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Milwaukee Bucks vs Atlanta Hawks Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 05 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 02:30
Final 113-131
38-25 33-41 18-32 24-33
Position#21
Record26-34
FormWWLLL
Points / game111.3
Allowed / game115.5
vs
Position#12
Record31-31
FormLWWWW
Points / game117.4
Allowed / game117.4
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Atlanta Hawks
30 Jan 2027
MIL v ATL
upcoming
15 Nov 2026
MIL v ATL
upcoming
04 Mar 2026
MIL113
ATL131
30 Mar 2025
MIL124
ATL145
14 Dec 2024
MIL110
ATL102
04 Dec 2024
MIL104
ATL119
02 Dec 2023
MIL132
ATL121
29 Oct 2023
MIL110
ATL127
14 Nov 2022
MIL106
ATL121
29 Oct 2022
MIL123
ATL115
09 Mar 2022
MIL124
ATL115
01 Jul 2021
MIL123
ATL112
25 Jun 2021
MIL125
ATL91
23 Jun 2021
MIL113
ATL116
24 Jan 2021
MIL129
ATL115
12 Apr 2020
MIL v ATL
upcoming
27 Nov 2019
MIL111
ATL102
07 Apr 2019
MIL115
ATL107
04 Jan 2019
MIL144
ATL112
17 Mar 2018
MIL122
ATL117
13 Feb 2018
MIL97
ATL92
24 Mar 2017
MIL100
ATL97
09 Dec 2016
MIL110
ATL114
15 Jan 2016
MIL108
ATL101
22 Feb 2015
MIL86
ATL97
27 Dec 2014
MIL85
ATL90
16 Apr 2014
MIL103
ATL111
25 Jan 2014
MIL87
ATL112
24 Mar 2013
MIL99
ATL104
23 Feb 2013
MIL102
ATL103
27 Mar 2012
MIL108
ATL101
23 Jan 2012
MIL92
ATL97
26 Jan 2011
MIL98
ATL90
27 Dec 2010
MIL80
ATL95
30 Apr 2010
MIL69
ATL83
26 Apr 2010
MIL111
ATL104
24 Apr 2010
MIL107
ATL89
12 Apr 2010
MIL96
ATL104
22 Mar 2010
MIL98
ATL95
08 Apr 2009
MIL105
ATL113
31 Jan 2009
MIL110
ATL107
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Atlanta Hawks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#13
L
99-118
99
118
-19
88avg 105
A10/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
116-108
116
108
+8
114avg 105
A12/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
110-93
110
93
+17
102avg 105
A13/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
139-118
139
118
+21
133avg 105
A21/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
94-122
94
122
-28
82avg 105
H22/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
128-117
128
117
+11
119avg 105
H25/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
118-116
118
116
+2
112avg 105
H26/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
98-127
98
127
-29
89avg 105
H28/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
L
97-120
97
120
-23
84avg 105
A01/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
81-108
81
108
-27
71avg 105
H03/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-27
32-24
20-36
25-31
20-24
32-27
36-32
28-25
30-25
37-30
22-18
21-20
33-38
38-27
32-31
36-22
27-22
24-38
22-32
21-30
30-29
33-29
26-35
39-24
33-33
29-30
31-31
25-22
30-38
27-39
26-26
15-24
32-30
34-21
23-36
8-33
20-30
23-27
22-26
16-25
222.7Avg total
108.0Scored
114.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (60)111.3115.5226.9-4.243%
Season at home (29)114.2117.3231.6-3.148%
Season away (31)108.6113.9222.5-5.339%
Last 10 (10)108.0114.7222.7-6.750%
Last 5 (5)104.4117.6222.0-13.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)106.7115.5222.2-8.840%
vs Similar (8)118.0114.4232.4+3.675%
vs Weaker (2)106.0111.5217.5-5.50%
This opponent (Atlanta Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Atlanta HawksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#26
W
121-119
121
119
+2
118avg 112
H06/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
119-126
119
126
-7
110avg 112
H08/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
116-138
116
138
-22
98avg 112
A10/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
107-110
107
110
-3
100avg 112
A12/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
117-107
117
107
+10
109avg 112
A20/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
97-128
97
128
-31
84avg 112
H21/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
115-104
115
104
+11
115avg 112
H22/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
119-98
119
98
+21
113avg 112
H25/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
