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Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 20 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 110-96
29-20 20-25 23-29 38-22
Position#17
Record8-6
FormWWLLW
Points / game124.6
Allowed / game121.5
vs
Position#20
Record9-7
FormLWWWL
Points / game115.5
Allowed / game114.4
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Golden State Warriors
17 Jan 2027
MIA v GSW
upcoming
19 Nov 2025
MIA110
GSW96
25 Mar 2025
MIA112
GSW86
26 Mar 2024
MIA92
GSW113
01 Nov 2022
MIA116
GSW109
05 Jul 2022
MIA94
GSW70
23 Mar 2022
MIA104
GSW118
01 Apr 2021
MIA116
GSW109
29 Nov 2019
MIA122
GSW105
27 Feb 2019
MIA126
GSW125
03 Dec 2017
MIA95
GSW123
23 Jan 2017
MIA105
GSW102
24 Feb 2016
MIA112
GSW118
25 Nov 2014
MIA97
GSW114
02 Jan 2014
MIA114
GSW123
12 Dec 2012
MIA95
GSW97
01 Jan 2011
MIA114
GSW107
02 Mar 2010
MIA110
GSW106
23 Dec 2008
MIA96
GSW88
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Golden State Warriors winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
101-107
101
107
-6
93avg 104
A31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
120-130
120
130
-10
115avg 104
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
120-119
120
119
+1
119avg 104
A04/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
112-122
112
122
-10
103avg 104
A06/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
126-108
126
108
+18
116avg 104
H08/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
136-131
136
131
+5
135avg 104
H09/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
140-138 OT
140
138
+2
138avg 104
H11/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
116-130
116
130
-14
110avg 104
H13/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
132-140
132
140
-8
124avg 104
A15/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
115-113
115
113
+2
102avg 104
H18/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-33
27-26
14-28
29-20
36-43
27-34
35-25
22-28
32-30
34-41
37-24
17-24
33-36
27-32
26-33
26-21
53-33
19-36
22-19
32-20
27-30
45-35
28-32
36-34
25-30
37-23
39-39
27-36
38-29
31-37
28-27
19-37
35-32
33-46
36-32
28-30
25-20
30-31
28-31
32-31
245.6Avg total
121.8Scored
123.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)124.6121.5246.1+3.157%
Season at home (7)127.4120.6248.0+6.986%
Season away (7)121.7122.4244.1-0.729%
Last 10 (10)121.8123.8245.6-2.050%
Last 5 (5)127.8130.4258.2-2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)107.7118.4226.1-10.730%
vs Similar ◀ (14)119.7119.1238.8+0.650%
vs Weaker (6)118.298.3216.5+19.883%
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Golden State WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWarriors
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
109-114
109
114
-5
100avg 104
A01/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
118-107
118
107
+11
118avg 104
H05/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
116-121
116
121
-5
110avg 104
A06/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
104-129
104
129
-25
95avg 104
A08/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
114-83
114
83
+31
104avg 104
H10/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
102-126
102
126
-24
93avg 104
A12/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
125-120
125
120
+5
119avg 104
A13/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
109-108
109
108
+1
92avg 104
A15/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
124-106
124
106
+18
122avg 104
A17/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
113-121
113
121
-8
108avg 104
A19/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-28
26-25
30-29
21-32
33-19
35-30
24-34
26-24
32-25
30-32
23-35
31-29
21-32
28-34
28-33
27-30
23-21
25-20
27-24
39-18
25-34
19-29
28-44
30-19
14-28
35-28
43-28
33-36
18-20
29-25
30-34
32-29
44-28
17-21
24-22
39-35
32-36
28-31
25-26
28-28
226.9Avg total
113.4Scored
113.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)115.5114.4229.9+1.156%
Season at home (5)119.6103.6223.2+16.0100%
Season away (11)113.6119.4233.0-5.736%
Last 10 (10)113.4113.5226.9-0.150%
Last 5 (5)114.6116.2230.8-1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)106.4113.0219.4-6.657%
vs Similar ◀ (18)106.7107.7214.4-1.044%
vs Weaker (5)116.0111.2227.2+4.840%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -3.1-3.1Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -2.7-2.7Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +2.6+2.6
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -3.1-3.1Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -2.7-2.7Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +2.6+2.6
Miami HeatGolden State Warriors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
58-59
58
59
-1
A31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
63-77
63
77
-14
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
66-71
66
71
-5
A04/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
60-68
60
68
-8
A06/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
72-69
72
69
+3
H08/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
72-65
72
65
+7
H09/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
62-53
62
53
+9
H11/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
69-66
69
66
+3
H13/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
68-78
68
78
-10
A15/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H18/11
NBA
130.2Avg total
64.5Scored
65.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.058.3117.3+0.753%-
Last 30 at home (15)55.757.1112.9-1.467%-
Last 30 away (15)62.359.5121.7+2.840%-
Last 10 (10)64.565.7130.2-1.250%-
Last 5 (5)65.262.6127.8+2.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)52.760.0112.7-7.340%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)63.261.7124.9+1.550%-
