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Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 07 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 115-106 (OT)
25-29 31-28 18-27 26-16 15-6
Position#1
Record20-8
FormLWWLW
Points / game93.4
Allowed / game87.6
Melbourne United 🏆
Australia
vs
Illawarra Hawks
Australia
Position#4
Record15-15
FormWWLLW
Points / game90.4
Allowed / game89.8
AustraliaNBLNBL - Semi-finals· John Cain Arena
Other2023-24
Meetings · Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks
13 Feb 2027
MELB v ILLA
upcoming
18 Oct 2026
MELB89
ILLA91
15 Feb 2026
MELB91
ILLA100
18 Dec 2025
MELB97
ILLA75
19 Mar 2025
MELB71
ILLA80
12 Mar 2025
MELB100
ILLA102
13 Dec 2024
MELB93
ILLA106
13 Mar 2024
MELB100
ILLA94
07 Mar 2024
MELB115
ILLA106
18 Feb 2024
MELB92
ILLA87
29 Oct 2023
MELB96
ILLA84
18 Dec 2022
MELB88
ILLA77
02 Apr 2022
MELB90
ILLA96
27 Mar 2022
MELB77
ILLA92
18 Apr 2021
MELB87
ILLA76
21 Mar 2021
MELB75
ILLA65
08 Feb 2020
MELB95
ILLA72
23 Jan 2019
MELB113
ILLA89
29 Oct 2018
MELB99
ILLA93
18 Feb 2018
MELB84
ILLA94
04 Dec 2017
MELB91
ILLA73
06 Feb 2017
MELB78
ILLA72
16 Oct 2016
MELB95
ILLA83
07 Jan 2016
MELB97
ILLA96
11 Oct 2015
MELB93
ILLA81
07 Feb 2015
MELB76
ILLA82
02 Nov 2014
MELB88
ILLA75
27 Dec 2013
MELB74
ILLA67
10 Nov 2013
MELB81
ILLA76
02 Mar 2013
MELB82
ILLA88
25 Nov 2012
MELB66
ILLA74
18 Mar 2012
MELB61
ILLA71
06 Feb 2011
MELB93
ILLA72
07 Nov 2010
MELB82
ILLA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne United winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illawarra Hawks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Sydney
#7
W
101-85
101
85
+16
96avg 85
A04/01
NBL
Adelaide
#9
L
96-100
96
100
-4
90avg 85
A06/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
W
82-81
82
81
+1
78avg 85
A12/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
86-107
86
107
-21
74avg 85
A19/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#6
W
93-77
93
77
+16
87avg 85
A26/01
NBL
Sydney
#7
L
86-98
86
98
-12
73avg 85
A28/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
99-83
99
83
+16
93avg 85
H03/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
W
94-81
94
81
+13
86avg 85
H11/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#8
L
88-97
88
97
-9
72avg 85
A16/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#4
W
92-87
92
87
+5
84avg 85
H18/02
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-23
20-17
35-19
28-26
23-27
19-19
24-31
30-23
17-22
22-22
23-18
20-19
22-24
22-30
14-25
28-28
21-13
29-26
23-20
20-18
26-22
17-36
22-14
21-26
26-17
31-27
31-15
11-24
27-22
28-17
23-16
16-26
15-28
20-29
19-20
34-20
23-17
15-25
30-24
24-21
181.3Avg total
91.7Scored
89.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)93.487.6181.0+5.871%
Season at home (14)96.187.5183.6+8.679%
Season away (14)90.687.8178.4+2.964%
Last 10 (10)91.789.6181.3+2.160%
Last 5 (5)91.889.2181.0+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)74.080.0154.0-6.00%
vs Similar (10)95.193.8188.9+1.360%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)93.785.4179.1+8.379%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#9
L
89-96
89
96
-7
74avg 79
H20/01
NBL
Perth
#3
W
95-77
95
77
+18
91avg 79
A25/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
W
89-85
89
85
+4
73avg 79
H28/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#6
W
89-76
89
76
+13
84avg 79
H03/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
L
85-88
85
88
-3
70avg 79
A09/02
NBL
Sydney
#7
W
106-95
106
95
+11
104avg 79
A11/02
NBL
Perth
#3
W
108-92
108
92
+16
101avg 79
H15/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#1
L
87-92
87
92
-5
84avg 79
A18/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
76-92
76
92
-16
65avg 79
A28/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
W
88-85
88
85
+3
76avg 79
H04/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-21
24-21
23-26
27-28
28-21
27-14
16-20
24-22
22-22
20-26
22-20
25-17
22-18
28-26
12-22
27-10
21-18
21-23
19-27
24-20
31-17
28-29
20-19
27-30
24-26
32-24
28-21
24-21
17-23
25-15
24-30
21-24
17-29
27-22
19-19
13-22
31-17
11-25
24-21
22-22
179.0Avg total
91.2Scored
87.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)90.489.8180.2+0.550%
Season at home (15)93.590.7184.2+2.960%
Season away (15)87.289.0176.2-1.840%
Last 10 (10)91.287.8179.0+3.460%
Last 5 (5)93.091.2184.2+1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)86.998.7185.6-11.914%
vs Similar (20)88.787.4176.1+1.355%
vs Weaker (3)109.785.3195.0+24.3100%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: +1.8+1.8Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +1.8+1.8
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: +1.8+1.8Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +1.8+1.8
Melbourne UnitedIllawarra Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney
#7
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A04/01
NBL
Adelaide
#9
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A06/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A12/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
44-54
44
54
-10
A19/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#6
W
50-39
50
39
+11
A26/01
NBL
Sydney
#7
L
43-58
43
58
-15
A28/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
57-44
57
44
+13
H03/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
W
55-39
55
39
+16
H11/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#8
L
35-57
35
57
-22
A16/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#4
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H18/02
NBL
90.4Avg total
44.1Scored
46.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.744.790.3+1.053%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.544.592.0+3.160%-
