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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 06 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 122-112
36-33 32-27 33-26 21-26
Position#6
Record4-2
FormWWWLW
Points / game125.0
Allowed / game113.8
vs
Position#17
Record4-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game123.9
Allowed / game117.0
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat
14 Mar 2027
DEN v MIA
upcoming
05 Nov 2025
DEN122
MIA112
08 Nov 2024
DEN135
MIA122
29 Feb 2024
DEN103
MIA97
12 Jun 2023
DEN94
MIA89
04 Jun 2023
DEN108
MIA111
01 Jun 2023
DEN104
MIA93
30 Dec 2022
DEN124
MIA119
08 Nov 2021
DEN113
MIA96
14 Apr 2021
DEN123
MIA106
01 Aug 2020
DEN105
MIA125
05 Nov 2019
DEN109
MIA89
11 Feb 2019
DEN103
MIA87
03 Nov 2017
DEN95
MIA94
30 Nov 2016
DEN98
MIA106
15 Jan 2016
DEN95
MIA98
10 Dec 2014
DEN102
MIA82
30 Dec 2013
DEN94
MIA97
15 Nov 2012
DEN93
MIA98
13 Jan 2012
DEN117
MIA104
13 Jan 2011
DEN130
MIA102
03 Dec 2009
DEN114
MIA96
07 Jan 2009
DEN108
MIA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
87-92
87
92
-5
73avg 114
H11/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
105-112
105
112
-7
91avg 114
A14/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
119-107
119
107
+12
118avg 114
H16/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
93-125
93
125
-32
83avg 114
A18/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
131-137 OT
131
137
-6
128avg 114
A24/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
133-111
133
111
+22
133avg 114
H26/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
127-114
127
114
+13
122avg 114
A28/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
122-88
122
88
+34
133avg 114
H30/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
107-109
107
109
-2
101avg 114
A01/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
130-124
130
124
+6
123avg 114
H04/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8-17
28-25
33-21
18-29
28-27
28-27
30-24
19-34
31-28
27-33
32-21
29-25
26-21
20-39
26-37
21-28
31-27
39-34
24-33
26-26
34-28
37-26
29-29
33-28
34-30
23-35
45-29
25-20
34-25
19-22
39-11
30-30
26-18
31-35
24-18
26-38
39-30
33-33
32-30
26-31
227.3Avg total
115.4Scored
111.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)125.0113.8238.8+11.267%
Season at home (3)128.3107.7236.0+20.7100%
Season away (3)121.7120.0241.7+1.733%
Last 10 (10)115.4111.9227.3+3.550%
Last 5 (5)123.8109.2233.0+14.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)106.3115.4221.7-9.143%
vs Similar ◀ (16)116.9113.7230.6+3.262%
vs Weaker (7)120.6113.3233.9+7.343%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#4
W
82-69
82
69
+13
92avg 103
H05/07
California Classic
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
83-103
83
103
-20
70avg 103
H06/07
California Classic
Golden State Warriors
#3
W
93-79
93
79
+14
92avg 103
A08/07
California Classic
Orlando Magic
#13
L
121-125
121
125
-4
114avg 103
A22/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
146-114
146
114
+32
147avg 103
A25/10
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
115-107
115
107
+8
113avg 103
H26/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
144-117
144
117
+27
139avg 103
H28/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
101-107
101
107
-6
93avg 103
A31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
120-130
120
130
-10
115avg 103
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
120-119
120
119
+1
119avg 103
A04/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-13
20-16
24-22
26-18
20-26
18-25
24-25
21-27
23-22
25-14
22-21
23-22
39-38
26-31
26-21
30-35
44-25
42-22
28-29
32-38
24-27
33-27
31-27
27-26
37-34
39-26
29-28
39-29
31-33
27-26
14-28
29-20
36-43
27-34
35-25
22-28
32-30
34-41
37-24
17-24
219.5Avg total
112.5Scored
107.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)123.9117.0240.9+6.957%
Season at home (2)129.5112.0241.5+17.5100%
Season away (5)121.6119.0240.6+2.640%
Last 10 (10)112.5107.0219.5+5.560%
Last 5 (5)120.0116.0236.0+4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)103.1114.8217.9-11.722%
vs Similar ◀ (12)116.1112.7228.8+3.450%
vs Weaker (9)118.898.2217.0+20.689%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +4.0+4.0Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: -2.4-2.4Q2: +2.9+2.9Q3Q3: +6.1+6.1Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -3.6-3.6Q4: -0.1-0.1
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +4.0+4.0Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: -2.4-2.4Q2: +2.9+2.9Q3Q3: +6.1+6.1Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -3.6-3.6Q4: -0.1-0.1
Denver NuggetsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H11/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
56-54
56
54
+2
A14/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
58-61
58
61
-3
H16/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
46-60
46
60
-14
A18/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
70-61
70
61
+9
A24/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
71-54
71
54
+17
H26/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
57-65
57
65
-8
A28/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H30/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
57-53
57
53
+4
A01/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
72-63
72
63
+9
H04/11
NBA
113.6Avg total
57.6Scored
56.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.357.9115.2-0.650%-
Last 30 at home (17)57.855.9113.7+1.853%-
Last 30 away (13)56.760.5117.2-3.846%-
