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Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 24 Jan 2017
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 105-102
28-30 18-18 31-25 28-29
Position#13
Record14-30
FormLLWWW
Points / game98.8
Allowed / game102.5
vs
Position#1
Record38-6
FormWWWWW
Points / game118.0
Allowed / game104.9
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2016-17
Meetings · Miami Heat v Golden State Warriors
17 Jan 2027
MIA v GSW
upcoming
19 Nov 2025
MIA110
GSW96
25 Mar 2025
MIA112
GSW86
26 Mar 2024
MIA92
GSW113
01 Nov 2022
MIA116
GSW109
05 Jul 2022
MIA94
GSW70
23 Mar 2022
MIA104
GSW118
01 Apr 2021
MIA116
GSW109
29 Nov 2019
MIA122
GSW105
27 Feb 2019
MIA126
GSW125
03 Dec 2017
MIA95
GSW123
23 Jan 2017
MIA105
GSW102
24 Feb 2016
MIA112
GSW118
25 Nov 2014
MIA97
GSW114
02 Jan 2014
MIA114
GSW123
12 Dec 2012
MIA95
GSW97
01 Jan 2011
MIA114
GSW107
02 Mar 2010
MIA110
GSW106
23 Dec 2008
MIA96
GSW88
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Golden State Warriors winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
98-107
98
107
-9
91avg 92
H01/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
90-99
90
99
-9
73avg 92
A04/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
107-102
107
102
+5
105avg 92
A05/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#28
L
100-127
100
127
-27
79avg 92
A07/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
L
86-98
86
98
-12
73avg 92
A08/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
95-107
95
107
-12
86avg 92
A11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
L
108-116
108
116
-8
101avg 92
A14/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
109-103
109
103
+6
100avg 92
H18/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
99-95
99
95
+4
90avg 92
H20/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
W
109-97
109
97
+12
100avg 92
H22/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
37-33
29-25
15-27
17-22
29-28
23-28
14-27
24-16
30-25
34-34
23-22
20-21
23-32
33-26
23-32
21-37
19-20
20-32
27-28
20-18
29-27
25-26
14-26
27-28
30-42
18-23
26-26
34-25
27-32
26-21
26-26
30-24
29-22
15-31
26-20
29-22
25-22
28-21
29-28
27-26
205.2Avg total
100.1Scored
105.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (44)98.8102.5201.3-3.732%
Season at home (21)101.8102.3204.1-0.538%
Season away (23)96.0102.6198.7-6.626%
Last 10 (10)100.1105.1205.2-5.040%
Last 5 (5)104.0103.6207.6+0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)102.0105.0207.0-3.050%
vs Similar (22)98.5102.1200.6-3.732%
vs Weaker (6)107.5114.2221.7-6.733%
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Golden State WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWarriors
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#17
W
127-119
127
119
+8
123avg 111
H03/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
125-117
125
117
+8
121avg 111
H05/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
L
119-128 OT
119
128
-9
111avg 111
H07/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
117-106
117
106
+11
118avg 111
A09/01
NBA
Miami Heat
#13
W
107-95
107
95
+12
104avg 111
H11/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
127-107
127
107
+20
128avg 111
H13/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#4
W
126-91
126
91
+35
134avg 111
H17/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
W
121-100
121
100
+21
124avg 111
H19/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
125-108
125
108
+17
121avg 111
A21/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
118-98
118
98
+20
116avg 111
A22/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-33
33-31
26-21
33-34
40-34
29-37
30-21
26-25
34-27
33-28
31-24
13-32
24-33
27-25
39-22
27-26
27-29
26-25
26-14
28-27
37-30
23-28
41-19
26-30
37-22
41-27
17-22
31-20
30-31
26-25
37-22
28-22
32-29
30-28
37-22
26-29
28-22
22-28
42-24
26-24
228.1Avg total
121.2Scored
106.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (44)118.0104.9222.8+13.186%
Season at home (23)121.1105.3226.4+15.887%
Season away (21)114.5104.4218.9+10.086%
Last 10 (10)121.2106.9228.1+14.390%
Last 5 (5)123.4100.8224.2+22.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)118.4104.0222.4+14.487%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-14-7+0+7+14Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: +11.5+11.5Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -0.5-0.5
-14-7+0+7+14Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: +11.5+11.5Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -0.5-0.5
Miami HeatGolden State Warriors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H01/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
52-56
52
56
-4
A04/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
64-59
64
59
+5
A05/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#28
L
56-58
56
58
-2
A07/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
L
39-52
39
52
-13
A08/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
54-53
54
53
+1
A11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
L
48-65
48
65
-17
A14/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H18/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
L
44-53
44
53
-9
H20/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
W
53-43
53
43
+10
H22/01
NBA
107.9Avg total
52.9Scored
55.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.653.2103.8-2.643%-
Last 30 at home (14)51.054.3105.3-3.343%-
Last 30 away (16)50.252.2102.4-1.944%-
Last 10 (10)52.955.0107.9-2.140%-
Last 5 (5)50.453.4103.8-3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)53.553.0106.5+0.550%-
vs Similar (22)48.552.1100.6-3.541%-