126-96
126
96
+30
125avg 112
H27/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
135-101
135
101
+34
141avg 112
H01/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-31
31-29
31-36
29-23
35-32
25-28
30-38
29-28
34-41
22-40
31-25
29-32
27-35
22-23
26-31
32-21
28-26
32-27
28-31
29-23
16-29
35-28
24-30
22-41
32-30
28-26
29-31
26-17
35-20
25-23
40-21
19-34
37-26
39-30
22-24
28-16
44-25
31-33
28-27
32-16
229.9Avg total
117.2Scored
112.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (62)117.4117.4234.8+0.050%
Season at home (30)116.3116.5232.9-0.247%
Season away (32)118.4118.2236.5+0.253%
Last 10 (10)117.2112.7229.9+4.560%
Last 5 (5)118.4105.4223.8+13.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)117.6121.0238.6-3.440%
vs Similar (16)113.0115.1228.1-2.144%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)120.9110.7231.6+10.278%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +0.3+0.3Q3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: +2.4+2.4
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +0.3+0.3Q3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: +2.4+2.4
Milwaukee BucksAtlanta Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#13
W
54-51
54
51
+3
A10/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
52-51
52
51
+1
A12/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
67-55
67
55
+12
A13/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
71-65
71
65
+6
A21/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
51-60
51
60
-9
H22/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
63-58
63
58
+5
H25/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
62-63
62
63
-1
H26/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
57-77
57
77
-20
H28/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
66-51
66
51
+15
A01/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
43-57
43
57
-14
H03/03
NBA
117.4Avg total
58.6Scored
58.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.058.7114.7-2.740%-
Last 30 at home (13)55.561.7117.2-6.223%-
Last 30 away (17)56.456.4112.8+0.053%-
Last 10 (10)58.658.8117.4-0.260%-
Last 5 (5)58.261.2119.4-3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)53.960.0113.9-6.130%-
vs Similar (8)62.154.9117.0+7.275%-
vs Weaker (2)52.561.0113.5-8.50%-
This opponent (Atlanta Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Atlanta HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#26
W
61-60
61
60
+1
H06/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
D
60-60
60
60
+0
H08/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
56-81
56
81
-25
A10/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
49-58
49
58
-9
A12/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
60-53
60
53
+7
A20/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
51-57
51
57
-6
H21/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
60-56
60
56
+4
H22/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
60-43
60
43
+17
H25/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H27/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
75-58
75
58
+17
H01/03
NBA
119.0Avg total
60.8Scored
58.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.259.4119.6+0.857%-
Last 30 at home (15)59.257.5116.7+1.753%-
Last 30 away (15)61.161.3122.5-0.260%-
Last 10 (10)60.858.2119.0+2.660%-
Last 5 (5)64.454.0118.4+10.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)60.062.6122.6-2.660%-
vs Similar (16)59.159.0118.1+0.150%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)62.158.3120.4+3.867%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 108.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.2 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.425.6
54.0%
54.8%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.714.4
37.2%
35.8%43.2
🏀 Free throws17.113.6
79.5%
78.1%13.6
They take 86.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Atlanta Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atlanta Hawks: 117.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.529.0