Last 10 (10)57.656.0113.6+1.660%-
Last 5 (5)62.056.4118.4+5.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)50.460.0110.4-9.614%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)58.657.2115.9+1.456%-
vs Weaker (7)61.157.4118.6+3.771%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#4
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H05/07
California Classic
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
38-51
38
51
-13
H06/07
California Classic
Golden State Warriors
#3
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A08/07
California Classic
Orlando Magic
#13
L
65-69
65
69
-4
A22/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
86-47
86
47
+39
A25/10
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
57-54
57
54
+3
H26/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
76-60
76
60
+16
H28/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
58-59
58
59
-1
A31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
63-77
63
77
-14
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
66-71
66
71
-5
A04/11
NBA
114.2Avg total
58.9Scored
55.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.555.0112.5+2.560%-
Last 30 at home (15)53.353.6106.9-0.367%-
Last 30 away (15)61.756.4118.1+5.353%-
Last 10 (10)58.955.3114.2+3.650%-
Last 5 (5)64.064.2128.2-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)51.458.0109.4-6.644%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)60.658.0118.6+2.650%-
vs Weaker (9)59.448.0107.4+11.489%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 115.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.029.8
58.4%
54.8%59.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.011.6
31.4%
35.8%34.8
🏀 Free throws25.321.0
83.0%
78.1%21.0
They take 88.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 112.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.928.3
56.7%
54.8%56.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.812.1
36.9%
35.8%36.3
🏀 Free throws24.619.4
78.9%
78.1%19.4
They take 82.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WLWWWLLWLL
Miami Heat
WLLWWWLWLW
#6
League position
#17
+3.4
Net rating
+5.6
113.0
Offensive rating
110.4
109.5
Defensive rating
104.8
53.6%
Effective FG%
56.2%
52.0%
Opp. effective FG%
51.3%
13.9%
Turnover %
16.2%
26.7%
Off. rebound %
21.5%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.30
31.4%
3-point %
36.9%
63.5%
Assist %
63.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence113.0 · 110.4Defence109.5 · 104.8Shooting53.6% · 56.2%3-point %31.4% · 36.9%Ball care13.9% · 16.2%Off. rebounds26.7% · 21.5%Free throws0.29 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Denver Nuggets wins
1
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/25HSacramento Kings130-124
01/11/25APortland Trail Blazers107-109
30/10/25HNew Orleans Pelicans122-88
28/10/25AMinnesota Timberwolves127-114
26/10/25HPhoenix Suns133-111
24/10/25AGolden State Warriors131-137 OT
18/05/25AOklahoma City Thunder93-125
16/05/25HOklahoma City Thunder119-107
14/05/25AOklahoma City Thunder105-112
11/05/25HOklahoma City Thunder87-92
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/25ALos Angeles Clippers120-119
03/11/25ALos Angeles Lakers120-130
31/10/25ASan Antonio Spurs101-107
28/10/25HCharlotte Hornets144-117
26/10/25HNew York Knicks115-107
25/10/25AMemphis Grizzlies146-114
22/10/25AOrlando Magic121-125
08/07/25AGolden State Warriors93-79
06/07/25HLos Angeles Lakers83-103
05/07/25HSan Antonio Spurs82-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW67%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%100%33%
Points / game125.0128.3121.7
Allowed / game113.8107.7120.0
Point differential+11.2+20.7+1.7
Avg total238.8236.0241.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %17%0%33%
Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW57%
HomeWW100%
AwayLWLLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games725
Win %57%100%40%
Points / game123.9129.5121.6
Allowed / game117.0112.0119.0
Point differential+6.9+17.5+2.6
Avg total240.9241.5240.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%50%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder880100%122.6109.4+13.2
2 Chicago Bulls76186%120.4115.6+4.9
3 San Antonio Spurs65183%118.2108.2+10.0
4 Detroit Pistons86275%115.6111.2+4.4
5 Los Angeles Lakers86275%119.8116.6+3.1
6 Houston Rockets75271%124.7111.7+13.0
7 Denver Nuggets64267%125.0113.8+11.2
8 New York Knicks85362%118.9113.6+5.2
9 Philadelphia 76ers85362%123.2119.2+4.0
10 Golden State Warriors85362%117.6114.6+3.0
11 Cleveland Cavaliers85362%116.4114.8+1.6
12 Milwaukee Bucks85362%119.9119.1+0.8
13 Miami Heat74357%123.9117.0+6.9
14 Portland Trail Blazers74357%120.3117.6+2.7
15 Toronto Raptors84450%120.5118.0+2.5
16 Atlanta Hawks84450%116.6117.4-0.8
17 Minnesota Timberwolves84450%116.5118.2-1.8
18 Boston Celtics94544%113.3109.3+4.0
19 Los Angeles Clippers73443%111.7115.1-3.4
20 Charlotte Hornets83538%120.4120.4+0.0
21 Orlando Magic83538%116.2117.6-1.4
22 Phoenix Suns83538%116.9120.2-3.4
23 Utah Jazz83538%114.0118.0-4.0
24 Memphis Grizzlies93633%114.8120.8-6.0
25 Sacramento Kings72529%116.3121.0-4.7
26 Dallas Mavericks82625%106.2113.8-7.5
27 New Orleans Pelicans82625%107.9120.8-12.9
28 Indiana Pacers81712%111.6119.5-7.9
29 Brooklyn Nets81712%111.9124.5-12.6
30 Washington Wizards81712%111.9128.1-16.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets36323321122
Miami Heat33272626112
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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