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Melbourne United vs Perth Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 04 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 113-112
26-37 32-25 29-22 26-28
Position#2
Record20-11
FormWWWWL
Points / game95.6
Allowed / game91.6
vs
Position#3
Record20-12
FormWWWLW
Points / game100.4
Allowed / game97.2
AustraliaNBLNBL - Semi-finals· John Cain Arena
Other2024-25
Meetings · Melbourne United v Perth
07 Feb 2027
MELB v PERT
upcoming
23 Nov 2025
MELB98
PERT87
04 Mar 2025
MELB113
PERT112
27 Feb 2025
MELB105
PERT93
09 Nov 2024
MELB106
PERT97
23 Dec 2023
MELB109
PERT103
06 Nov 2023
MELB95
PERT102
31 Oct 2022
MELB94
PERT77
10 Mar 2022
MELB87
PERT97
12 Feb 2022
MELB93
PERT87
25 Jun 2021
MELB81
PERT76
20 Jun 2021
MELB83
PERT74
05 May 2021
MELB69
PERT82
20 Feb 2021
MELB85
PERT89
07 Feb 2021
MELB75
PERT71
29 Jan 2020
MELB77
PERT67
20 Oct 2019
MELB93
PERT95
17 Mar 2019
MELB84
PERT97
10 Mar 2019
MELB92
PERT74
17 Feb 2019
MELB81
PERT70
17 Dec 2018
MELB82
PERT65
16 Feb 2018
MELB97
PERT85
19 Nov 2017
MELB59
PERT91
12 Feb 2017
MELB94
PERT96
23 Oct 2016
MELB69
PERT72
27 Dec 2015
MELB92
PERT87
29 Oct 2015
MELB75
PERT73
28 Dec 2014
MELB80
PERT81
23 Nov 2014
MELB91
PERT76
02 Feb 2014
MELB57
PERT81
20 Oct 2013
MELB71
PERT75
17 Feb 2013
MELB79
PERT83
21 Oct 2012
MELB65
PERT74
23 Mar 2012
MELB71
PERT72
18 Nov 2011
MELB87
PERT82
19 Nov 2010
MELB84
PERT93
24 Oct 2010
MELB66
PERT91
06 Feb 2010
MELB78
PERT84
20 Jan 2010
MELB100
PERT86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne United winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Perth winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#6
L
81-100
81
100
-19
70avg 87
A04/01
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
90-88
90
88
+2
82avg 87
A09/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
91-89
91
89
+2
86avg 87
A13/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
95-117
95
117
-22
79avg 87
A18/01
NBL
Perth
#3
W
99-93
99
93
+6
93avg 87
A22/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
115-88
115
88
+27
112avg 87
A26/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
94-92
94
92
+2
90avg 87
H01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
103-93
103
93
+10
100avg 87
H08/02
NBL
Perth
#3
W
105-93
105
93
+12
100avg 87
H27/02
NBL
Perth
#3
L
89-96
89
96
-7
78avg 87
A01/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-27
25-28
20-22
19-23
32-16
25-25
13-23
20-24
25-26
16-16
21-29
29-18
25-29
21-29
20-27
29-32
21-23
25-20
25-25
28-25
26-26
35-14
26-21
28-27
21-32
30-29
17-16
26-15
30-26
16-28
30-22
27-17
23-17
26-33
32-21
24-22
36-21
19-20
19-22
15-33
191.1Avg total
96.2Scored
94.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)95.691.6187.3+4.065%
Season at home (16)97.493.9191.2+3.562%
Season away (15)93.889.3183.1+4.567%
Last 10 (10)96.294.9191.1+1.370%
Last 5 (5)101.292.4193.6+8.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)93.3103.3196.7-10.033%
vs Similar ◀ (12)96.291.2187.4+4.975%
vs Weaker (15)96.290.5186.7+5.760%
This opponent (Perth) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PerthAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPerth
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
112-85
112
85
+27
98avg 90
A15/01
NBL
Adelaide
#6
W
110-103
110
103
+7
101avg 90
H17/01
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
93-99
93
99
-6
75avg 90
H22/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
L
116-125 OT
116
125
-9
90avg 90
H25/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
100-99
100
99
+1
101avg 90
H31/01
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
104-97
104
97
+7
87avg 90
A02/02
NBL
Adelaide
#6
W
112-104
112
104
+8
108avg 90
H07/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
122-105
122
105
+17
124avg 90
H11/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
93-105
93
105
-12
77avg 90
A27/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
W
96-89
96
89
+7
91avg 90
H01/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-27
38-15
20-24
27-19
22-24
30-17
24-32
34-30
23-21
20-25
25-25
25-28
18-22
29-34
35-17
18-27
27-26
22-23
17-28
34-22
32-21
24-27
29-26
19-23
20-27
29-29
32-22
31-26
29-28
33-39
34-23
26-15
17-23
33-26
21-32
22-24
21-36
20-19
22-19
33-15
206.9Avg total
105.8Scored
101.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)100.497.2197.6+3.262%
Season at home (17)102.799.1201.8+3.671%
Season away (15)97.995.1192.9+2.853%
Last 10 (10)105.8101.1206.9+4.770%
Last 5 (5)105.4100.0205.4+5.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)104.0115.3219.3-11.333%
vs Similar ◀ (11)93.996.8190.7-2.955%
vs Weaker (16)104.894.6199.3+10.275%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: -1.9-1.9Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: +2.4+2.4Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +4.0+4.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: -1.9-1.9Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: +2.4+2.4Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +4.0+4.0
Melbourne UnitedPerth
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#6
L
42-55
42
55
-13
A04/01
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
57-41
57
41
+16
A09/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A13/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
46-58
46
58
-12
A18/01
NBL
Perth
#3
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A22/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
61-40
61
40
+21
A26/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
