PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 15 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 22:00
Scheduled
Position#19
Record5-6
FormLLLWW
Points / game122.7
Allowed / game121.9
vs
Position#14
Record5-5
FormLLWWW
Points / game115.5
Allowed / game109.4
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Miami Heat v San Antonio Spurs
15 Feb 2027
MIA v SAS
upcoming
23 Mar 2026
MIA111
SAS136
08 Oct 2025
MIA107
SAS112
05 Jul 2025
MIA82
SAS69
19 Jan 2025
MIA128
SAS107
15 Oct 2024
MIA120
SAS117
07 Feb 2024
MIA116
SAS104
10 Dec 2022
MIA111
SAS115
26 Feb 2022
MIA133
SAS129
28 Apr 2021
MIA116
SAS111
15 Jan 2020
MIA106
SAS100
08 Oct 2019
MIA107
SAS89
07 Nov 2018
MIA95
SAS88
25 Oct 2017
MIA100
SAS117
08 Jul 2017
MIA75
SAS74
30 Oct 2016
MIA99
SAS106
09 Feb 2016
MIA101
SAS119
12 Oct 2015
MIA97
SAS94
31 Mar 2015
MIA81
SAS95
12 Jun 2014
MIA86
SAS107
10 Jun 2014
MIA92
SAS111
26 Jan 2014
MIA113
SAS101
19 Oct 2013
MIA121
SAS96
20 Jun 2013
MIA95
SAS88
18 Jun 2013
MIA103
SAS100
09 Jun 2013
MIA103
SAS84
06 Jun 2013
MIA88
SAS92
29 Nov 2012
MIA105
SAS100
20 Oct 2012
MIA104
SAS101
17 Jan 2012
MIA120
SAS98
14 Mar 2011
MIA110
SAS80
16 Mar 2010
MIA76
SAS88
11 Oct 2009
MIA93
SAS95
05 Jan 2009
MIA84
SAS91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
San Antonio Spurs win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Miami Heat
4.5out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Below their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 123.4
120.8▼ 2.6
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 121.7
119.6▼ 2.1
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 59%
55%▼ 5%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 29.7
27.0▼ 2.7
🔥 Form · San Antonio Spurs
3.5out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Below their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 117.8
116.6▼ 1.2
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 108.1
110.0▲ 1.9
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 59%
54%▼ 5%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 27.6
26.5▼ 1.1
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
128-118
128
118
+10
H08/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
124-125
124
125
-1
H11/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
144-128
144
128
+16
H14/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
L
115-136
115
136
-21
A16/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
106-131
106
131
-25
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
111-128
111
128
-17
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
110-115
110
115
-5
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
109-113
109
113
-4
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
W
129-117
129
117
+12
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
145-125
145
125
+20
H31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-36
40-28
20-32
35-22
23-24
33-36
28-31
40-34
35-29
34-37
43-37
32-25
36-34
29-36
30-38
20-28
32-34
27-35
22-30
25-32
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
245.7Avg total
122.1Scored
123.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)122.7121.9244.6+0.845%
Season at home (7)123.9124.0247.9-0.143%
Season away (4)120.8118.2239.0+2.550%
Last 10 (10)122.1123.6245.7-1.540%
Last 5 (5)120.8119.6240.4+1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)120.0124.9244.9-4.938%
vs Similar (16)122.3124.2246.6-1.938%
vs Weaker (6)130.3122.8253.2+7.567%
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Antonio SpursUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#6
L
116-123
116
123
-7
H09/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
98-102
98
102
-4
A11/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#21
L
109-119
109
119
-10
A13/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
123-103
123
103
+20
H15/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
W
126-97
126
97
+29
H17/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#18
L
104-116
104
116
-12
H21/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
110-114
110
114
-4
H24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
122-106
122
106
+16
A25/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
W
130-103
130
103
+27
H28/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#21
W
117-111 OT
117
111
+6
A29/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
39-20
30-42
26-31
21-30
25-35
26-23
22-27
25-17
26-33
35-35
17-31
31-20
22-23
38-26
32-26
31-28
42-18
29-19
30-35
25-25
28-34
16-31
36-28
24-23
27-32
32-29
22-24
29-29
32-31
36-29
24-29
30-17
39-29
41-25
27-26
23-23
22-32
29-23
34-30
20-20
224.9Avg total
115.5Scored
109.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)115.5109.4224.9+6.150%
Season at home (6)118.2109.3227.5+8.850%
Season away (4)111.5109.5221.0+2.050%
Last 10 (10)115.5109.4224.9+6.150%
Last 5 (5)116.6110.0226.6+6.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)110.0114.0224.0-4.00%
vs Similar (13)108.8108.3217.2+0.538%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)117.6104.5222.1+13.169%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.6-0.6Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -4.0-4.0Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: +2.7+2.7
Miami HeatSan Antonio Spurs
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
73-64
73
64
+9
H08/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H11/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
69-66
69
66
+3
H14/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
L
65-70
65
70
-5
A16/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
59-69
59
69
-10
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
125.2Avg total
62.2Scored
