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Independiente de Oliva vs Penarol Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 14 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#8
Record1-1
FormWWLLW
Points / game100.0
Allowed / game95.0
vs
Position#2
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game73.8
ArgentinaLiga A· Polideportivo Independiente DSC
Other2026-27
Meetings · Independiente de Oliva v Penarol
14 Jan 2027
INDE v PENA
upcoming
27 Mar 2026
INDE102
PENA107
18 Dec 2024
INDE93
PENA107
01 Dec 2023
INDE83
PENA75
01 Nov 2022
INDE83
PENA80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Independiente de Oliva win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Independiente de Oliva
5.0out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Around their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 87.1
84.6▼ 2.5
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 87.4
82.6▼ 4.8
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 56%
57%▲ 1%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 14.6
13.8▼ 0.8
🔥 Form · Penarol
5.0out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Around their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 82.0
80.2▼ 1.8
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 80.2
75.8▼ 4.4
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 58%
55%▼ 2%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 14.5
13.0▼ 1.5
Independiente de OlivaArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
La Union
#10
L
62-86
62
86
-24
A27/04
Liga A
La Union
#10
W
83-78
83
78
+5
H01/05
Liga A
La Union
#10
W
97-92
97
92
+5
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
66-78
66
78
-12
A09/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A10/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
W
78-76
78
76
+2
H14/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
W
74-66
74
66
+8
H16/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
71-81
71
81
-10
A19/05
Liga A
Ferro
#14
L
92-97
92
97
-5
H09/10
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
108-93
108
93
+15
H20/10
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-27
23-17
13-25
12-17
24-12
14-27
17-20
28-19
25-20
21-25
32-25
19-22
16-23
21-25
23-16
6-14
20-15
17-16
11-30
24-16
25-21
22-16
16-21
15-18
19-19
19-22
13-15
23-10
18-23
22-21
18-18
13-19
28-33
23-14
23-27
18-23
26-18
34-22
25-25
23-28
162.7Avg total
80.3Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)100.095.0195.0+5.050%
Season at home (2)100.095.0195.0+5.050%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.382.4162.7-2.150%
Last 5 (5)84.682.6167.2+2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)102.0110.0212.0-8.00%
vs Similar (20)82.385.1167.4-2.845%
vs Weaker (9)93.987.7181.6+6.267%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Obera TC
#5
L
81-84
81
84
-3
A17/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
W
87-80
87
80
+7
H20/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
91-97
91
97
-6
A24/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
78-80
78
80
-2
A26/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
W
87-75
87
75
+12
H01/05
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
68-84
68
84
-16
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#5
W
62-57
62
57
+5
H30/09
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
84-77
84
77
+7
A14/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#16
W
92-85
92
85
+7
A17/10
Liga A
San Martin
#18
W
95-76
95
76
+19
H28/10
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-26
17-21
21-15
25-22
25-25
22-22
23-18
17-15
30-29
13-24
21-17
27-27
25-21
18-29
20-12
15-18
22-20
18-23
25-21
22-11
19-22
23-26
10-22
16-14
17-14
13-15
14-6
18-22
18-26
27-17
26-23
13-11
28-22
17-22
26-18
21-23
23-11
25-21
24-25
23-19
162.0Avg total
82.5Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.273.8157.0+9.5100%
Season at home (2)78.566.5145.0+12.0100%
Season away (2)88.081.0169.0+7.0100%
Last 10 (10)82.579.5162.0+3.060%
Last 5 (5)80.275.8156.0+4.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)71.581.0152.5-9.550%
vs Similar (20)83.081.3164.4+1.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)82.176.9159.0+5.262%
This opponent (Independiente de Oliva) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: +1.5+1.5
Independiente de OlivaPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Independiente de OlivaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
La Union
#10
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A27/04
Liga A
La Union
#10
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H01/05
Liga A
La Union
#10
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A09/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A10/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H14/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H16/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
