 88
A18/01
NBL
Perth
#3
W
99-93
99
93
+6
93avg 88
A22/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
115-88
115
88
+27
112avg 88
A26/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
94-92
94
92
+2
90avg 88
H01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
103-93
103
93
+10
100avg 88
H08/02
NBL
Perth
#3
W
105-93
105
93
+12
100avg 88
H27/02
NBL
Perth
#3
L
89-96
89
96
-7
78avg 88
A01/03
NBL
Perth
#3
W
113-112
113
112
+1
108avg 88
H04/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
96-88
96
88
+8
92avg 88
A08/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-26
16-16
21-29
29-18
25-29
21-29
20-27
29-32
21-23
25-20
25-25
28-25
26-26
35-14
26-21
28-27
21-32
30-29
17-16
26-15
30-26
16-28
30-22
27-17
23-17
26-33
32-21
24-22
36-21
19-20
19-22
15-33
26-37
32-25
29-22
26-28
26-29
17-24
21-14
32-21
196.1Avg total
100.0Scored
96.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)96.292.2188.3+4.067%
Season at home (17)98.394.9193.2+3.465%
Season away (16)93.989.2183.1+4.869%
Last 10 (10)100.096.1196.1+3.980%
Last 5 (5)101.296.4197.6+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)94.099.5193.5-5.550%
vs Similar (12)97.693.6191.2+4.075%
vs Weaker (14)97.991.1189.1+6.864%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#2
W
117-95
117
95
+22
108avg 93
H18/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
121-87
121
87
+34
128avg 93
H20/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
L
94-100
94
100
-6
78avg 93
A23/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
102-78
102
78
+24
94avg 93
A30/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
96-82
96
82
+14
92avg 93
A05/02
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
95-75
95
75
+20
82avg 93
H07/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
101-94
101
94
+7
92avg 93
H28/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
94-101
94
101
-7
77avg 93
A02/03
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
126-96
126
96
+30
130avg 93
H05/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
88-96
88
96
-8
73avg 93
H08/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-25
29-21
27-20
32-29
35-20
21-21
35-19
30-27
17-31
20-23
27-17
30-29
21-13
31-21
25-25
25-19
27-17
22-23
33-19
14-23
29-24
21-15
15-22
30-14
31-27
23-34
32-12
15-21
24-24
23-27
21-15
26-35
37-22
33-22
33-20
23-32
29-26
24-17
14-21
21-32
193.8Avg total
103.4Scored
90.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)101.591.9193.4+9.667%
Season at home (17)104.691.4196.1+13.271%
Season away (16)98.292.4190.6+5.862%
Last 10 (10)103.490.4193.8+13.070%
Last 5 (5)100.892.4193.2+8.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)101.392.2193.5+9.163%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: +5.0+5.0Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +2.3+2.3Q3Q3: +2.1+2.1Q3: +7.2+7.2Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: -1.5-1.5
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: +5.0+5.0Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +2.3+2.3Q3Q3: +2.1+2.1Q3: +7.2+7.2Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: -1.5-1.5
Melbourne UnitedIllawarra Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A13/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
46-58
46
58
-12
A18/01
NBL
Perth
#3
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A22/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
61-40
61
40
+21
A26/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
L
51-61
51
61
-10
H01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
46-54
46
54
-8
H08/02
NBL
Perth
#3
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H27/02
NBL
Perth
#3
W
55-41
55
41
+14
A01/03
NBL
Perth
#3
L
58-62
58
62
-4
H04/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A08/03
NBL
100.0Avg total
49.6Scored
50.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.548.298.7+2.353%-
Last 30 at home (16)51.051.7102.7-0.738%-
Last 30 away (14)49.944.294.1+5.671%-
Last 10 (10)49.650.4100.0-0.830%-
Last 5 (5)50.252.0102.2-1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)44.048.592.5-4.550%-
vs Similar (12)53.249.0102.2+4.258%-
vs Weaker (14)49.947.497.4+2.550%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#2
W
58-46
58
46
+12
H18/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H20/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
L
37-54
37
54
-17
A23/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
52-34
52
34
+18
A30/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
49-40
49
40
+9
A05/02
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H07/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
54-61
54
61
-7
H28/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
47-51
47
51
-4