vs Weaker (6)59.747.5107.2+12.283%-
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Golden State WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
58-53
58
53
+5
A01/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
68-49
68
49
+19
H05/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
62-57
62
57
+5
A06/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
49-66
49
66
-17
A08/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
48-41
48
41
+7
H10/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
44-63
44
63
-19
A12/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
49-56
49
56
-7
A13/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A15/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
61-49
61
49
+12
A17/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
60-67
60
67
-7
A19/11
NBA
109.2Avg total
54.6Scored
54.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.054.2105.2-3.243%-
Last 30 at home (13)50.451.0101.4-0.646%-
Last 30 away (17)51.556.6108.1-5.241%-
Last 10 (10)54.654.6109.2+0.060%-
Last 5 (5)52.256.0108.2-3.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)46.455.9102.3-9.414%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)50.853.5104.3-2.744%-
vs Weaker (5)58.254.4112.6+3.880%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 121.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.431.3
54.5%
54.8%62.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.213.2
37.5%
35.8%39.6
🏀 Free throws24.719.6
79.4%
78.1%19.6
They take 92.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Golden State Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Golden State Warriors: 113.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers48.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.322.7
53.7%
54.8%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.316.0
36.1%
35.8%48.0
🏀 Free throws24.520.0
81.6%
78.1%20.0
They take 86.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 44.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 51% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLLWWWLWLL
Golden State Warriors
LWWWLWLLWL
#17
League position
#20
-1.8
Net rating
-0.1
112.1
Offensive rating
110.6
113.9
Defensive rating
110.7
55.2%
Effective FG%
53.9%
51.8%
Opp. effective FG%
53.7%
12.8%
Turnover %
15.5%
19.5%
Off. rebound %
23.8%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.28
37.5%
3-point %
36.1%
68.5%
Assist %
69.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence112.1 · 110.6Defence113.9 · 110.7Shooting55.2% · 53.9%3-point %37.5% · 36.1%Ball care12.8% · 15.5%Off. rebounds19.5% · 23.8%Free throws0.27 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Golden State Warriors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/11/25HNew York Knicks115-113
15/11/25ANew York Knicks132-140
13/11/25HCleveland Cavaliers116-130
11/11/25HCleveland Cavaliers140-138 OT
09/11/25HPortland Trail Blazers136-131
08/11/25HCharlotte Hornets126-108
06/11/25ADenver Nuggets112-122
04/11/25ALos Angeles Clippers120-119
03/11/25ALos Angeles Lakers120-130
31/10/25ASan Antonio Spurs101-107
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/11/25AOrlando Magic113-121
17/11/25ANew Orleans Pelicans124-106
15/11/25ASan Antonio Spurs109-108
13/11/25ASan Antonio Spurs125-120
12/11/25AOklahoma City Thunder102-126
10/11/25HIndiana Pacers114-83
08/11/25ADenver Nuggets104-129
06/11/25ASacramento Kings116-121
05/11/25HPhoenix Suns118-107
01/11/25AIndiana Pacers109-114

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW57%
HomeWWWLW86%
AwayLLWLL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %57%86%29%
Points / game124.6127.4121.7
Allowed / game121.5120.6122.4
Point differential+3.1+6.9-0.7
Avg total246.1248.0244.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%29%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)100% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %7%14%0%
Golden State Warriors
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL56%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWWL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games16511
Win %56%100%36%
Points / game115.5119.6113.6
Allowed / game114.4103.6119.4
Point differential+1.1+16.0-5.7
Avg total229.9223.2233.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%80%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)-50% (4)
Overtime %6%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder1514193%121.9106.4+15.5
2 Detroit Pistons1513287%118.9112.1+6.7
3 Denver Nuggets1310377%124.6112.7+11.9
4 Houston Rockets1310377%123.9112.5+11.4
5 Los Angeles Lakers1511473%117.9115.2+2.7
6 San Antonio Spurs1410471%118.2111.3+6.9
7 Toronto Raptors1510567%119.9114.9+4.9
8 Minnesota Timberwolves149564%120.6114.4+6.2
9 Cleveland Cavaliers1610662%119.9116.1+3.8
10 New York Knicks138562%121.4115.2+6.2
11 Phoenix Suns159660%119.3114.1+5.3
12 Atlanta Hawks159660%117.2114.4+2.8
13 Miami Heat148657%124.6121.5+3.1
14 Philadelphia 76ers148657%118.1116.3+1.8
15 Golden State Warriors169756%115.5114.4+1.1
16 Chicago Bulls137654%121.7121.9-0.2
17 Boston Celtics158753%113.7108.5+5.2
18 Orlando Magic158753%115.9113.9+1.9
19 Milwaukee Bucks158753%117.6118.7-1.1
20 Portland Trail Blazers146843%120.7122.5-1.8
21 Utah Jazz145936%119.4124.9-5.4
22 Los Angeles Clippers1441029%111.7116.3-4.6
23 Charlotte Hornets1541127%116.6120.2-3.6
24 Dallas Mavericks1541127%110.3117.2-6.9
25 Memphis Grizzlies1541127%111.1119.2-8.1
26 Sacramento Kings1431121%112.9124.4-11.4
27 Brooklyn Nets1421214%109.6121.3-11.6
28 New Orleans Pelicans1421214%108.3121.9-13.6
29 Indiana Pacers1521313%110.1123.1-12.9
30 Washington Wizards131128%112.9129.6-16.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat29202338110
Golden State Warriors2025292296
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