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Independiente de Oliva vs Penarol Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 14 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#7
Record2-2
FormLLWLW
Points / game99.5
Allowed / game89.0
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.0/10
Around normal
4.8/10
Around normal
Position#2
Record7-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game82.1
Allowed / game74.8
ArgentinaLiga A· Polideportivo Independiente DSC
Other2026-27
Meetings · Independiente de Oliva v Penarol
14 Jan 2027
INDE v PENA
upcoming
27 Mar 2026
INDE102
PENA107
18 Dec 2024
INDE93
PENA107
01 Dec 2023
INDE83
PENA75
01 Nov 2022
INDE83
PENA80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Independiente de Oliva win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Independiente de OlivaArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOliva
Date
Competition
La Union
#10
W
97-92
97
92
+5
88avg 78
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
66-78
66
78
-12
54avg 78
A09/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
72-77
72
77
-5
57avg 78
A10/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
W
78-76
78
76
+2
66avg 78
H14/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
W
74-66
74
66
+8
64avg 78
H16/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
71-81
71
81
-10
55avg 78
A19/05
Liga A
Ferro
#16
L
92-97
92
97
-5
86avg 78
H09/10
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
108-93
108
93
+15
106avg 78
H20/10
Liga A
Gimnasia
#3
L
76-77 OT
76
77
-1
no box
H06/11
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#17
W
122-89
122
89
+33
no box
H15/11
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-20
21-25
32-25
19-22
16-23
21-25
23-16
6-14
20-15
17-16
11-30
24-16
25-21
22-16
16-21
15-18
19-19
19-22
13-15
23-10
18-23
22-21
18-18
13-19
28-33
23-14
23-27
18-23
26-18
34-22
25-25
23-28
21-19
22-15
6-14
13-14
21-27
32-11
30-24
39-27
168.2Avg total
85.6Scored
82.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)99.589.0188.5+10.550%
Season at home (4)99.589.0188.5+10.550%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)85.682.6168.2+3.050%
Last 5 (5)93.887.4181.2+6.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)102.0110.0212.0-8.00%
vs Similar ◀ (19)83.186.1169.1-3.042%
vs Weaker (10)95.487.4182.8+8.060%
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Ferro
#6
W
87-75
87
75
+12
83avg 75
H01/05
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
68-84
68
84
-16
61avg 75
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#3
W
62-57
62
57
+5
54avg 75
H30/09
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
84-77
84
77
+7
77avg 75
A14/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#17
W
92-85
92
85
+7
87avg 75
A17/10
Liga A
San Martin
#18
W
95-76
95
76
+19
86avg 75
H28/10
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
L
73-78
73
78
-5
no box
A31/10
Liga A
Olimpico
#8
W
87-74
87
74
+13
no box
A03/11
Liga A
Platense
#11
W
79-75
79
75
+4
no box
A11/11
Liga A
Ferro
#16
W
85-76
85
76
+9
no box
A13/11
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-20
18-23
25-21
22-11
19-22
23-26
10-22
16-14
17-14
13-15
14-6
18-22
18-26
27-17
26-23
13-11
28-22
17-22
26-18
21-23
23-11
25-21
24-25
23-19
19-15
11-23
20-21
23-19
20-17
23-18
24-23
20-16
19-17
29-24
16-15
15-19
22-20
13-19
15-18
35-19
156.9Avg total
81.2Scored
75.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)82.174.8156.9+7.488%
Season at home (2)78.566.5145.0+12.0100%
Season away (6)83.377.5160.8+5.883%
Last 10 (10)81.275.7156.9+5.580%
Last 5 (5)83.875.8159.6+8.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)71.581.0152.5-9.550%
vs Similar ◀ (19)82.580.7163.2+1.847%
vs Weaker (9)82.076.6158.6+5.478%
This opponent (Independiente de Oliva) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: +4.6+4.6Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +3.3+3.3
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: +4.6+4.6Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +3.3+3.3
Independiente de OlivaPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Independiente de OlivaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
La Union
#10
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A09/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A10/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H14/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H16/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#1
L
40-44
40
44
-4
A19/05
Liga A
Ferro
#16
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H09/10
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
60-40
60
40
+20
H20/10
Liga A
Gimnasia
#3
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H06/11
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#17
W
53-38
53
38
+15
H15/11
Liga A
85.7Avg total