63.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)62.462.6124.9-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (17)63.162.6125.6+0.553%-
Last 30 away (13)61.562.5124.0-1.138%-
Last 10 (10)62.263.0125.2-0.840%-
Last 5 (5)60.060.2120.2-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)61.963.6125.5-1.838%-
vs Similar (16)59.962.6122.5-2.644%-
vs Weaker (6)69.561.2130.7+8.367%-
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Antonio SpursLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#6
W
69-62
69
62
+7
H09/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
51-58
51
58
-7
A11/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#21
L
61-68
61
68
-7
A13/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
60-49
60
49
+11
H15/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
W
71-37
71
37
+34
H17/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#18
L
44-65
44
65
-21
H21/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
59-61
59
61
-2
H24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
68-60
68
60
+8
A25/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
W
80-54
80
54
+26
H28/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#21
L
51-55
51
55
-4
A29/10
NBA
118.3Avg total
61.4Scored
56.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.453.4110.8+4.053%-
Last 30 at home (16)57.649.4106.9+8.269%-
Last 30 away (14)57.358.0115.3-0.736%-
Last 10 (10)61.456.9118.3+4.550%-
Last 5 (5)60.459.0119.4+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)59.061.0120.0-2.00%-
vs Similar (13)56.053.3109.3+2.762%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)58.553.0111.5+5.550%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 120.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.630.2
56.3%
54.0%60.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.713.6
34.3%
34.9%40.8
🏀 Free throws26.619.3
72.6%
76.2%19.3
They take 93.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
San Antonio Spurstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

San Antonio Spurs: 111.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.3 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.326.3
51.3%
54.0%52.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.913.1
33.7%
34.9%39.3
🏀 Free throws25.119.6
78.1%
76.2%19.6
They take 90.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLLLLLWLW
San Antonio Spurs
WWWLLWWLLL
#19
League position
#14
-1.0
Net rating
+2.7
105.1
Offensive rating
99.4
106.1
Defensive rating
96.7
54.2%
Effective FG%
50.9%
55.2%
Opp. effective FG%
51.4%
12.7%
Turnover %
14.8%
10.7%
Off. rebound %
20.3%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.28
34.3%
3-point %
33.7%
66.9%
Assist %
63.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence105.1 · 99.4Defence106.1 · 96.7Shooting54.2% · 50.9%3-point %34.3% · 33.7%Ball care12.7% · 14.8%Off. rebounds10.7% · 20.3%Free throws0.29 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ San Antonio Spurs
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Miami Heat wins
4
San Antonio Spurs wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
21/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves106-131
16/10/26AOrlando Magic115-136
14/10/26HBrooklyn Nets144-128
11/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves124-125
08/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans128-118
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/26AUtah Jazz117-111 OT
28/10/26HSacramento Kings130-103
25/10/26ADallas Mavericks122-106
24/10/26HHouston Rockets110-114
21/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder104-116
17/10/26HSacramento Kings126-97
15/10/26HPhoenix Suns123-103
13/10/26AUtah Jazz109-119
11/10/26APhoenix Suns98-102
09/10/26HAtlanta Hawks116-123

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW45%
HomeWLLLW43%
AwayWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1174
Win %45%43%50%
Points / game122.7123.9120.8
Allowed / game121.9124.0118.2
Point differential+0.8-0.1+2.5
Avg total244.6247.9239.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%43%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
San Antonio Spurs
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW50%
HomeWWLLW50%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game115.5118.2111.5
Allowed / game109.4109.3109.5
Point differential+6.1+8.8+2.0
Avg total224.9227.5221.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %10%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics98189%123.4110.0+13.4
2 Memphis Grizzlies98189%117.9108.2+9.7
3 Detroit Pistons108280%113.3106.3+7.0
4 Houston Rockets97278%121.3110.9+10.4
5 Portland Trail Blazers75271%120.3114.3+6.0
6 Atlanta Hawks117464%120.7115.7+5.0
7 Denver Nuggets106460%114.8114.7+0.1
8 Philadelphia 76ers106460%110.6111.0-0.4
9 Minnesota Timberwolves127558%118.8112.4+6.4
10 Golden State Warriors127558%115.2110.8+4.4
11 Orlando Magic95456%116.0117.8-1.8
12 Los Angeles Lakers116555%113.2112.6+0.5
13 Toronto Raptors105550%119.6111.5+8.1
14 San Antonio Spurs105550%115.5109.4+6.1
15 Washington Wizards105550%111.6111.3+0.3
16 Cleveland Cavaliers84450%117.2118.2-1.0
17 Dallas Mavericks105550%114.3115.7-1.4
18 Oklahoma City Thunder105550%109.0110.8-1.8
19 Miami Heat115645%122.7121.9+0.8
20 New Orleans Pelicans94544%115.4116.6-1.1
21 Utah Jazz94544%112.8115.6-2.8
22 Charlotte Hornets104640%97.0108.0-11.0
23 Los Angeles Clippers83538%107.4110.5-3.1
24 Chicago Bulls114736%117.4122.7-5.4
25 Brooklyn Nets93633%116.4118.9-2.4
26 Indiana Pacers103730%117.9119.2-1.3
27 Milwaukee Bucks103730%111.4122.0-10.6
28 New York Knicks113827%106.5115.2-8.6
29 Phoenix Suns92722%110.3119.0-8.7
30 Sacramento Kings100100%106.5122.2-15.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.