40-44
40
44
-4
A19/05
Liga A
Ferro
#14
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H09/10
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
60-40
60
40
+20
H20/10
Liga A
84.7Avg total
43.1Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.343.287.5+1.047%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.543.389.8+3.257%-
Last 30 away (16)42.343.285.5-0.938%-
Last 10 (10)43.141.684.7+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)47.241.889.0+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)44.037.081.0+7.0100%-
vs Similar (20)43.243.887.0-0.540%-
vs Weaker (9)46.642.789.2+3.956%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Obera TC
#5
L
35-47
35
47
-12
A17/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
D
47-47
47
47
+0
H20/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A24/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A26/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H01/05
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#5
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H30/09
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A14/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#16
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A17/10
Liga A
San Martin
#18
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H28/10
Liga A
85.4Avg total
41.8Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.142.182.2-2.040%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.839.577.3-1.736%-
Last 30 away (16)42.144.486.5-2.244%-
Last 10 (10)41.843.685.4-1.840%-
Last 5 (5)42.039.281.2+2.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)43.043.086.0+0.050%-
vs Similar (20)40.443.183.5-2.835%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)38.839.278.0-0.550%-
This opponent (Independiente de Oliva) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Independiente de Olivatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Independiente de Oliva: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.920.0
52.8%
54.4%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.38.0
29.3%
32.6%24.0
🏀 Free throws22.316.0
71.7%
72.7%16.0
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 82.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.419.9
56.2%
54.4%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.08.4
32.3%
32.6%25.2
🏀 Free throws25.617.5
68.4%
72.7%17.5
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Independiente de Oliva
WLLWWLLWWL
Penarol
WWWWLWLLWL
#8
League position
#2
-3.2
Net rating
+4.1
107.5
Offensive rating
113.4
110.8
Defensive rating
109.3
49.1%
Effective FG%
52.9%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
51.2%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.42
29.3%
3-point %
32.3%
43.9%
Assist %
48.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence107.5 · 113.4Defence110.8 · 109.3Shooting49.1% · 52.9%3-point %29.3% · 32.3%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.34 · 0.42Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Independiente de Oliva   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Independiente de Oliva wins
4
Penarol wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/10/26HLanus108-93
09/10/26HFerro92-97
19/05/26AGimnasia71-81
16/05/26HGimnasia74-66
14/05/26HGimnasia78-76
10/05/26AGimnasia72-77
09/05/26AGimnasia66-78
03/05/26HLa Union97-92
01/05/26HLa Union83-78
27/04/26ALa Union62-86
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26HSan Martin95-76
17/10/26ASan Lorenzo92-85
14/10/26ALanus84-77
30/09/26HGimnasia62-57
03/05/26HFerro68-84
01/05/26HFerro87-75
26/04/26AFerro78-80
24/04/26AFerro91-97
20/04/26HFerro87-80
17/04/26AObera TC81-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Independiente de Oliva
Liga A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
HomeLW50%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %50%50%-
Points / game100.0100.0-
Allowed / game95.095.0-
Point differential+5.0+5.0-
Avg total195.0195.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Penarol
Liga A 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game83.278.588.0
Allowed / game73.866.581.0
Point differential+9.5+12.0+7.0
Avg total157.0145.0169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Quimsa550100%85.674.0+11.6
2 Penarol440100%83.273.8+9.5
3 Atenas43175%84.881.2+3.5
4 Instituto de Cordoba43175%79.078.2+0.8
5 Gimnasia75271%78.975.1+3.7
6 Olimpico53260%88.683.8+4.8
7 Argentino53260%80.678.8+1.8
8 Independiente de Oliva21150%100.095.0+5.0
9 Boca Juniors63350%88.285.0+3.2
10 Platense63350%80.380.3+0.0
11 Racing de Chivilcoy63350%80.382.5-2.2
12 Lanus83538%75.879.0-3.2
13 La Union31233%81.384.0-2.7
14 Ferro62433%82.085.5-3.5
15 Regatas41325%74.878.2-3.5
16 San Lorenzo41325%76.280.8-4.5
17 Obera TC51420%73.481.2-7.8
18 San Martin6060%84.895.2-10.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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