vs Weaker (6)57.257.2114.3+0.050%-
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Golden State WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#17
W
68-64
68
64
+4
H03/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
69-71
69
71
-2
H05/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
67-55
67
55
+12
H07/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
L
51-58
51
58
-7
A09/01
NBA
Miami Heat
#13
L
53-54
53
54
-1
H11/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
60-58
60
58
+2
H13/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#4
W
78-49
78
49
+29
H17/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
D
56-56
56
56
+0
H19/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
62-57
62
57
+5
A21/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A22/01
NBA
118.6Avg total
61.4Scored
57.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.653.9114.5+6.763%-
Last 30 at home (18)64.353.0117.3+11.372%-
Last 30 away (12)55.055.2110.2-0.250%-
Last 10 (10)61.457.2118.6+4.250%-
Last 5 (5)61.254.0115.2+7.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)60.653.9114.5+6.763%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 100.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.227.6
50.0%
50.2%55.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.79.6
34.7%
35.7%28.8
🏀 Free throws22.116.1
72.9%
77.0%16.1
They take 82.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Golden State Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Golden State Warriors: 121.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.232.3
56.5%
50.2%64.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.112.7
40.8%
35.7%38.1
🏀 Free throws24.018.5
77.1%
77.0%18.5
They take 88.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 24 Jan 2017 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWWLLLLWLL
Golden State Warriors
WWWWWWWLWW
#13
League position
#1
-5.1
Net rating
+13.6
103.1
Offensive rating
115.1
108.2
Defensive rating
101.5
50.7%
Effective FG%
58.2%
51.7%
Opp. effective FG%
49.5%
12.7%
Turnover %
14.8%
18.3%
Off. rebound %
23.4%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.27
34.7%
3-point %
40.8%
56.7%
Assist %
70.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence103.1 · 115.1Defence108.2 · 101.5Shooting50.7% · 58.2%3-point %34.7% · 40.8%Ball care12.7% · 14.8%Off. rebounds18.3% · 23.4%Free throws0.27 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)40% · 90%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Golden State Warriors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/01/17HMilwaukee Bucks109-97
20/01/17HDallas Mavericks99-95
18/01/17HHouston Rockets109-103
14/01/17AMilwaukee Bucks108-116
11/01/17AGolden State Warriors95-107
08/01/17ALos Angeles Clippers86-98
07/01/17ALos Angeles Lakers100-127
05/01/17ASacramento Kings107-102
04/01/17APhoenix Suns90-99
01/01/17HDetroit Pistons98-107
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/01/17AOrlando Magic118-98
21/01/17AHouston Rockets125-108
19/01/17HOklahoma City Thunder121-100
17/01/17HCleveland Cavaliers126-91
13/01/17HDetroit Pistons127-107
11/01/17HMiami Heat107-95
09/01/17ASacramento Kings117-106
07/01/17HMemphis Grizzlies119-128 OT
05/01/17HPortland Trail Blazers125-117
03/01/17HDenver Nuggets127-119

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW32%
HomeLLWWW38%
AwayWLLLL26%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games442123
Win %32%38%26%
Points / game98.8101.896.0
Allowed / game102.5102.3102.6
Point differential-3.7-0.5-6.6
Avg total201.3204.1198.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%19%4%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (12)20% (5)43% (7)
Overtime %5%10%0%
Golden State Warriors
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeLWWWW87%
AwayWLWWW86%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games442321
Win %86%87%86%
Points / game118.0121.1114.5
Allowed / game104.9105.3104.4
Point differential+13.1+15.8+10.0
Avg total222.8226.4218.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+59%70%48%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)50% (2)67% (3)
Overtime %5%9%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors4438686%118.0104.9+13.1
2 San Antonio Spurs4334979%107.698.9+8.7
3 Houston Rockets47341372%114.5107.4+7.1
4 Cleveland Cavaliers42301271%109.3104.4+4.9
5 Los Angeles Clippers45291664%107.8102.6+5.3
6 Utah Jazz45291664%99.795.3+4.4
7 Toronto Raptors44281664%110.0104.8+5.2
8 Boston Celtics43261760%107.3105.3+2.0
9 Atlanta Hawks44261859%102.9102.5+0.4
10 Oklahoma City Thunder44251957%106.3105.6+0.8
11 Memphis Grizzlies46262057%99.799.4+0.2
12 Washington Wizards44242055%106.2105.7+0.5
13 Indiana Pacers43222151%105.4106.7-1.3
14 Charlotte Hornets45232251%105.2103.2+2.1
15 Chicago Bulls45222349%101.2101.4-0.1
16 Detroit Pistons45212447%100.5101.2-0.7
17 Milwaukee Bucks43202347%104.4104.1+0.3
18 New York Knicks45192642%105.5108.3-2.8
19 Denver Nuggets43182542%109.8111.3-1.5
20 Portland Trail Blazers46192741%107.5110.5-3.0
21 Orlando Magic46182839%99.9105.0-5.1
22 New Orleans Pelicans44172739%102.8105.7-2.9
23 Sacramento Kings43162737%102.3105.5-3.1
24 Minnesota Timberwolves44162836%103.3104.4-1.0
25 Philadelphia 76ers42152736%99.0104.7-5.7
26 Dallas Mavericks44152934%96.6100.0-3.5
27 Phoenix Suns44152934%106.1111.5-5.4
28 Los Angeles Lakers48163233%104.1110.4-6.4
29 Miami Heat44143032%98.8102.5-3.7
30 Brooklyn Nets4393421%106.2114.9-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat28183128105
Golden State Warriors30182529102
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