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Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 30 Oct 2016
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 99-106
19-24 25-28 28-25 27-29
Position#13
Record1-1
FormLWLWL
Points / game99.5
Allowed / game96.5
vs
Position#2
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game109.7
Allowed / game91.0
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2016-17
Meetings · Miami Heat v San Antonio Spurs
15 Feb 2027
MIA v SAS
upcoming
23 Mar 2026
MIA111
SAS136
05 Jul 2025
MIA82
SAS69
19 Jan 2025
MIA128
SAS107
07 Feb 2024
MIA116
SAS104
10 Dec 2022
MIA111
SAS115
26 Feb 2022
MIA133
SAS129
28 Apr 2021
MIA116
SAS111
15 Jan 2020
MIA106
SAS100
07 Nov 2018
MIA95
SAS88
25 Oct 2017
MIA100
SAS117
30 Oct 2016
MIA99
SAS106
09 Feb 2016
MIA101
SAS119
31 Mar 2015
MIA81
SAS95
12 Jun 2014
MIA86
SAS107
10 Jun 2014
MIA92
SAS111
26 Jan 2014
MIA113
SAS101
20 Jun 2013
MIA95
SAS88
18 Jun 2013
MIA103
SAS100
09 Jun 2013
MIA103
SAS84
06 Jun 2013
MIA88
SAS92
29 Nov 2012
MIA105
SAS100
17 Jan 2012
MIA120
SAS98
14 Mar 2011
MIA110
SAS80
16 Mar 2010
MIA76
SAS88
05 Jan 2009
MIA84
SAS91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
San Antonio Spurs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
106-73
106
73
+33
105avg 92
H01/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
W
102-96 OT
102
96
+6
87avg 92
A04/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
92-96 OT
92
96
-4
83avg 92
A06/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
91-95
91
95
-4
76avg 92
H07/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
W
94-87 OT
94
87
+7
81avg 92
H10/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
91-99
91
99
-8
78avg 92
A12/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
W
103-91
103
91
+12
90avg 92
H14/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
89-116
89
116
-27
76avg 92
A15/05
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
108-96
108
96
+12
101avg 92
A26/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
L
91-97
91
97
-6
80avg 92
H29/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-18
25-24
29-11
23-20
18-18
23-25
27-20
22-27
19-29
22-19
24-15
21-23
19-23
21-26
28-19
23-27
25-21
19-14
16-27
23-21
18-28
27-27
17-20
29-24
21-20
32-24
29-28
21-19
24-25
23-28
31-33
11-30
23-27
27-26
30-16
28-27
23-21
34-25
20-27
14-24
191.3Avg total
96.7Scored
94.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)99.596.5196.0+3.050%
Season at home (1)91.097.0188.0-6.00%
Season away (1)108.096.0204.0+12.0100%
Last 10 (10)96.794.6191.3+2.150%
Last 5 (5)96.499.8196.2-3.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)105.0106.5211.5-1.550%
vs Similar (23)98.995.7194.7+3.252%
vs Weaker (5)108.6100.4209.0+8.280%
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Antonio SpursUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSpurs
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
W
116-95
116
95
+21
108avg 98
A24/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
W
124-92
124
92
+32
132avg 98
H01/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
L
97-98
97
98
-1
78avg 98
H03/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
W
100-96
100
96
+4
88avg 98
A07/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
L
97-111
97
111
-14
78avg 98
A09/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
L
91-95
91
95
-4
73avg 98
H11/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
L
99-113
99
113
-14
82avg 98
A13/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
129-100
129
100
+29
123avg 98
A26/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
102-94
102
94
+8
96avg 98
A28/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#21
W
98-79
98
79
+19
92avg 98
H30/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-19
22-26
37-21
32-29
43-20
30-20
32-26
19-26
21-29
32-27
23-21
21-21
27-20
20-22
25-27
28-27
27-17
26-28
28-32
16-34
16-22
32-21
24-26
19-26
19-25
12-30
34-36
34-22
31-20
33-26
33-31
32-23
27-29
26-28
23-14
26-23
28-23
27-22
28-15
15-19
202.6Avg total
105.3Scored
97.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)109.791.0200.7+18.7100%
Season at home (1)98.079.0177.0+19.0100%
Season away (2)115.597.0212.5+18.5100%
Last 10 (10)105.397.3202.6+8.060%
Last 5 (5)103.896.2200.0+7.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)129.0100.0229.0+29.0100%
vs Similar (12)97.498.5195.9-1.142%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)101.990.0191.9+11.988%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +4.0+4.0Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +3.5+3.5Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: -2.7-2.7Q4: -0.8-0.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +4.0+4.0Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +3.5+3.5Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: -2.7-2.7Q4: -0.8-0.8
Miami HeatSan Antonio Spurs
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
54-42
54
42
+12
H01/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A04/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A06/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
40-49
40
49
-9
H07/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H10/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
45-55
45
55
-10
A12/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
W
53-44
53
44
+9
H14/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
47-53
47
53
-6
A15/05
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
L
50-53
50
53
-3
A26/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
W
57-46
57
46
+11
H29/10
NBA
94.0Avg total
47.2Scored
46.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.848.199.9+3.753%-
Last 30 at home (14)54.347.1101.4+7.271%-
Last 30 away (16)49.749.098.7+0.738%-
Last 10 (10)47.246.894.0+0.440%-
Last 5 (5)50.450.2100.6+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)56.050.0106.0+6.050%-
