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Independiente de Oliva vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 102-107
22-31 31-26 20-27 29-23
Position#8
Record18-12
FormWWLLL
Points / game86.4
Allowed / game82.2
Independiente de Oliva
Argentina
vs
Penarol 🏆
Argentina
Position#11
Record15-14
FormWWWLL
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game80.2
ArgentinaLiga A· Polideportivo Independiente DSC
Other2025-26
Meetings · Independiente de Oliva v Penarol
14 Jan 2027
INDE v PENA
upcoming
27 Mar 2026
INDE102
PENA107
18 Dec 2024
INDE93
PENA107
01 Dec 2023
INDE83
PENA75
01 Nov 2022
INDE83
PENA80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Independiente de Oliva winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Independiente de OlivaArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOliva
Date
Competition
San Lorenzo
#17
W
80-69
80
69
+11
78avg 79
A29/01
Liga A
San Martin
#12
W
90-80
90
80
+10
88avg 79
H05/02
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
82-88
82
88
-6
73avg 79
A11/02
Liga A
Union De Santa Fe
#15
W
103-75
103
75
+28
99avg 79
H16/02
Liga A
Racing de Chivilcoy
#14
L
84-89
84
89
-5
78avg 79
A07/03
Liga A
Argentino
#19
W
95-83
95
83
+12
87avg 79
A08/03
Liga A
Regatas
#4
W
89-83
89
83
+6
80avg 79
H13/03
Liga A
La Union
#10
L
91-103
91
103
-12
77avg 79
A19/03
Liga A
Obera TC
#5
L
96-104 OT
96
104
-8
87avg 79
A21/03
Liga A
Instituto de Cordoba
#9
L
78-89
78
89
-11
68avg 79
A24/03
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-24
15-14
17-16
31-15
22-22
28-19
17-20
23-19
20-24
19-20
25-23
18-21
23-16
29-23
32-19
19-17
21-22
20-22
19-25
24-20
16-19
33-15
27-28
19-21
21-20
17-21
27-14
24-28
27-32
23-25
25-20
16-26
27-34
20-13
20-23
20-17
17-31
16-17
25-22
20-19
175.1Avg total
88.8Scored
86.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)86.482.2168.6+4.360%
Season at home (14)89.581.4170.9+8.179%
Season away (16)83.882.8166.6+0.944%
Last 10 (10)88.886.3175.1+2.550%
Last 5 (5)89.892.4182.2-2.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)83.086.0169.0-3.00%
vs Similar ◀ (19)85.283.7168.9+1.558%
vs Weaker (10)89.178.8167.9+10.370%
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Obras Sanitarias
#7
L
73-81
73
81
-8
66avg 72
H24/01
Liga A
Quimsa
#3
L
66-89
66
89
-23
56avg 72
A03/02
Liga A
Olimpico
#13
W
87-74
87
74
+13
82avg 72
A05/02
Liga A
Argentino
#19
L
69-74
69
74
-5
60avg 72
H15/02
Liga A
San Martin
#12
L
84-88
84
88
-4
78avg 72
A20/02
Liga A
Regatas
#4
W
86-67
86
67
+19
82avg 72
A22/02
Liga A
Platense
#16
W
79-72
79
72
+7
76avg 72
H07/03
Liga A
Racing de Chivilcoy
#14
W
92-64
92
64
+28
89avg 72
H13/03
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#17
L
71-79
71
79
-8
67avg 72
H15/03
Liga A
Boca Juniors
#2
L
70-86
70
86
-16
57avg 72
A18/03
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-25
11-16
14-18
28-22
16-20
25-25
13-19
12-25
20-13
25-24
24-19
18-18
19-24
15-15
20-15
15-20
19-18
32-29
16-28
17-13
23-14
17-17
29-20
17-16
23-24
20-12
19-15
17-21
17-19
14-20
31-10
30-15
18-19
20-17
12-27
21-16
25-19
10-25
12-23
23-19
155.1Avg total
77.7Scored
77.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)80.080.2160.2-0.352%
Season at home (16)79.477.2156.6+2.162%
Season away (13)80.783.9164.6-3.238%
Last 10 (10)77.777.4155.1+0.340%
Last 5 (5)79.673.6153.2+6.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)74.585.0159.5-10.550%
vs Similar ◀ (23)81.379.9161.2+1.557%
vs Weaker (3)79.775.0154.7+4.733%
This opponent (Independiente de Oliva) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.3-3.3Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: +1.3+1.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.3-3.3Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: +1.3+1.3
Independiente de OlivaPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Independiente de OlivaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Lorenzo
#17
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A29/01
Liga A
San Martin
#12
W
50-41
50
41
+9
H05/02
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A11/02
Liga A
Union De Santa Fe
#15
W
52-39
52
39
+13
H16/02
Liga A
Racing de Chivilcoy
#14
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A07/03
Liga A
Argentino
#19
W
49-34
49
34
+15
A08/03
Liga A
Regatas
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H13/03
Liga A
La Union
#10
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A19/03
Liga A
Obera TC
#5
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A21/03
Liga A
Instituto de Cordoba
#9
L
33-48
33
48
-15
A24/03
Liga A
86.4Avg total
43.1Scored
43.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.140.986.1+4.257%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.740.586.2+5.264%-
Last 30 away (16)44.641.385.9+3.350%-
Last 10 (10)43.143.386.4-0.230%-
Last 5 (5)43.445.488.8-2.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)50.045.095.0+5.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)44.342.186.4+2.247%-
vs Weaker (10)46.338.384.6+8.070%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Obras Sanitarias
#7
L
31-41
31
41
-10
H24/01
Liga A
Quimsa
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A03/02
Liga A
Olimpico
#13
W
45-37
45
37
+8
A05/02
Liga A
Argentino
#19