A02/03
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
70-44
70
44
+26
H05/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
W
53-43
53
43
+10
H08/03
NBL
97.9Avg total
52.6Scored
45.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.846.698.4+5.263%-
Last 30 at home (16)55.144.199.2+10.981%-
Last 30 away (14)48.149.497.4-1.343%-
Last 10 (10)52.645.397.9+7.370%-
Last 5 (5)54.847.6102.4+7.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)51.846.698.4+5.263%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 99.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.524.1
56.7%
52.3%48.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.112.6
37.0%
35.1%37.8
🏀 Free throws19.213.0
67.7%
74.7%13.0
They take 76.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 102.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.527.0
55.7%
52.3%54.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.111.6
36.1%
35.1%34.8
🏀 Free throws20.614.0
68.0%
74.7%14.0
They take 80.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Melbourne United
WWLWWWWWLW
Illawarra Hawks
LWLWWWWLWW
#2
League position
#1
+4.2
Net rating
+16.2
119.1
Offensive rating
124.0
114.9
Defensive rating
107.9
56.1%
Effective FG%
55.1%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
48.8%
12.1%
Turnover %
10.2%
29.3%
Off. rebound %
34.0%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.26
37.0%
3-point %
36.1%
60.2%
Assist %
54.9%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence119.1 · 124.0Defence114.9 · 107.9Shooting56.1% · 55.1%3-point %37.0% · 36.1%Ball care12.1% · 10.2%Off. rebounds29.3% · 34.0%Free throws0.25 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Melbourne United   ■ Illawarra Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Melbourne United wins
3
Illawarra Hawks wins
DateGameScore
08/03/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United88-96
18/01/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United117-95
13/12/24Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks93-106
24/10/24Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United87-92
13/03/24Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks100-94
10/03/24Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United113-108 OT
07/03/24Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks115-106 OT
18/02/24Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks92-87
29/10/23Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks96-84
20/10/23Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United91-101
Melbourne Unitedlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/25AIllawarra Hawks96-88
04/03/25HPerth113-112
01/03/25APerth89-96
27/02/25HPerth105-93
08/02/25HSouth East Melbourne103-93
01/02/25HTasmania JackJumpers94-92
26/01/25ABrisbane Bullets115-88
22/01/25APerth99-93
18/01/25AIllawarra Hawks95-117
13/01/25ANew Zealand Breakers91-89
Illawarra Hawkslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/25HMelbourne United88-96
05/03/25HSouth East Melbourne126-96
02/03/25ASouth East Melbourne94-101
28/02/25HSouth East Melbourne101-94
07/02/25HSydney95-75
05/02/25ANew Zealand Breakers96-82
30/01/25ATasmania JackJumpers102-78
23/01/25ACairns Taipans94-100
20/01/25HBrisbane Bullets121-87
18/01/25HMelbourne United117-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United
NBL 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW67%
HomeLWWWW65%
AwayLWWLW69%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331716
Win %67%65%69%
Points / game96.298.393.9
Allowed / game92.294.989.2
Point differential+4.0+3.4+4.8
Avg total188.3193.2183.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%29%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (7)100% (4)100% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL67%
HomeWWWWL71%
AwayLLWWL62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331716
Win %67%71%62%
Points / game101.5104.698.2
Allowed / game91.991.492.4
Point differential+9.6+13.2+5.8
Avg total193.4196.1190.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%47%44%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (8)20% (5)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Illawarra Hawks33221167%101.591.9+9.6
2 Melbourne United33221167%96.292.2+4.0
3 Perth33201361%100.897.7+3.1
4 Sydney30161453%90.688.4+2.2
5 South East Melbourne34181653%96.193.4+2.8
6 Adelaide31141745%93.795.8-2.0
7 Tasmania JackJumpers29131645%84.088.0-4.1
8 Brisbane Bullets29121741%92.397.9-5.5
9 New Zealand Breakers29101934%85.791.4-5.7
10 Cairns Taipans2982128%88.395.5-7.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Melbourne United29202229100
Illawarra Hawks29223120102
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.