L
51-61
51
61
-10
H01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
46-54
46
54
-8
H08/02
NBL
Perth
#3
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H27/02
NBL
Perth
#3
W
55-41
55
41
+14
A01/03
NBL
97.9Avg total
49.4Scored
48.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.747.296.9+2.657%-
Last 30 at home (15)50.551.0101.5-0.540%-
Last 30 away (15)48.943.392.3+5.673%-
Last 10 (10)49.448.597.9+0.940%-
Last 5 (5)52.449.2101.6+3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)44.347.091.3-2.767%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)52.247.299.4+5.167%-
vs Weaker (15)48.847.296.0+1.647%-
This opponent (Perth) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PerthLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
65-42
65
42
+23
A15/01
NBL
Adelaide
#6
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H17/01
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H22/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
L
47-56
47
56
-9
H25/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
D
49-49
49
49
+0
H31/01
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
56-48
56
48
+8
A02/02
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
49-56
49
56
-7
H07/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
62-67
62
67
-5
H11/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
W
50-49
50
49
+1
A27/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
41-55
41
55
-14
H01/03
NBL
102.3Avg total
51.4Scored
50.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.649.7101.3+2.047%-
Last 30 at home (15)51.851.9103.7-0.133%-
Last 30 away (15)51.547.498.9+4.160%-
Last 10 (10)51.450.9102.3+0.540%-
Last 5 (5)51.655.0106.6-3.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)54.357.0111.3-2.733%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)50.052.3102.3-2.336%-
vs Weaker (16)52.246.598.8+5.856%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 95.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.3 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.424.4
55.0%
52.3%48.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.811.3
33.4%
35.1%33.9
🏀 Free throws17.412.3
70.7%
74.7%12.3
They take 78.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Perththeir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth: 105.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.3 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.125.3
50.5%
52.3%50.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.010.9
37.6%
35.1%32.7
🏀 Free throws27.222.3
82.0%
74.7%22.3
They take 79.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Melbourne United
LWWWWWLWWL
Perth
WLWWWWLLWW
#2
League position
#3
+0.8
Net rating
+6.6
113.8
Offensive rating
122.5
112.9
Defensive rating
115.8
52.9%
Effective FG%
52.7%
51.1%
Opp. effective FG%
54.5%
12.7%
Turnover %
11.4%
30.4%
Off. rebound %
33.3%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.34
33.4%
3-point %
37.6%
61.3%
Assist %
49.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence113.8 · 122.5Defence112.9 · 115.8Shooting52.9% · 52.7%3-point %33.4% · 37.6%Ball care12.7% · 11.4%Off. rebounds30.4% · 33.3%Free throws0.22 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Melbourne United   ■ Perth
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Melbourne United wins
3
Perth wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/25APerth89-96
27/02/25HPerth105-93
08/02/25HSouth East Melbourne103-93
01/02/25HTasmania JackJumpers94-92
26/01/25ABrisbane Bullets115-88
22/01/25APerth99-93
18/01/25AIllawarra Hawks95-117
13/01/25ANew Zealand Breakers91-89
09/01/25ASydney90-88
04/01/25AAdelaide81-100
Perthlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/25HMelbourne United96-89
27/02/25AMelbourne United93-105
11/02/25HSouth East Melbourne122-105
07/02/25HAdelaide112-104
02/02/25ASydney104-97
31/01/25HSouth East Melbourne100-99
25/01/25HCairns Taipans116-125 OT
22/01/25HMelbourne United93-99
17/01/25HAdelaide110-103
15/01/25ABrisbane Bullets112-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United
NBL 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL65%
HomeLLWWW62%
AwayWLWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311615
Win %65%62%67%
Points / game95.697.493.8
Allowed / game91.693.989.3
Point differential+4.0+3.5+4.5
Avg total187.3191.2183.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%31%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (6)100% (3)100% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Perth
NBL 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW62%
HomeLWWWW71%
AwayWWWWL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321715
Win %62%71%53%
Points / game100.4102.797.9
Allowed / game97.299.195.1
Point differential+3.2+3.6+2.8
Avg total197.6201.8192.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%24%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)67% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %6%6%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Illawarra Hawks31211068%101.291.6+9.5
2 Melbourne United31201165%95.691.6+4.0
3 Perth32201262%100.497.2+3.2
4 South East Melbourne33181555%96.192.4+3.8
5 Sydney30161453%90.688.4+2.2
6 Adelaide31141745%93.795.8-2.0
7 Tasmania JackJumpers29131645%84.088.0-4.1
8 Brisbane Bullets29121741%92.397.9-5.5
9 New Zealand Breakers29101934%85.791.4-5.7
10 Cairns Taipans2982128%88.395.5-7.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Melbourne United26322926113
Perth37252228112
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