45.2Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.643.087.7+1.647%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.642.288.8+4.460%-
Last 30 away (15)42.743.986.5-1.233%-
Last 10 (10)45.240.585.7+4.770%-
Last 5 (5)49.440.690.0+8.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)44.037.081.0+7.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)43.644.487.9-0.837%-
vs Weaker (10)46.741.187.8+5.660%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ferro
#6
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H01/05
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#3
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H30/09
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A14/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#17
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A17/10
Liga A
San Martin
#18
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H28/10
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A31/10
Liga A
Olimpico
#8
W
43-35
43
35
+8
A03/11
Liga A
Platense
#11
W
48-41
48
41
+7
A11/11
Liga A
Ferro
#16
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A13/11
Liga A
79.8Avg total
40.6Scored
39.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.541.481.9-0.847%-
Last 30 at home (12)38.238.676.8-0.442%-
Last 30 away (18)42.143.285.3-1.150%-
Last 10 (10)40.639.279.8+1.460%-
Last 5 (5)40.837.077.8+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)43.043.086.0+0.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)40.342.182.4-1.737%-
vs Weaker (9)40.439.680.0+0.967%-
This opponent (Independiente de Oliva) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Independiente de Olivatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Independiente de Oliva: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.920.0
52.8%
54.4%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.38.0
29.3%
32.6%24.0
🏀 Free throws22.316.0
71.7%
72.7%16.0
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 82.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.419.9
56.2%
54.4%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.08.4
32.3%
32.6%25.2
🏀 Free throws25.617.5
68.4%
72.7%17.5
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Independiente de Oliva
WLWLLWWLLW
Penarol
WWWLWWWWLW
#7
League position
#2
-3.2
Net rating
+4.1
107.5
Offensive rating
113.4
110.8
Defensive rating
109.3
49.1%
Effective FG%
52.9%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
51.2%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.42
29.3%
3-point %
32.3%
43.9%
Assist %
48.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence107.5 · 113.4Defence110.8 · 109.3Shooting49.1% · 52.9%3-point %29.3% · 32.3%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.34 · 0.42Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Independiente de Oliva   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Independiente de Oliva wins
4
Penarol wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HSan Lorenzo122-89
06/11/26HGimnasia76-77 OT
20/10/26HLanus108-93
09/10/26HFerro92-97
19/05/26AGimnasia71-81
16/05/26HGimnasia74-66
14/05/26HGimnasia78-76
10/05/26AGimnasia72-77
09/05/26AGimnasia66-78
03/05/26HLa Union97-92
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AFerro85-76
11/11/26APlatense79-75
03/11/26AOlimpico87-74
31/10/26AQuimsa73-78
28/10/26HSan Martin95-76
17/10/26ASan Lorenzo92-85
14/10/26ALanus84-77
30/09/26HGimnasia62-57
03/05/26HFerro68-84
01/05/26HFerro87-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Independiente de Oliva
Liga A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLW50%
HomeLWLW50%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %50%50%-
Points / game99.599.5-
Allowed / game89.089.0-
Point differential+10.5+10.5-
Avg total188.5188.5-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %25%25%-
Penarol
Liga A 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW88%
HomeWW100%
AwayWLWWW83%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games826
Win %88%100%83%
Points / game82.178.583.3
Allowed / game74.866.577.5
Point differential+7.4+12.0+5.8
Avg total156.9145.0160.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Quimsa87188%85.275.8+9.5
2 Penarol87188%82.174.8+7.4
3 Gimnasia129375%77.274.0+3.2
4 Instituto de Cordoba86275%77.976.5+1.4
5 Atenas75271%84.479.0+5.4
6 Boca Juniors85362%89.583.2+6.2
7 Independiente de Oliva42250%99.589.0+10.5
8 Olimpico84450%86.885.4+1.4
9 Argentino84450%77.979.5-1.6
10 Obera TC73443%80.083.1-3.1
11 Platense83538%76.978.6-1.8
12 Lanus114736%78.579.3-0.7
13 Racing de Chivilcoy93633%79.482.8-3.3
14 La Union62433%78.283.2-5.0
15 Regatas72529%73.375.7-2.4
16 Ferro82625%81.585.6-4.1
17 San Lorenzo82625%70.183.2-13.1
18 San Martin92722%81.687.4-5.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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