Milwaukee Bucks host the Atlanta Hawks on 15 November 2026 in the NBA, with the Hawks the clear favourite as the model rates them at 78% to win. The Bucks are 1-12 this season, averaging 106.2 points and conceding 120.2, while the Hawks are 7-6, scoring 118.2 and allowing 116.8, a stark contrast that explains the model's preference. Milwaukee's home record is 1-6, with 108.9 points for and 123.3 against, and they have lost their last five games, including a 99-107 defeat to Orlando and a 112-123 loss to Los Angeles. Atlanta's road record stands at 4-3, 116.3 points for and 111.6 against, and they have won three of their last five, notably a 124-121 victory over Brooklyn. The teams have split their ten meetings, the most recent being a 122-99 win for Atlanta on 14 March 2026. Pythia projects a 113-123 score, a total of 235.9, with the Hawks covering the 7.5-point spread 41% of the time and the over on the 232.0 line 58% of the time, and a 5% chance of overtime. The Hawks' recent win over Brooklyn suggests they will maintain their edge in this matchup.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (13) | 106.2 | 120.2 | 226.4 | -14.1 | 8% |
| Season at home (7) | 108.9 | 123.3 | 232.1 | -14.4 | 14% |
| Season away (6) | 103.0 | 116.7 | 219.7 | -13.7 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 102.3 | 117.6 | 219.9 | -15.3 | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 100.0 | 117.0 | 217.0 | -17.0 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (23) | 104.9 | 122.1 | 227.0 | -17.3 | 9% |
| vs Similar (7) | 117.7 | 114.4 | 232.1 | +3.3 | 57% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (13) | 118.2 | 116.8 | 235.0 | +1.3 | 54% |
| Season at home (6) | 120.3 | 123.0 | 243.3 | -2.7 | 50% |
| Season away (7) | 116.3 | 111.6 | 227.9 | +4.7 | 57% |
| Last 10 (10) | 116.2 | 119.2 | 235.4 | -3.0 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 122.8 | 121.4 | 244.2 | +1.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 106.8 | 116.9 | 223.8 | -10.1 | 31% |
| vs Similar (7) | 118.0 | 116.0 | 234.0 | +2.0 | 57% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 126.9 | 113.7 | 240.6 | +13.2 | 80% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 51.2 | 59.7 | 111.0 | -8.5 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 53.8 | 60.2 | 114.0 | -6.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 48.7 | 59.3 | 107.9 | -10.6 | 20% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 44.5 | 58.0 | 102.5 | -13.5 | 10% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.2 | 56.0 | 101.2 | -10.8 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (23) | 49.3 | 60.5 | 109.8 | -11.3 | 22% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 57.7 | 57.1 | 114.9 | +0.6 | 57% | - |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 59.7 | 58.5 | 118.1 | +1.2 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 56.1 | 58.2 | 114.4 | -2.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 62.8 | 58.7 | 121.4 | +4.1 | 62% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 59.4 | 61.3 | 120.7 | -1.9 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 62.0 | 63.6 | 125.6 | -1.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 54.6 | 60.0 | 114.6 | -5.4 | 38% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 61.6 | 57.3 | 118.9 | +4.3 | 71% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 64.9 | 57.3 | 122.2 | +7.6 | 70% | - |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks over 116.5 | 71.6% | 1.53 | 1.56 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +11.1pp |
| Atlanta Hawks -2.5 | 73.9% | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.35 | - | - | +8.2pp |
| Over 221.5 | 77.8% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +8.0pp |
| Atlanta Hawks -2 (3-way) | 71.2% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +7.6pp |
| Atlanta Hawks (regulation) | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.31 | - | - | +5.1pp |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 43.8 | 24.6 | 54.0% | 49.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 43.4 | 16.4 | 35.1% | 49.2 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 20.9 | 14.7 | 77.3% | 14.7 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 54.4 | 30.3 | 54.0% | 60.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 41.2 | 13.1 | 35.1% | 39.3 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 21.1 | 16.0 | 77.3% | 16.0 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 | Atlanta Hawks v Milwaukee Bucks | 122-99 |
| 05/03/26 | Milwaukee Bucks v Atlanta Hawks | 113-131 |
| 19/01/26 | Atlanta Hawks v Milwaukee Bucks | 110-112 |
| 30/03/25 | Milwaukee Bucks v Atlanta Hawks | 124-145 |
| 05/03/25 | Atlanta Hawks v Milwaukee Bucks | 121-127 |
| 08/02/25 | Atlanta Hawks v Milwaukee Bucks | 115-110 |
| 14/12/24 | Milwaukee Bucks v Atlanta Hawks | 110-102 |
| 05/12/24 | Milwaukee Bucks v Atlanta Hawks | 104-119 |