Last 30 away (15)43.844.988.7-1.147%-
Last 10 (10)44.146.390.4-2.230%-
Last 5 (5)45.648.093.6-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)34.031.065.0+3.0100%-
vs Similar (10)42.847.089.8-4.240%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)47.844.291.9+3.658%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#9
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H20/01
NBL
Perth
#3
W
55-35
55
35
+20
A25/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H28/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#6
W
50-44
50
44
+6
H03/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
W
42-41
42
41
+1
A09/02
NBL
Sydney
#7
W
59-46
59
46
+13
A11/02
NBL
Perth
#3
W
56-50
56
50
+6
H15/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#1
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A18/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
44-51
44
51
-7
A28/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H04/03
NBL
90.8Avg total
47.1Scored
43.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.245.190.3+0.250%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.746.492.1-0.740%-
Last 30 away (15)44.743.788.5+1.060%-
Last 10 (10)47.143.790.8+3.460%-
Last 5 (5)48.645.494.0+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)40.448.789.1-8.329%-
vs Similar (20)45.644.089.7+1.650%-
vs Weaker (3)53.743.397.0+10.3100%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 90.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.2 points a game
51%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.925.2
53.7%
50.9%50.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.49.1
34.5%
33.9%27.3
🏀 Free throws18.812.9
68.6%
73.8%12.9
They take 73.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 90.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.2 points a game
51%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.223.4
49.6%
50.9%46.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.88.3
32.2%
33.9%24.9
🏀 Free throws25.818.5
71.7%
73.8%18.5
They take 73.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Melbourne United
WLWWLWLWLW
Illawarra Hawks
WLLWWLWWWL
#1
League position
#4
+2.0
Net rating
+4.0
111.2
Offensive rating
112.0
109.2
Defensive rating
108.1
53.0%
Effective FG%
49.1%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
51.2%
13.7%
Turnover %
16.7%
27.9%
Off. rebound %
39.1%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.35
34.5%
3-point %
32.2%
54.5%
Assist %
55.5%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence111.2 · 112.0Defence109.2 · 108.1Shooting53.0% · 49.1%3-point %34.5% · 32.2%Ball care13.7% · 16.7%Off. rebounds27.9% · 39.1%Free throws0.26 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Melbourne United   ■ Illawarra Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Melbourne United wins
3
Illawarra Hawks wins
DateGameScore
18/02/24Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks92-87
29/10/23Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks96-84
20/10/23Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United91-101
18/12/22Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks88-77
05/12/22Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United93-79
29/10/22Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United100-106 OT
02/04/22Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks90-96
27/03/22Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks77-92
16/01/22Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United84-88
18/05/21Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United87-102
Melbourne Unitedlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/02/24HIllawarra Hawks92-87
16/02/24ACairns Taipans88-97
11/02/24HNew Zealand Breakers94-81
03/02/24HSouth East Melbourne99-83
28/01/24ASydney86-98
26/01/24ABrisbane Bullets93-77
19/01/24ATasmania JackJumpers86-107
12/01/24ANew Zealand Breakers82-81
06/01/24AAdelaide96-100
04/01/24ASydney101-85
Illawarra Hawkslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/24HNew Zealand Breakers88-85
28/02/24ATasmania JackJumpers76-92
18/02/24AMelbourne United87-92
15/02/24HPerth108-92
11/02/24ASydney106-95
09/02/24ANew Zealand Breakers85-88
03/02/24HBrisbane Bullets89-76
28/01/24HNew Zealand Breakers89-85
25/01/24APerth95-77
20/01/24HAdelaide89-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United
NBL 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW71%
HomeWWWWW79%
AwayWLWLL64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281414
Win %71%79%64%
Points / game93.496.190.6
Allowed / game87.687.587.8
Point differential+5.8+8.6+2.9
Avg total181.0183.6178.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%57%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %7%14%0%
Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW50%
HomeLWWWW60%
AwayWLWLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %50%60%40%
Points / game90.493.587.2
Allowed / game89.890.789.0
Point differential+0.5+2.9-1.8
Avg total180.2184.2176.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%27%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)75% (4)50% (6)
Overtime %3%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Melbourne United2820871%93.487.6+5.8
2 Perth28171161%93.991.5+2.4
3 Tasmania JackJumpers29171259%91.684.6+7.0
4 Illawarra Hawks30151550%90.489.8+0.5
5 New Zealand Breakers30141647%88.988.1+0.7
6 Brisbane Bullets28131546%87.890.5-2.7
7 Sydney29131645%94.892.6+2.2
8 Cairns Taipans28121643%89.592.5-3.0
9 Adelaide28121643%87.891.5-3.8
10 South East Melbourne28101836%86.696.1-9.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Melbourne United2531182615115
Illawarra Hawks292827166106
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