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H15/02
Liga A
San Martin
#12
W
51-47
51
47
+4
A20/02
Liga A
Regatas
#4
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A22/02
Liga A
Platense
#16
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H07/03
Liga A
Racing de Chivilcoy
#14
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H13/03
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#17
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H15/03
Liga A
Boca Juniors
#2
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A18/03
Liga A
78.4Avg total
38.9Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.741.281.8-0.543%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.140.579.6-1.441%-
Last 30 away (13)42.742.184.8+0.646%-
Last 10 (10)38.939.578.4-0.650%-
Last 5 (5)37.437.274.6+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)43.246.589.8-3.225%-
vs Similar ◀ (23)40.940.781.7+0.252%-
vs Weaker (3)35.337.372.7-2.00%-
This opponent (Independiente de Oliva) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Independiente de Olivatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Independiente de Oliva: 86.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.3 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.221.0
55.0%
53.7%42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.510.1
34.2%
32.9%30.3
🏀 Free throws18.414.3
77.7%
71.5%14.3
They take 67.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 78.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.3 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.517.0
52.3%
53.7%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.99.5
35.3%
32.9%28.5
🏀 Free throws21.615.9
73.6%
71.5%15.9
They take 59.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Independiente de Oliva
LLLWWLWLWW
Penarol
LLWWWLLWLL
#8
League position
#11
+1.7
Net rating
+2.2
113.9
Offensive rating
109.9
112.2
Defensive rating
107.7
53.4%
Effective FG%
52.6%
51.7%
Opp. effective FG%
49.5%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.36
34.2%
3-point %
35.3%
46.3%
Assist %
50.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence113.9 · 109.9Defence112.2 · 107.7Shooting53.4% · 52.6%3-point %34.2% · 35.3%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.27 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Independiente de Oliva   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Independiente de Oliva wins
3
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
21/12/25Penarol v Independiente de Oliva76-87
08/05/25Penarol v Independiente de Oliva99-74
19/12/24Independiente de Oliva v Penarol93-107
18/05/24Penarol v Independiente de Oliva86-77
02/12/23Independiente de Oliva v Penarol83-75
11/03/23Penarol v Independiente de Oliva93-97
02/11/22Independiente de Oliva v Penarol83-80
Independiente de Olivalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/03/26AInstituto de Cordoba78-89
21/03/26AObera TC96-104 OT
19/03/26ALa Union91-103
13/03/26HRegatas89-83
08/03/26AArgentino95-83
07/03/26ARacing de Chivilcoy84-89
16/02/26HUnion De Santa Fe103-75
11/02/26AFerro82-88
05/02/26HSan Martin90-80
29/01/26ASan Lorenzo80-69
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/03/26ABoca Juniors70-86
15/03/26HSan Lorenzo71-79
13/03/26HRacing de Chivilcoy92-64
07/03/26HPlatense79-72
22/02/26ARegatas86-67
20/02/26ASan Martin84-88
15/02/26HArgentino69-74
05/02/26AOlimpico87-74
03/02/26AQuimsa66-89
24/01/26HObras Sanitarias73-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Independiente de Oliva
Liga A 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL60%
HomeWWWWW79%
AwayLWLLL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301416
Win %60%79%44%
Points / game86.489.583.8
Allowed / game82.281.482.8
Point differential+4.3+8.1+0.9
Avg total168.6170.9166.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%29%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)50% (6)25% (4)
Overtime %3%0%6%
Penarol
Liga A 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL52%
HomeLLWWL62%
AwayLWLWL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291613
Win %52%62%38%
Points / game80.079.480.7
Allowed / game80.277.283.9
Point differential-0.3+2.1-3.2
Avg total160.2156.6164.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%19%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)71% (7)33% (3)
Overtime %3%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Obera TC30201067%81.376.3+5.0
2 Quimsa31201165%82.575.9+6.6
3 Gimnasia31201165%81.476.1+5.2
4 La Union31191261%81.679.3+2.3
5 Independiente de Oliva30181260%86.482.2+4.3
6 Obras Sanitarias29171259%81.679.0+2.6
7 Regatas31181358%77.776.1+1.6
8 Ferro31181358%83.582.5+0.9
9 Boca Juniors30171357%80.777.3+3.4
10 Instituto de Cordoba30171357%77.075.2+1.8
11 Penarol29151452%80.080.2-0.3
12 San Martin31141745%74.775.8-1.1
13 San Lorenzo31131842%79.982.7-2.8
14 Olimpico32131941%79.279.5-0.3
15 Union De Santa Fe30121840%82.184.7-2.6
16 Racing de Chivilcoy32122038%78.881.7-2.8
17 Platense30111937%82.385.3-3.0
18 Atenas2992031%75.280.4-5.2
19 Argentino3062420%73.889.7-15.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Independiente de Oliva22312029102
Penarol31262723107
← all games of the day
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