vs Similar (23)50.648.298.8+2.348%-
vs Weaker (5)56.046.8102.8+9.280%-
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Antonio SpursLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A24/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
W
73-40
73
40
+33
H01/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
L
53-56
53
56
-3
H03/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A07/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
W
53-45
53
45
+8
A09/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
W
48-43
48
43
+5
H11/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
L
31-55
31
55
-24
A13/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
64-46
64
46
+18
A26/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
L
53-57
53
57
-4
A28/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#21
W
55-45
55
45
+10
H30/10
NBA
99.8Avg total
52.4Scored
47.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.145.594.6+3.670%-
Last 30 at home (16)51.144.495.5+6.675%-
Last 30 away (14)46.946.793.6+0.164%-
Last 10 (10)52.447.499.8+5.070%-
Last 5 (5)50.249.299.4+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)64.046.0110.0+18.0100%-
vs Similar (12)46.246.292.5+0.042%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)50.244.995.2+5.388%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 96.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀20%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.6 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 20% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.130.8
48.8%
50.2%61.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.96.5
32.7%
35.7%19.5
🏀 Free throws20.615.6
75.7%
77.0%15.6
They take 83.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 19.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 24% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
San Antonio Spurstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

San Antonio Spurs: 105.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.6 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers66.931.8
47.5%
50.2%63.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.27.9
41.1%
35.7%23.7
🏀 Free throws22.118.0
81.4%
77.0%18.0
They take 86.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 19.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 22% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Oct 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWLWLWLLWW
San Antonio Spurs
WWWLLLWLWW
#13
League position
#2
+2.2
Net rating
+8.4
101.2
Offensive rating
110.3
99.0
Defensive rating
101.9
48.9%
Effective FG%
50.7%
44.8%
Opp. effective FG%
48.1%
13.6%
Turnover %
10.0%
23.7%
Off. rebound %
22.9%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.26
32.7%
3-point %
41.1%
44.2%
Assist %
54.7%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence101.2 · 110.3Defence99.0 · 101.9Shooting48.9% · 50.7%3-point %32.7% · 41.1%Ball care13.6% · 10.0%Off. rebounds23.7% · 22.9%Free throws0.25 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Miami Heat   ■ San Antonio Spurs
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Miami Heat wins
9
San Antonio Spurs wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/16HCharlotte Hornets91-97
26/10/16AOrlando Magic108-96
15/05/16AToronto Raptors89-116
14/05/16HToronto Raptors103-91
12/05/16AToronto Raptors91-99
10/05/16HToronto Raptors94-87 OT
07/05/16HToronto Raptors91-95
06/05/16AToronto Raptors92-96 OT
04/05/16AToronto Raptors102-96 OT
01/05/16HCharlotte Hornets106-73
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/16HNew Orleans Pelicans98-79
28/10/16ASacramento Kings102-94
26/10/16AGolden State Warriors129-100
13/05/16AOklahoma City Thunder99-113
11/05/16HOklahoma City Thunder91-95
09/05/16AOklahoma City Thunder97-111
07/05/16AOklahoma City Thunder100-96
03/05/16HOklahoma City Thunder97-98
01/05/16HOklahoma City Thunder124-92
24/04/16AMemphis Grizzlies116-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeL0%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%0%100%
Points / game99.591.0108.0
Allowed / game96.597.096.0
Point differential+3.0-6.0+12.0
Avg total196.0188.0204.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
San Antonio Spurs
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game109.798.0115.5
Allowed / game91.079.097.0
Point differential+18.7+19.0+18.5
Avg total200.7177.0212.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Atlanta Hawks220100%109.085.5+23.5
2 San Antonio Spurs330100%109.791.0+18.7
3 Cleveland Cavaliers330100%105.392.7+12.7
4 Chicago Bulls220100%111.5100.0+11.5
5 Los Angeles Clippers220100%101.090.5+10.5
6 Oklahoma City Thunder220100%108.0103.5+4.5
7 Sacramento Kings32167%104.399.7+4.7
8 Charlotte Hornets32167%100.797.0+3.7
9 Boston Celtics32167%108.3106.7+1.7
10 Portland Trail Blazers32167%111.3110.3+1.0
11 Toronto Raptors21150%100.092.5+7.5
12 Detroit Pistons21150%99.595.5+4.0
13 Miami Heat21150%99.596.5+3.0
14 Denver Nuggets21150%110.0108.5+1.5
15 Houston Rockets21150%110.0109.0+1.0
16 Los Angeles Lakers21150%104.5105.0-0.5
17 Memphis Grizzlies21150%103.0104.5-1.5
18 Milwaukee Bucks21150%103.0107.5-4.5
19 Golden State Warriors21150%111.0121.5-10.5
20 New York Knicks21150%99.5110.5-11.0
21 Brooklyn Nets31233%109.3108.7+0.7
22 Utah Jazz31233%91.796.7-5.0
23 Indiana Pacers31233%108.3114.0-5.7
24 Minnesota Timberwolves2020%100.5104.0-3.5
25 Dallas Mavericks2020%109.5118.0-8.5
26 New Orleans Pelicans3030%98.3109.0-10.7
27 Phoenix Suns2020%102.0113.0-11.0
28 Orlando Magic3030%92.3107.0-14.7
29 Washington Wizards1010%99.0114.0-15.0
30 Philadelphia 76ers2020%84.5103.5-19.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat1925282799
San Antonio Spurs24282529106
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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