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Illinois State vs Murray State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 19 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 78-61
36-28 42-33
Position#96
Record17-10
FormLWLWL
Points / game76.4
Allowed / game68.1
Illinois State 🏆
USA
vs
Murray State
USA
Position#102
Record19-9
FormWWLWL
Points / game84.3
Allowed / game79.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Illinois State v Murray State
18 Feb 2026
ILLI78
MURR61
03 Dec 2023
ILLI76
MURR72
15 Feb 2023
ILLI75
MURR76
16 Nov 2021
ILLI65
MURR77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Murray State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
L
89-94
89
94
-5
A15/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
88-62
88
62
+26
H17/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
59-54
59
54
+5
H22/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
69-80
69
80
-11
A24/01
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
70-65
70
65
+5
A29/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H04/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
86-76
86
76
+10
H07/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
80-88
80
88
-8
A10/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
86-64
86
64
+22
H13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
56-83
56
83
-27
A15/02
NCAA
1H
2H
42-51
47-43
44-29
44-33
24-16
35-38
36-44
33-36
35-29
35-36
24-22
26-32
47-32
39-44
32-45
48-43
34-34
52-30
26-33
30-50
145.3Avg total
73.3Scored
72.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)76.468.1144.4+8.363%
Season at home (15)78.960.3139.3+18.687%
Season away (12)73.277.8150.9-4.633%
Last 10 (10)73.372.0145.3+1.350%
Last 5 (5)71.673.0144.6-1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)78.083.0161.0-5.00%
vs Similar ◀ (11)67.066.8133.8+0.255%
vs Weaker (17)79.467.9147.3+11.471%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
85-81
85
81
+4
H17/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
90-101
90
101
-11
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
76-81
76
81
-5
A24/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
65-70
65
70
-5
H29/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
86-103
86
103
-17
A01/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
81-74
81
74
+7
H04/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
91-81
91
81
+10
A07/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
60-89
60
89
-29
H10/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
74-72
74
72
+2
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
H15/02
NCAA
1H
2H
47-37
38-44
41-44
49-57
38-37
38-44
29-35
36-35
40-54
46-49
40-33
41-41
43-34
48-47
31-39
29-50
43-21
31-51
39-24
31-63
161.7Avg total
77.8Scored
83.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)84.379.5163.8+4.868%
Season at home (16)84.174.9159.0+9.281%
Season away (12)84.685.7170.2-1.150%
Last 10 (10)77.883.9161.7-6.140%
Last 5 (5)75.280.6155.8-5.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)78.187.2165.4-9.125%
vs Similar ◀ (14)84.578.6163.1+5.971%
vs Weaker (8)86.168.8154.9+17.4100%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +0.9+0.91st half: +3.3+3.32nd half2nd half: +0.4+0.42nd half: -9.4-9.4
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +0.9+0.91st half: +3.3+3.32nd half2nd half: +0.4+0.42nd half: -9.4-9.4
Illinois StateMurray State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
L
42-51
42
51
-9
A15/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
44-29
44
29
+15
H17/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
24-16
24
16
+8
H22/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A24/01
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A29/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
24-22
24
22
+2
H04/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H07/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A10/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A15/02
NCAA
67.9Avg total
34.4Scored
33.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.731.467.1+4.357%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.126.966.0+12.282%-
Last 30 away (13)31.237.368.5-6.223%-
Last 10 (10)34.433.567.9+0.950%-
Last 5 (5)32.633.265.8-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)33.040.073.0-7.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)29.931.461.3-1.545%-
vs Weaker (17)38.831.570.4+7.365%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H17/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A24/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H29/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A01/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H04/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A07/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H10/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
43-21
43
21
+22
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H15/02
NCAA
74.9Avg total
39.1Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.635.074.6+4.670%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.932.473.3+8.688%-
Last 30 away (13)37.938.576.4-0.546%-
Last 10 (10)39.135.874.9+3.360%-
Last 5 (5)39.230.269.4+9.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)35.638.273.9-2.662%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)39.436.375.7+3.157%-
vs Weaker (8)44.029.573.5+14.5100%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Illinois State wins
4
Murray State wins
DateGameScore
29/01/26Murray State v Illinois State65-70
03/01/25Murray State v Illinois State68-74
31/01/24Murray State v Illinois State59-61
03/12/23Illinois State v Murray State76-72
16/02/23Illinois State v Murray State75-76
02/12/22Murray State v Illinois State70-67 OT
17/11/21Illinois State v Murray State65-77
05/12/20Murray State v Illinois State76-65
Illinois Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/26AIllinois (Chi.)56-83
13/02/26HValparaiso86-64
10/02/26AEvansville80-88
07/02/26HDrake86-76
04/02/26HSouthern Illinois50-54
29/01/26AMurray State70-65
24/01/26ABelmont69-80
22/01/26HNorthern Iowa59-54
17/01/26HBradley88-62
15/01/26AIndiana State89-94
Murray Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/26HBelmont70-87
13/02/26AIndiana State74-72
10/02/26HNorthern Iowa60-89
07/02/26ASouthern Illinois91-81
04/02/26HIllinois (Chi.)81-74
01/02/26ABelmont86-103
29/01/26HIllinois State65-70
24/01/26ANorthern Iowa76-81
22/01/26ADrake90-101
17/01/26HIndiana State85-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL63%
HomeWWLWW87%
AwayLLWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271512
Win %63%87%33%
Points / game76.478.973.2
Allowed / game68.160.377.8
Point differential+8.3+18.6-4.6
Avg total144.4139.3150.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%73%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)33% (3)40% (5)
Overtime %4%7%0%
Murray State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL68%
HomeWLWLL81%
AwayLLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281612
Win %68%81%50%
Points / game84.384.184.6
Allowed / game79.574.985.7
Point differential+4.8+9.2-1.1
Avg total163.8159.0170.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%44%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (8)75% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont2924583%82.773.5+9.2
2 Murray State2819968%84.379.5+4.8
3 Northern Iowa28181064%69.561.1+8.4
4 Bradley28181064%76.972.6+4.3
5 Illinois State27171063%76.468.1+8.3
6 Illinois (Chi.)28161257%75.468.9+6.5
7 Valparaiso28151354%71.671.0+0.6
8 Southern Illinois28131546%73.870.7+3.1
9 Drake29121741%76.275.2+1.0
10 Indiana State28101836%74.675.1-0.6
11 Evansville2762122%66.675.3-8.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Illinois State364278
Murray State283361
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