53.2%
54.8%58.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.512.9
33.5%
35.8%38.7
🏀 Free throws26.020.5
78.8%
78.1%20.5
They take 93.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
LLLWWLWWWL
Atlanta Hawks
WWWWLWLLLW
#21
League position
#12
-6.8
Net rating
+4.3
109.6
Offensive rating
112.8
116.4
Defensive rating
108.5
54.8%
Effective FG%
52.0%
55.3%
Opp. effective FG%
52.5%
14.9%
Turnover %
12.3%
21.9%
Off. rebound %
28.1%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.28
37.2%
3-point %
33.5%
57.8%
Assist %
69.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence109.6 · 112.8Defence116.4 · 108.5Shooting54.8% · 52.0%3-point %37.2% · 33.5%Ball care14.9% · 12.3%Off. rebounds21.9% · 28.1%Free throws0.20 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Atlanta Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Milwaukee Bucks wins
4
Atlanta Hawks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/03/26HBoston Celtics81-108
01/03/26AChicago Bulls97-120
28/02/26HNew York Knicks98-127
26/02/26HCleveland Cavaliers118-116
25/02/26HMiami Heat128-117
22/02/26HToronto Raptors94-122
21/02/26ANew Orleans Pelicans139-118
13/02/26AOklahoma City Thunder110-93
12/02/26AOrlando Magic116-108
10/02/26AOrlando Magic99-118
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26HPortland Trail Blazers135-101
27/02/26HWashington Wizards126-96
25/02/26HWashington Wizards119-98
22/02/26HBrooklyn Nets115-104
21/02/26HMiami Heat97-128
20/02/26APhiladelphia 76ers117-107
12/02/26ACharlotte Hornets107-110
10/02/26AMinnesota Timberwolves116-138
08/02/26HCharlotte Hornets119-126
06/02/26HUtah Jazz121-119

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL43%
HomeLWWLL48%
AwayLWWWL39%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games602931
Win %43%48%39%
Points / game111.3114.2108.6
Allowed / game115.5117.3113.9
Point differential-4.2-3.1-5.3
Avg total226.9231.6222.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%31%16%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)57% (7)44% (9)
Overtime %5%10%0%
Atlanta Hawks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW50%
HomeLWWWW47%
AwayLWLLW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games623032
Win %50%47%53%
Points / game117.4116.3118.4
Allowed / game117.4116.5118.2
Point differential+0.0-0.2+0.2
Avg total234.8232.9236.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%30%34%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (17)38% (8)56% (9)
Overtime %2%0%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder62481477%118.7108.0+10.7
2 Detroit Pistons60451575%117.2109.5+7.7
3 San Antonio Spurs59421771%118.1111.4+6.7
4 Boston Celtics62412166%114.5107.1+7.3
5 Houston Rockets60382263%114.7109.4+5.3
6 Minnesota Timberwolves62392363%119.1114.5+4.6
7 New York Knicks61382362%116.6110.8+5.8
8 Cleveland Cavaliers63392462%119.1114.9+4.2
9 Los Angeles Lakers60372362%115.8114.9+0.8
10 Denver Nuggets62382461%120.5116.1+4.4
11 Toronto Raptors60352558%113.9111.9+2.0
12 Phoenix Suns60352558%112.5110.8+1.8
13 Philadelphia 76ers62342855%115.8115.9-0.1
14 Miami Heat61332854%120.1116.7+3.4
15 Orlando Magic58312753%114.6114.2+0.5
16 Golden State Warriors61313051%115.3114.1+1.3
17 Charlotte Hornets63323151%116.1112.3+3.8
18 Atlanta Hawks62313150%117.4117.4+0.0
19 Los Angeles Clippers60293148%112.1112.1+0.0
20 Portland Trail Blazers63303348%115.3118.3-2.9
21 Milwaukee Bucks60263443%111.3115.5-4.2
22 Chicago Bulls62253740%115.7120.0-4.3
23 Memphis Grizzlies61233838%115.6117.7-2.1
24 Dallas Mavericks61214034%113.5117.7-4.1
25 New Orleans Pelicans63194430%114.9120.2-5.3
26 Utah Jazz62184429%117.6125.5-7.8
27 Washington Wizards61164526%112.2123.0-10.8
28 Indiana Pacers61154625%111.4119.6-8.2
29 Brooklyn Nets61154625%106.8115.6-8.8
30 Sacramento Kings63144922%110.2121.1-10.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks38331824113
Atlanta Hawks25413233131
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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