| 30/03/24 | Atlanta Hawks v Milwaukee Bucks | 113-122 |
| 03/12/23 | Milwaukee Bucks v Atlanta Hawks | 132-121 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Orlando Magic | 99-107 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Los Angeles Lakers | 112-123 |
| 11/11/26 | A | New York Knicks | 85-117 |
| 09/11/26 | H | Boston Celtics | 97-117 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Toronto Raptors | 107-121 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Boston Celtics | 102-109 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Minnesota Timberwolves | 100-112 |
| 01/11/26 | H | Cleveland Cavaliers | 111-136 |
| 29/10/26 | H | Houston Rockets | 100-132 |
| 27/10/26 | H | Indiana Pacers | 110-102 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Chicago Bulls | 117-125 OT |
| 10/11/26 | H | Los Angeles Lakers | 114-124 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Brooklyn Nets | 124-121 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Washington Wizards | 139-132 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Washington Wizards | 120-105 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Indiana Pacers | 108-104 |
| 31/10/26 | A | New Orleans Pelicans | 99-121 |
| 30/10/26 | H | Cleveland Cavaliers | 114-111 |
| 28/10/26 | H | Miami Heat | 117-129 |
| 27/10/26 | A | Houston Rockets | 110-120 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 8% |
| Home | LLLLL | 14% |
| Away | LLLLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 7 | 6 |
| Win % | 8% | 14% | 0% |
| Points / game | 106.2 | 108.9 | 103.0 |
| Allowed / game | 120.2 | 123.3 | 116.7 |
| Point differential | -14.1 | -14.4 | -13.7 |
| Avg total | 226.4 | 232.1 | 219.7 |
| Over 232 | 38% | 43% | 33% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWLL | 54% |
| Home | LWWWL | 50% |
| Away | LLWWL | 57% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 6 | 7 |
| Win % | 54% | 50% | 57% |
| Points / game | 118.2 | 120.3 | 116.3 |
| Allowed / game | 116.8 | 123.0 | 111.6 |
| Point differential | +1.3 | -2.7 | +4.7 |
| Avg total | 235.0 | 243.3 | 227.9 |
| Over 232 | 54% | 83% | 29% |
| Win by 10+ | 15% | 0% | 29% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (3) | 100% (2) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 8% | 0% | 14% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 119.5 | 106.2 | +13.2 | |
| 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 122.2 | 114.2 | +7.9 | |
| 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 83% | 114.2 | 103.1 | +11.2 | |
| 4 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 116.2 | 107.4 | +8.8 | |
| 5 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 111.2 | 109.4 | +1.8 | |
| 6 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 119.6 | 111.8 | +7.8 | |
| 7 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 118.3 | 106.8 | +11.5 | |
| 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 120.6 | 111.7 | +8.9 | |
| 9 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 67% | 115.7 | 110.2 | +5.4 | |
| 10 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 64% | 114.6 | 112.8 | +1.8 | |
| 11 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | 116.7 | 112.4 | +4.3 | |
| 12 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | 111.2 | 107.4 | +3.8 | |
| 13 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 118.2 | 116.8 | +1.3 | |
| 14 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 113.5 | 113.3 | +0.2 | |
| 15 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 118.7 | 119.8 | -1.2 | |
| 16 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50% | 109.8 | 103.7 | +6.1 | |
| 17 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 117.5 | 115.9 | +1.6 | |
| 18 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 45% | 111.7 | 116.1 | -4.4 | |
| 19 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 114.2 | 112.8 | +1.4 | |
| 20 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 108.3 | 112.8 | -4.4 | |
| 21 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 38% | 111.2 | 113.2 | -2.1 | |
| 22 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 33% | 98.6 | 109.6 | -11.0 | |
| 23 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 31% | 110.0 | 115.8 | -5.8 | |
| 24 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 29% | 115.9 | 124.9 | -9.1 | |
| 25 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 27% | 112.3 | 117.5 | -5.3 | |
| 26 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% | 110.2 | 116.4 | -6.2 | |
| 27 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% | 114.6 | 125.9 | -11.3 | |
| 28 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 8% | 108.2 | 120.9 | -12.8 | |
| 29 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 107.5 | 118.6 | -11.2 | |
| 30 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 106.2 | 120.2 | -14.1 |
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